The NIT and the play-in game

My advice to anyone betting the NIT:

Don't do it.

Why would you bet the NIT?

Why am I constantly reading people saying they're betting on "motivation" in the NIT? If these mid-majors getting snubbed come into the NIT so motivated, then why does the NIT Final 4 year after year consist of mediocre BCS conference teams? I give credit to Old Dominion for breaking through last year, but did you look at the teams they played en route? They got to start with a terrible Colorado team. Then they took down Manhattan and Hofstra and suddenly they were playing in MSG (where they then annihilated by Michigan).

Point being: who the hell knows which teams are motivated and which aren't. And even if you did know, that's only going to tell half the story. Personally I'd love to see an NIT Final 4 of Drexel, Missouri State, Air Force and Bradley. I think that would be a lot more exciting than say West Virginia, Syracuse, Kansas State and Florida State. But it's probably not going to happen.

It's so hard to "cap" motivation in meaningless exhibition games. I always laugh to myself when people on here make their college football bowl picks based on which team is "motivated" or "snubbed", etc. This year, Boise State probably felt somewhat "snubbed" and "underappreciated" and came out and upset Oklahoma. But then remember two years when Oregon was "snubbed" and "underappreciated" by the BCS, got stuck in the Holiday Bowl and properly laid an egg and lost despite being huge favorites?

You never know how these kids are going to react in games that don't mean a damn thing.

The play-in game:

Florida A&M vs. Niagara

What does anyone know about these two teams?

I know they both have cool jerseys and cool logos. I know A&M has a sweet marching band, which I'm assuming translates to having a sweet pep band as well. I remember A&M being stuck in this silly play-in game a few years ago.

Why do they do this, by the way? I understand they want to squeeze in one more at-large bid, but come on. There are always going to be "snubbed" teams. Honestly, would the NCAA feel worse this year if Clark Kellogg's "list of snubs" was "Drexel, Kansas State, Syracuse, Illinois" instead of just "Drexel, Kansas State, Syracuse". Would this cause a serious shift in the space-time continuum.

The NCAA tournament is great because of the novelty of it. And I think the play-in game really ruins the novelty for the kids on these two teams, one of them is going to miss out on the true NCAA Tournament atmosphere that you just can't get from a game between two nobody schools in front of a half-full crowd in Dayton on a Tuesday night. Why not make the play-in game between Arkansas and Illinois? Why not a 16-team play-in game tournament with all the top "bubble" teams? Why not put the game in Miami or Vegas or MSG so at least these kids can feel like they get some kind of reward of this?

But anyway, as for the game itself, those who are making their picks based on "motivation" are going to have a hard time here. See if you can guess which quote came from which head coach:

1) "If we're the 65th best team in this tournament this year, that surprises me. I don't think that's possible."
2) "We feel disrespected, I'm sure you'll be able to see when we play on Tuesday how disrespected we feel."

The answer: it doesn't matter. Though slight edge I suppose to quote #2, that sounds a little more "rallying" and "motivational."

Niagara seems to have most of the intangibles going for them. They feel a little more "snubbed" because they really properly deserved to be a straight 16 seed, if not a 15 seed. That is the interesting sideplot of this game: why is Niagara in it? Did the committee want to avoid yet another battle of black schools by putting in Jackson State as a straight 16? Or are they punishing the Purple Eagles for their off-court "discretions" earlier this year? Of course, if that was the case, I'd have to imagine the Gonzaga "Dude, the basketball is talking to me" Bulldogs would've been lower than a 10 seed.

Also, Florida A&M is likely tired, having to travel overnight after their victory on Saturday, while Niagara has been sitting at home since March 5th. Or maybe Florida A&M has the advantage because they're a bunch of viral 19-to-22 year olds and this is just keeping them focused while Niagara will be rusty?

I'm guessing there's not a lot of people in the general public making a play on this one, but the ones who are are heavily favoring Niagara laying the 8.5 points. Folks, that's three, arguably four possessions. Why would you lay three-to-four possessions in a game like this?

The play to make is either Florida A&M +8.5 or no play at all. I'll probably stick with the latter, though making a very small bet on Florida A&M +410 over at Matchbook is very enticing.


Update #1: By the way, I meant "virile" not "viral". Even "virile" was a silly word to use there, unless Tom Brady plays for them.

Update #2: The play-in game went about as expected. Congrats to all the Florida A&M backers, that must have been a barn-burner. Which makes you realize, why would you bet a game like that?

Everyone's "sure thing" Drexel got beat in the NIT. So last night you had two teams who were "better motivated" and "more rested" and they both failed to cover.

I probably won't make any plays today for the Thursday games, I don't like to make plays until game day. However, I will be breaking down every game in here as the day goes on and revealing which picks I likely will be playing.