The 2007 NHL playoffs kick off Wednesday night, and for the first time in league history, don't include last year's Stanley Cup Finals participants, as the Oilers and Hurricanes both came up short of post-season berths.
Yesterday we previewed the first 8 teams to be eliminated in the Stanley Cup first round. Today we go through the final 8 teams all the way to the eventual champion.
On to today's rankings:
8. Nashville Predators (eliminated by Ducks in 4): About now would be the standard time for the Paul Kariya or Peter Forsberg injury that derails the Predators title hopes. But the fact is, even with some solid goaltending, the Predators don't have the depth or speed to keep up at all with Anaheim, even if everyone on Nashville stays healthy.
7. New York Rangers (eliminated by Sabres in 6): After dispatching of one New York team (the Islanders in Round 1), the Sabres take care of another when they roll over the Rangers. Expect some close games early in the series, but the Rangers lack of depth will finally catch up to them late, and their defenders will have a hard time with the Sabres' wave-after-wave of attack. The Rangers were a great story this year, with veterans Jaromir Jagr, Brendan Shanahan and Michael Nylander providing leadership through tough injuries and lapses in defensive play. If the team can reload on defense next year and get a full season of consistent play from forward Sean Avery, they will be dangerous next season.
6. Ottawa Senators (eliminated by Devils in 6): Anything short of a Stanley Cup at this point is a failure for the Senators, and this year their post-season futility will end thanks to a tough 2nd round match-up with New Jersey. Expect the Senators explosive front line of Dany Heatley, Daniel Alfredsson and Jason Spezza to get theirs against Martin Brodeur, but the issue is how long the inexperienced Ray Emery can hold in goal for Ottawa. Emery has played terrific down the stretch, but he's young and he's playing with former starter Martin Gerber breathing down his neck. Expect Emery to come out with some nerves in the 2nd round and the Devils will take advantage, and by the time the Senators switch to Gerber, it will be too late.
5. Detroit Red Wings (eliminated by Stars in 7): A tough 1st Round match-up won't help Detroit much as they head into a confrontation with the big, physical Stars. The Red Wings did toughen up this season, especially by adding badass Todd Bertuzzi. But as usual, this is an older team, especially with Dominik Hasek in goal, and the longer this series goes, the worse off Detroit will be. This series will come down to Bertuzzi's play, if he can disrupt the action in front of the net and hassle Marty Turco, the Wings might come away with the series. Otherwise, Detroit could find it tough to score, especially as their defensive scorers start to wear down.
4. Dallas Stars (eliminated by Ducks in 6): Marty Turco has a chance this year to really pull a Peyton Manning and throw off the shackles of a playoff "choker" label. The problem is, up front the Stars are a little too seasoned and a little too shallow. This could be a last hurrah for Mike Modano and Eric Lindros, who have been playing well down the stretch. The Stars play a tight puck-control game that can work wonders come playoff time, but will probably wither against a Ducks team with too much talent on every line for Dallas to keep up with.
3. New Jersey Devils (eliminated by Sabres in 7): In one of the most curious GM moves in recent sports history (and remember, this recent history includes Isaiah Thomas), Devils GM Lou Lamorellio fired head coach Claude Julien and named himself head coach with only three games left in the schedule for a #2 seed. The level to which the Devils respond will of course define the length of their playoff run. Defense and goaltending usually win championships, and New Jersey has both in spades, with first-ballot HOF'er Marty Brodeur in net and John Madden and Brian Rafalski manning the blue line. Buffalo can't match New Jersey's defense and goaltending in terms of experience, but they can match it in talent and their deep and dangerous offense will be able to get key goals when the Devils can't.
2. Buffalo Sabres (eliminated by Ducks in 7): Dare we predict the Buffalo Sabres, a team with no championship in their rich history, a team whose heart has been broken on a regular basis in the Stanley Cup playoffs, a team with an eager fan base yearning for a title from one of its two disappointing pro teams as some kind of reward for lasting another harsh Buffalo winter; dare we predict the Sabres lose the Stanley Cup Finals to a hockey team from L.A. started somewhat in jest by Disney to cross-promote a kids movie with Emilio Estevez, unleashed one of the ugliest jerseys in pro sports history and is full of high-priced veterans and a French goalie named Jean-Sebastien? Yes, yes we do dare.
1. Anaheim Ducks (Your Stanley Cup Champions): Sorry Buffalo, but you'll have to join the Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs fans in one more year of wanting to hang yourselves. The Ducks are loaded at every position, well-coached and led by former playoff breakout goalie Jean-Sebastien Giguere. Another title for an Anaheim (L.A. Jr.) pro team may seem dubious, but the sweet poetic justice here is that the title will happen only after CEO Mickey Mouse sold the team, and the now contentious Ducks have shed their wholesome image and led the NHL in fighting penalty minutes this year. Watch for veteran Teemu Selanne to hoist the first Stanley Cup of his 17-year career and promptly beat somebody over the head with it, just as God intended the cup to be used.
(And if you need further reason to cheer for Selanne, check out his Babe Ruthian hat trick earlier this year in honor of a friend with cancer).
Quack! Quack! Quack! Quack!
Showing posts with label preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label preview. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Broken Tackle's NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Preview: Part 1
The 2007 NHL playoffs kick off Wednesday night, and for the first time in league history, don't include last year's Stanley Cup Finals participants, as the Oilers and Hurricanes both came up short of post-season berths.Over the next two days, we'll be ranking the 16 playoff teams in the order by which they'll be eliminated from this year's playoffs. Today we start with the 8 teams getting eliminated in Round 1, tomorrow will be the final 8 teams up to the Stanley Cup champions.
So break out your dead octopi and start growing your playoff beard, it's Stanley Cup time!
16. New York Islanders (eliminated by Sabres in 4): Congratulations to the Islanders on scratching and clawing your way into the playoffs, now enjoy getting decimated by the Sabres. It is hard not to cheer for the Islanders in this series. They're coached by former spurned Sabres coach Ted Nolan, they had to run the table in their final four games to reach the playoffs, they're lead by Oilers cast-off Ryan Smyth and due to injury, their starting goalie is Wade Dubielewicz, a minor league call up who answers to the nickname "Doobie" and has Yoda painted on his mask. The Islanders physicality might allow them to steal a game at home, but beyond that, the Sabres' speed and depth is way too much to overcome.
15. Minnesota Wild (eliminated by Ducks in 5): Coach Jacques Lemaire knows how to slow down speedy opponents and the Ducks could play right into his hands with their wide-open offense. Unfortunately Lemaire's Wild team just doesn't have the talent to hang with Anaheim for too long. The Minnesota offense is too dependent on Martin Gaborik, and he can most likely be neutralized by the Ducks' physical defensemen. Replacement goalie Niklas Backstrom will keep most games close, but the Wild will not be able to generate enough offense to fulfill Lemaire's strategy.
14. Tampa Bay Lightning (eliminated by Devils in 6): The Lightning boast one of the league's top lines, with NHL leading-scorer Vincent LaCavalier, Martin St. Louis and Brad Richards; the three stars of Tampa Bay's '04 Stanley Cup victory. Unfortunately, it's quite a drop-off in talent after those three, most of the rest of the team struggled to really score or defend all season. Goalie Johan Holmqvist showed some flashes this year, but he's inconsistent and has no previous playoff experience. Meanwhile, you get the sense that Marty Brodeur knows he has limited chances left to win his fourth Stanley Cup title. The Devils trademark pressure defense will limit any chances for Tampa Bay beyond their first line, and Brodeur should shut them down effectively enough for New Jersey to lose no more than a game or two.
13. San Jose Sharks (eliminated by Predators in 6): The Sharks have a little bit of history against them this year. This is the third time in the past decade that they enter a playoff re-match in back-to-back years. The last two times, they won the first series and then fell in the ensuing series. Nashville reminds us an awful lot of last year's Hurricanes squad, led by veteran free agent veterans Paul Kariya and Peter Forsberg mixed with young stars Alexander Radulov and David Legwand. They even have an unheralded backup goalie, Chris Mason, set to fill in for the hobbled starter, Tomas Vokoun. The Sharks will need big scoring days from Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton to compete.
12. Pittsburgh Penguins (eliminated by Senators in 6): Don't get it twisted, if David Stern was running the NHL, Sidney Crosby and the Penguins would be making a run to at least the Eastern Conference Finals. But with Gary Bettman in charge, the young megastar and his talented prodigy teammates (Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal) are likely to fall in the first round to the deeper and more experienced team from Ottawa. If the Penguins are to make a run, they'll need some major production from their playoff neophyte goalie, Marc-Andre Fleury.
11. Vancouver Canucks (eliminated by Stars in 6): This will likely be the lowest scoring series in the entire playoffs, as both teams have struggled to put the puck in the net late in the year. Dallas has been beset by injuries, and is trying to shake the "choker" label of veteran goalie Marty Turco and forward Eric Lindros. Luckily for Lindros, he isn't asked to carry this team, but Turco will be the focal point night-in-and-night-out. The Stars have a favorable draw here, even as the lower seed, as the Canucks feature a green goalie in Robert Luongo. Even though Luongo played lights-out much of the season, this is his first playoff appearance and the Canucks don't have enough scoring options to cover his ass.
10. Calgary Flames (eliminated by Red Wings in 7): It could be deja vu for Detroit, once again entering the playoffs as the #1 seed in the West only to face a tough, physical, well-coached #8 seed in the first round. Last year the Wings were eliminated by the eventual Western Conference champion Oilers. It's tempting to say they fall again to the Flames, but Detroit bulked up and hardened in the off-season to prepare for just such a series. Dominik Hasek vs. Mikka Kiprusoff is probably the best goalie match-up of the first round. Unfortunately for Calgary, it's hard to imagine where their scoring will come from outside of Jarome Iginla.
9. Atlanta Thrashers (eliminated by Rangers in 7): The Thrashers and Rangers are two very similar teams: solid, veteran forwards; unheralded defenders; inexperienced goalies. Give the edge to the Rangers in the defensive department in this series, and that will likely be the difference. We also like the fact that Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist has at least one season of playoff experience under his belt. Look for big games from Rangers forwards Sean Avery and Martin Straka to overcome the Thrashers explosiveness of Ilya Kovalchuk and Keith Tkachuk. By the way, even though we expect the Rangers to win, we are cheering for the Thrashers in these playoffs simply on the basis that not only is Lil' Jon a fan, he actually has a blog dedicated to the team.
2nd round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals coming tomorrow!
Friday, March 30, 2007
9 Reasons to Be Excited for Baseball Opening Day
Because eight reasons would be too sparse, and ten would be too excessive and well-rounded...1) Carl Pavano is the Yankees' opening day starter. That's right folks, a $200 million payroll and their opening day starter has a career record of 61-64 with an ERA of 4.27 and hasn't pitched since June of 2005. Everybody point and laugh while you have the chance.
2) The arms of the Detroit Tigers pitchers might just collectively fall off. We've seen this trend the past few years without fail. Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke have never been the same since the '04 playoffs. The White Sox pitching staff as a whole last year looked about as energetic as John Kruk after a twelve-pack and three extra value menus. Kenny Rogers has already been shut down for half the year. Look for Tigers' young arms to struggle as well. Also keep an eye on the Cardinals' former "ace" Jeff Weaver being an utter failure in Seattle.
3) If you have Direct TV you can watch every game. If you don't, then Bud Selig says to go fuck yourself. (And go fuck your grandma while you're at it).
4) Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies fans have reason to hope their teams will reach the playoffs this year. And there's nothing funnier than watching Cubs and Philly fans being put on suicide watch by mid-June when their team inevitably fails.
5) Johan Santana is the balls. He's pitching better than anyone since Pedro circa '99. And his window of legendary opportunity is closing shut.
6) The trading deadline will fill us all with false hope for a blockbuster. And then shatter our anticipation once again, when we remember there's nothing in the sports world more overhyped in the internet age than the trading deadline (except arguably, drafts). Just so you know: Andruw Jones, Ichiro, Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Zambrano will be amongst the names ballied about as trade bait this year.
7) The AL Central and NL Central are wide open. The AL Central because so many teams have so much talent (Santana, Morneau, Mauer, Sabathia, Hafner, Sizemore, Zumaya, Sheffield, Konerko, Dye) and NL Central because so many teams completely lack talent.
8) MLB and Bud Selig have to face the Barry Bonds issue. No matter what your opinion of Barry Bonds (hatred level, utter hatred level, homicidal hatred level, member-of-the-media level), he's going to break Hank Aaron's record this year, and it's going to be hilarious. It's going to be hilarious because Bud Selig and the other MLB brass will have to acknowledge it while at the same time trying to keep their distance from it.
9) Because. No Olympics this summer. No World Cup either. What the fuck else are you going to do in between the NBA Finals and the NFL preseason?
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: North Carolina vs. Southern Cal
(1) North Carolina -8 vs. (5) Southern Cal (O/U: 149.5)
The final game of the Sweet 16 round features some of the most exciting young talent in the country, as Ty Lawson, Brandan Wright and North Carolina take on Taj Gibson, Nick Young and USC.
Tyler Hansbrough played out of his mind against Michigan State, single-handedly fending off the Spartans at times, and looking much more comfortable without his schnozaroo mask on. But anyone who's followed the Tar Heels the last couple years know Hansbrough can be very streaky and UNC very well might need their other talented youngsters to take this game over. Hansbrough might have his hands full on both ends of the court with USC freshman big man Taj Gibson.
USC had a very interesting year, it started in tragedy with the shooting death of standout Ryan Francis, continued with the surprising and possibly shady recruiting of O.J. Mayo, and the Trojans had one of their best seasons in a long time under Tim Floyd, who is probably just happy to no longer be known primarily as "The Guy stuck with the Bulls after Jordan and Pippen left town" (similar to fellow Trojan faculty member Pete Carroll, happy to shed his image as "The Guy who almost ran the Patriots into the ground between Parcells and Belichick").
The Trojans play some stout defense, similar to their Bruin counterparts in Westwood. They can, however, suffer an occasional lapse, as they did in the Pac-10 title game vs. Oregon. North Carolina isn't nearly as tough on the defensive end, but they'll pressure you and pressure you well with Roy Williams bringing in wave-after-wave of subs to wear down the opposition. They're also an excellent rebounding team, something USC might struggle with.
Battle of the Mascots: Trojans are totally hot right now, with the success of 300. Tar Heels refers simply to inhabitants of the state North Carolina. So, a bunch of ancient warriors with a big wooden horse or a bunch of hillbillies with bare feet and their pet rams. Surprisingly closer than you'd think. Edge: Even
Battle of the Famous Alumni: UNC can claim Peter Gammons, Andy Griffith, Lewis Black, Julius Peppers, Dan "MTV Sports" Cortese and old what's-his-name, the guy who's GM of the Bobcats now. USC has all the typical athletes (Marcus Allen, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Lott), actors (Will Ferrell, Forest Whitaker, Tom Selleck), directors (George Lucas, John Carpenter, Ron Howard), hot chicks that Matt Leinart has probably nailed (Kelly Preston, Lisa Ling, Sophia Bush) and murderers (O.J. Simpson) you'd expect. Also, Neil Armstrong. Dude went to the fuckin' moon. Edge: USC
The play to make: A lot will depend on whether UNC can use their pressure defense to rattle USC and force them into some turnovers. Because if USC can hang around and keep this game close, their defensive prowess will be a serious advantage late in the game, when the Tar Heels might struggle to get stops in the half-court. The 8 points seems like a lot, but if you expect UNC to win, you're expecting them to probably cover the number and vice versa... if you expect USC to cover, you're probably expecting them to win. Play: USC +8 (medium confidence); Under 149.5 (low confidence)
Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: Oregon vs. UNLV
(3) Oregon -2.5 vs. (7) UNLV (O/U: 140)
No matter who wins, this one should be good. How could you not like a team from Oregon with a pissed-off Donald Duck as their mascot, arguably the ugliest uniforms in the history of mankind, a coach named Ernie and a PG named Aaron Brooks who's actually clutch under pressure and doesn't throw the ball the opposite length of the court. And they're trying to become the first school from Oregon to reach the Final 4 since the Oregon State Beavers in 1963 (I didn't even realize we had discovered Oregon by then. Did everyone on the team have cholera and dysentery or drown trying to "ford" the river to the Final 4?).
Or how could you not enjoy a team from Las Vegas nicknamed the Runnin' Rebels (seriously, has there ever been a bigger "fuck you" to the NCAA than putting a school in Las Vegas and nicknaming it the Rebels?). They're led by one guard named "Wink" and the other guard, Kevin Kruger, son of their legendary head coach Lon Kruger and delivering a serious blow to nepotism everywhere with every big game he's put up for the team. After being shunned by the selection committee (most "bracketologists" had them projected in the 4-to-6 seed range); they took down everyone's least favorite favorite, the boring-as-white-bread Wisconsin to reach the Sweet 16. They're looking for the school's first Final 4 trip since 1991, the heyday of Larry "The Original LJ" Johnson, Stacey Augmon, Jerry Tarkanian and the famous picture of several UNLV players sitting in a hot tub with Richie "The Fixer" Perry (here's a clue as to what Perry did for a living: he didn't "fix" toilets).
Battle of the Mascots: Ol' Reb looks like he's a badass, even when he's participating in activities Tim Hardaway wouldn't approve of. But we have great appreciation for a duck that's wearing a shirt and no pants. Edge: Oregon
Battle of the Famous Alumni: Even the alumni for both these schools are pretty cool. UNLV probably wins in the athlete department (Larry Johnson, Shawn Marion, Ickey Woods and Randall Cunningham... though Oregon does have some football legends (Gary Zimmerman, Dan Fouts and Norm Van Brocklin). The Rebels can also claim Jimmy Kimmel, Suge Knight, Kenny Mayne, one Maloof brother and the drummer for the Killers. Most people know Phil Knight, founder of Nike, attended Oregon. But how are you gonna sleep on the guy who wrote One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (Ken Kesey) and the guy who wrote Fight Club (Chuck Palahniuk). You're not, that's how. Edge: Oregon
The play to make: Oregon hasn't really been challenged, so to speak, in the first two rounds. They had a tough game against Miami (OH) but the outcome was never really in doubt, and they followed it with a cake-walk against Winthrop (this is following double-digit Pac-10 tournament wins over Arizona, Cal and USC) . UNLV, meanwhile, had tough match-ups with Georgia Tech and Wisconsin come down to the final minute (following a tough MWC title win over BYU). Neither team has lost since February 22nd, so something has to give here. UNLV matches up pretty well here, they can run a little bit with Oregon if need be, but would prefer to draw them into a half-court game and limit possessions. Miami and Winthrop did show at times that Oregon can be suckered into playing outside their comfort zone. Play: UNLV +2.5 (medium confidence); Under 140 (medium confidence)
No matter who wins, this one should be good. How could you not like a team from Oregon with a pissed-off Donald Duck as their mascot, arguably the ugliest uniforms in the history of mankind, a coach named Ernie and a PG named Aaron Brooks who's actually clutch under pressure and doesn't throw the ball the opposite length of the court. And they're trying to become the first school from Oregon to reach the Final 4 since the Oregon State Beavers in 1963 (I didn't even realize we had discovered Oregon by then. Did everyone on the team have cholera and dysentery or drown trying to "ford" the river to the Final 4?).
Or how could you not enjoy a team from Las Vegas nicknamed the Runnin' Rebels (seriously, has there ever been a bigger "fuck you" to the NCAA than putting a school in Las Vegas and nicknaming it the Rebels?). They're led by one guard named "Wink" and the other guard, Kevin Kruger, son of their legendary head coach Lon Kruger and delivering a serious blow to nepotism everywhere with every big game he's put up for the team. After being shunned by the selection committee (most "bracketologists" had them projected in the 4-to-6 seed range); they took down everyone's least favorite favorite, the boring-as-white-bread Wisconsin to reach the Sweet 16. They're looking for the school's first Final 4 trip since 1991, the heyday of Larry "The Original LJ" Johnson, Stacey Augmon, Jerry Tarkanian and the famous picture of several UNLV players sitting in a hot tub with Richie "The Fixer" Perry (here's a clue as to what Perry did for a living: he didn't "fix" toilets).
Battle of the Mascots: Ol' Reb looks like he's a badass, even when he's participating in activities Tim Hardaway wouldn't approve of. But we have great appreciation for a duck that's wearing a shirt and no pants. Edge: Oregon
Battle of the Famous Alumni: Even the alumni for both these schools are pretty cool. UNLV probably wins in the athlete department (Larry Johnson, Shawn Marion, Ickey Woods and Randall Cunningham... though Oregon does have some football legends (Gary Zimmerman, Dan Fouts and Norm Van Brocklin). The Rebels can also claim Jimmy Kimmel, Suge Knight, Kenny Mayne, one Maloof brother and the drummer for the Killers. Most people know Phil Knight, founder of Nike, attended Oregon. But how are you gonna sleep on the guy who wrote One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (Ken Kesey) and the guy who wrote Fight Club (Chuck Palahniuk). You're not, that's how. Edge: Oregon
The play to make: Oregon hasn't really been challenged, so to speak, in the first two rounds. They had a tough game against Miami (OH) but the outcome was never really in doubt, and they followed it with a cake-walk against Winthrop (this is following double-digit Pac-10 tournament wins over Arizona, Cal and USC) . UNLV, meanwhile, had tough match-ups with Georgia Tech and Wisconsin come down to the final minute (following a tough MWC title win over BYU). Neither team has lost since February 22nd, so something has to give here. UNLV matches up pretty well here, they can run a little bit with Oregon if need be, but would prefer to draw them into a half-court game and limit possessions. Miami and Winthrop did show at times that Oregon can be suckered into playing outside their comfort zone. Play: UNLV +2.5 (medium confidence); Under 140 (medium confidence)
Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: Georgetown vs. Vanderbilt
(2) Georgetown -7.5 vs. (6) Vanderbilt (O/U: 131)
The Big East champs continue their quest for their first Final 4 trip in 22 years. The Commodores meanwhile, are looking for only their second Elite 8 trip in school history (the first coming in 1965).
These teams met on Vandy's home floor on November 15th, with Georgetown cruising to an 86-70 victory. A lot has changed since then, obviously. Senior PF Derrick Byers is the reigning SEC Player of the Year, and with good reason. The do-it-all transfer from Virginia has led this team on both ends of the court, and came up huge in the 2nd Half come-from-behind victory over Washington State. But the key for Vanderbilt is their outside shooting, if the shots aren't falling they're not a strong enough defensive team to keep themselves hanging in the game. They don't want too much pressure on Byers to carry the entire offense.
Georgetown was a vogue Final 4 pick heading into the tournament and with good reason. Their back-court really came together late in the year, and that's when the team gelled. The match-ups of the guards will be interesting in this game. One major advantage Vanderbilt had over Washington State was the size of their guards disrupting the Cougars' outside shooting. Georgetown is not a team that relies heavily on the outside shot, but they do have two guards who will be undersized in this game. The Jeff Green-Derrick Byers match-up could be a classic. Two players who didn't get quite as much attention but are styled in the Kevin Durant mode, oversized wing players who can do all the big things and little things to help their team win.
Battle of the Mascots: Though their mascot is a goofy looking bulldog, a Hoya is defined as a tropical plant. We're assuming Commodores is referring the naval rank, but in our fantasies Vanderbilt University named itself after the seminal Lionel Richie-fronted 70's soul band famous from bringing us "Brick House." Edge: Vanderbilt
Battle of the Famous Alumni: Unfortunately though, Lionel Richie did not attend Vanderbilt. They can, however, claim Al Gore, David Brinkley, Amy Grant and the legendary Will Perdue (maybe the worst player in NBA history with 4 championship rings). Party. Georgetown has Dikembe Mutumbo, Bill Clinton and... fuck, does it even really matter? Dikembe Mutumbo and Bill Clinton! Edge: Georgetown
The play to make: Vanderbilt already toppled one well-coached well-balanced team in the 2nd Round, can they make it rain again? Most likely not, but laying more than two possessions in a game that could go either way is a terrible idea. The defense will tighten up in the 1st Half, but I expect both teams to open it up in the 2nd. Play: Vanderbilt +7.5 (low confidence); Under 131 (low confidence)
The Big East champs continue their quest for their first Final 4 trip in 22 years. The Commodores meanwhile, are looking for only their second Elite 8 trip in school history (the first coming in 1965).
These teams met on Vandy's home floor on November 15th, with Georgetown cruising to an 86-70 victory. A lot has changed since then, obviously. Senior PF Derrick Byers is the reigning SEC Player of the Year, and with good reason. The do-it-all transfer from Virginia has led this team on both ends of the court, and came up huge in the 2nd Half come-from-behind victory over Washington State. But the key for Vanderbilt is their outside shooting, if the shots aren't falling they're not a strong enough defensive team to keep themselves hanging in the game. They don't want too much pressure on Byers to carry the entire offense.
Georgetown was a vogue Final 4 pick heading into the tournament and with good reason. Their back-court really came together late in the year, and that's when the team gelled. The match-ups of the guards will be interesting in this game. One major advantage Vanderbilt had over Washington State was the size of their guards disrupting the Cougars' outside shooting. Georgetown is not a team that relies heavily on the outside shot, but they do have two guards who will be undersized in this game. The Jeff Green-Derrick Byers match-up could be a classic. Two players who didn't get quite as much attention but are styled in the Kevin Durant mode, oversized wing players who can do all the big things and little things to help their team win.
Battle of the Mascots: Though their mascot is a goofy looking bulldog, a Hoya is defined as a tropical plant. We're assuming Commodores is referring the naval rank, but in our fantasies Vanderbilt University named itself after the seminal Lionel Richie-fronted 70's soul band famous from bringing us "Brick House." Edge: Vanderbilt
Battle of the Famous Alumni: Unfortunately though, Lionel Richie did not attend Vanderbilt. They can, however, claim Al Gore, David Brinkley, Amy Grant and the legendary Will Perdue (maybe the worst player in NBA history with 4 championship rings). Party. Georgetown has Dikembe Mutumbo, Bill Clinton and... fuck, does it even really matter? Dikembe Mutumbo and Bill Clinton! Edge: Georgetown
The play to make: Vanderbilt already toppled one well-coached well-balanced team in the 2nd Round, can they make it rain again? Most likely not, but laying more than two possessions in a game that could go either way is a terrible idea. The defense will tighten up in the 1st Half, but I expect both teams to open it up in the 2nd. Play: Vanderbilt +7.5 (low confidence); Under 131 (low confidence)
Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: Florida vs. Butler
(1) Florida -10.5 vs. (5) Butler (O/U: 125)
Joakim Noah and the Gators roll into the Sweet 16, coming off a tougher-than-expected victory over Purdue. Butler got here a little more easily than expected, steam-rolling Old Dominion and then shutting down Maryland.
Butler's offense is highly predicated on its star guard, A.J. Graves. The small town boy from Switz City, Indiana is enjoying his 15 minutes right now, and will have to come up huge for the Bulldogs to have any chance against Florida. Even though the Gators have been showing a propensity lately to play down to their opponents, Butler is still going to need big games from Graves and his back-court mate Mike Green on the offensive end. They can't expect to keep the pressure on Florida on the defensive end the way SIU did against Kansas. There will be stretches where the Bulldogs have to just match Florida basket-for-basket to keep themselves afloat in this one.
As for Florida, it's no secret these guys are probably the best collection of talent and experience in the field this year. Billy Donovan probably remembers the last time the Gators met with the Bulldogs, it was the 1st Round of the 2000 tournament, and Florida needed a Mike Miller runner at the buzzer in overtime to bail them out of the 12-vs.-5 upset. The Gators went all the way to the Final 4 that year, only the second trip in school history. Butler, meanwhile, propelled themselves to become one of the leading mid-major programs in the country. And so they meet again, this time Butler is the 5 seed, Florida a 1 seed, likely on their way back to the Final 4 with the victory here and another historic quest for the school's program.
Battle of the Mascots: Come on, now.
Battle of the Famous Alumni: Butler has a legendary author (Kurt Vonnegut), a legendary porn star (Hyapatia Lee) and a legendary cult leader (Jim Jones). Florida has Faye Dunaway, Emmitt Smith and Bob Vila. And, oh yeah, Jesse "The Bachelor" Palmer and Rex "Sex Cannon" Grossman. Also, Erin Andrews was a member of the dance team... but Jesse Palmer probably soiled her in college, so f that. Edge: Butler
The play to make: This is a tough one, because Butler doesn't have the defensive prowess that allowed SIU to hang with Kansas. The Bulldogs do typically play in low scoring games, but that's more of a credit to their ability to set a slow tempo with their offense, though their pressure defense is nothing to sneeze at. Florida had a tough time with a Purdue team that plays a similar style, but you get the feeling the Gators can pick their final score in this one. Still, 10.5 is a lot of points to ask for in what could be a very low scoring game. Play: Butler +10.5 (low confidence); Over 125 (low confidence)
Joakim Noah and the Gators roll into the Sweet 16, coming off a tougher-than-expected victory over Purdue. Butler got here a little more easily than expected, steam-rolling Old Dominion and then shutting down Maryland.
Butler's offense is highly predicated on its star guard, A.J. Graves. The small town boy from Switz City, Indiana is enjoying his 15 minutes right now, and will have to come up huge for the Bulldogs to have any chance against Florida. Even though the Gators have been showing a propensity lately to play down to their opponents, Butler is still going to need big games from Graves and his back-court mate Mike Green on the offensive end. They can't expect to keep the pressure on Florida on the defensive end the way SIU did against Kansas. There will be stretches where the Bulldogs have to just match Florida basket-for-basket to keep themselves afloat in this one.
As for Florida, it's no secret these guys are probably the best collection of talent and experience in the field this year. Billy Donovan probably remembers the last time the Gators met with the Bulldogs, it was the 1st Round of the 2000 tournament, and Florida needed a Mike Miller runner at the buzzer in overtime to bail them out of the 12-vs.-5 upset. The Gators went all the way to the Final 4 that year, only the second trip in school history. Butler, meanwhile, propelled themselves to become one of the leading mid-major programs in the country. And so they meet again, this time Butler is the 5 seed, Florida a 1 seed, likely on their way back to the Final 4 with the victory here and another historic quest for the school's program.
Battle of the Mascots: Come on, now.
Battle of the Famous Alumni: Butler has a legendary author (Kurt Vonnegut), a legendary porn star (Hyapatia Lee) and a legendary cult leader (Jim Jones). Florida has Faye Dunaway, Emmitt Smith and Bob Vila. And, oh yeah, Jesse "The Bachelor" Palmer and Rex "Sex Cannon" Grossman. Also, Erin Andrews was a member of the dance team... but Jesse Palmer probably soiled her in college, so f that. Edge: Butler
The play to make: This is a tough one, because Butler doesn't have the defensive prowess that allowed SIU to hang with Kansas. The Bulldogs do typically play in low scoring games, but that's more of a credit to their ability to set a slow tempo with their offense, though their pressure defense is nothing to sneeze at. Florida had a tough time with a Purdue team that plays a similar style, but you get the feeling the Gators can pick their final score in this one. Still, 10.5 is a lot of points to ask for in what could be a very low scoring game. Play: Butler +10.5 (low confidence); Over 125 (low confidence)
Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: Ohio State vs. Tennessee
(1) Ohio State -4.5 vs. (5) Tennessee (O/U: 144.5)
After escaping against Xavier in Round 2, things don't get easier for TOBTTR (The only Big-10 team remaining). The Buckeyes face Tennessee in the 2nd Round and the Vols are hot. Tennessee has won 9 of its last 11 games, including big wins over Florida, Arkansas and Kentucky; and a tough 2nd-round victory over Virginia. Of course, Ohio State is hotter, winners of 19 straight, a winning streak that started on January 13th with a victory over, who else, the Tennessee Volunteers.
TOSU needed a big game from their guards to bail them out against Xavier and they got it, as Mike Conley took over down the stretch and in overtime to lead them to victory. But the game might have exposed Ohio State's greatest weakness, that Greg Oden can be somewhat neutralized if you open up the offense, spread the floor and run up-and-down the court.
This could play right into Tennessee's hands. The Vols love to play in transition, getting open 3 pointers and cuts to the basket. Look for them to utilize a lot of dribble penetration when they're forced into a half-court set to try and lure Greg Oden into foul trouble. Wayne Chism had a great game against Virginia, but won't be able to hold his own against Oden. However, Tennessee can attempt to draw Oden away from the rim by getting the ball to Chism early for a couple of his patented short jumpers.
Ohio State usually can adapt to their opponents and beat them at any pace. They might pull out a match-up zone in this one to try to cut off Tennessee's penetration lanes and keep Oden out of foul trouble. This is a very young Buckeyes team, and now that we've reached the big stage, they'll need solid coaching to keep them going. Can Thad Matta provide that? It's debatable.
Battle of the Mascots: This has to be the wussiest mascot battle of the 3rd Round. A droopy-eared hound vs. a giant fuckin' buckeye. I guess the dog would eat the buckeye and that would be that, huh? Edge: Tennessee
Battle of the Famous Alumni: Tennessee has its fair share of famous athletes (Peyton Manning, Reggie White, Justin Gatlin, Todd Helton). Also famous country singer Deanna Carter. Ohio State also has a laundry list of great athletes (Jerry Lucas, Jesse Owens, Cris Carter and Jack Nicklaus). And famous country singer Dwight Yoakam. So who would win in a fight, Deanna Carter or Dwight Yoakam? Your answer to that probably says a lot about you as a person. Edge: Ohio State
The play to make: It's hard to imagine Ohio State going down this early in the tournament, but they have had the closest call of any 1 seed thus far. The truth is, Tennessee is a dangerous match-up for the Buckeyes, this Vols team outgun Ohio State and Chris Lofton is playing like a man on a mission right now. If you're going to play Tennessee, definitely consider their money line as well. Play: Tennessee +4.5 (high confidence); Under 144.5 (low confidence)
After escaping against Xavier in Round 2, things don't get easier for TOBTTR (The only Big-10 team remaining). The Buckeyes face Tennessee in the 2nd Round and the Vols are hot. Tennessee has won 9 of its last 11 games, including big wins over Florida, Arkansas and Kentucky; and a tough 2nd-round victory over Virginia. Of course, Ohio State is hotter, winners of 19 straight, a winning streak that started on January 13th with a victory over, who else, the Tennessee Volunteers.
TOSU needed a big game from their guards to bail them out against Xavier and they got it, as Mike Conley took over down the stretch and in overtime to lead them to victory. But the game might have exposed Ohio State's greatest weakness, that Greg Oden can be somewhat neutralized if you open up the offense, spread the floor and run up-and-down the court.
This could play right into Tennessee's hands. The Vols love to play in transition, getting open 3 pointers and cuts to the basket. Look for them to utilize a lot of dribble penetration when they're forced into a half-court set to try and lure Greg Oden into foul trouble. Wayne Chism had a great game against Virginia, but won't be able to hold his own against Oden. However, Tennessee can attempt to draw Oden away from the rim by getting the ball to Chism early for a couple of his patented short jumpers.
Ohio State usually can adapt to their opponents and beat them at any pace. They might pull out a match-up zone in this one to try to cut off Tennessee's penetration lanes and keep Oden out of foul trouble. This is a very young Buckeyes team, and now that we've reached the big stage, they'll need solid coaching to keep them going. Can Thad Matta provide that? It's debatable.
Battle of the Mascots: This has to be the wussiest mascot battle of the 3rd Round. A droopy-eared hound vs. a giant fuckin' buckeye. I guess the dog would eat the buckeye and that would be that, huh? Edge: Tennessee
Battle of the Famous Alumni: Tennessee has its fair share of famous athletes (Peyton Manning, Reggie White, Justin Gatlin, Todd Helton). Also famous country singer Deanna Carter. Ohio State also has a laundry list of great athletes (Jerry Lucas, Jesse Owens, Cris Carter and Jack Nicklaus). And famous country singer Dwight Yoakam. So who would win in a fight, Deanna Carter or Dwight Yoakam? Your answer to that probably says a lot about you as a person. Edge: Ohio State
The play to make: It's hard to imagine Ohio State going down this early in the tournament, but they have had the closest call of any 1 seed thus far. The truth is, Tennessee is a dangerous match-up for the Buckeyes, this Vols team outgun Ohio State and Chris Lofton is playing like a man on a mission right now. If you're going to play Tennessee, definitely consider their money line as well. Play: Tennessee +4.5 (high confidence); Under 144.5 (low confidence)
Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: UCLA vs. Pittsburgh
(2) UCLA -3 vs. (3) Pittsburgh (O/U: 123)
Rarely do you get to see a college basketball game where one team is so much stronger than the other on the perimeter, while one is so much stronger than the other on the interior. Such is UCLA vs. Pitt, a game which could end up as a serious battle of attrition.
Pittsburgh is not the hard-nosed defensive team we typically think of when we think of the Panthers. This team can play tough on defense, but they can also score in bunches. They wore down an undersized VCU team early with some terrific post play from Levon Kirkland and Aaron Gray. But late in the game, the Pittsburgh guards wore down and VCU took advantage before Ronald Ramon surprisingly took the game over in overtime.
UCLA has struggled at times this year against teams with tough interior presences. This was on display in the regular season during losses to Stanford, Washington and West Virginia. But Pittsburgh also struggled mightily against teams with quick and deep back-courts, such as Louisville, Georgetown and Marquette.
So which side gives? Aaron Afflalo struggled for most of the game against Indiana, but came up huge in the clutch when the Bruins needed him. He and Darren Collison are arguably the best guard duo left in the tournament.
Battle of the Mascots: UCLA's Joe Bruin can sometimes look pretty tame, and can sometimes look pretty ferocious. Pitt's Panther looks like the sneaky type, but we can't forgive for having this perfect opportunity to viciously maul Mike Greenberg and not taking advantage of it. Plus, looking back at that first picture, you'd imagine Joe Bruin just shows his tame side to roll in the bitches. Edge: UCLA
Battle of Famous Alumni: UCLA has a pretty substantial list here, including Francis Ford Coppola, James Dean, Jack Black, Tim Robbins, the chick who played Winnie on the Wonder Years, a Hall-of-Famer in almost any sport you can imagine (Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Jackie Robinson, Arthur Ashe, Troy Aikman, Jackie Joyner Kersee and Rafer Johnson to name a few) and of course everyone's favorite drop-out, Jim Morrison. Pittsburgh has a pretty extensive list of football players and coaches (Dan Marino, Jimmy Johnson, Curtis Martin, Mike Ditka). But they also have Orrin Hatch. Fuck him. Edge: UCLA
The play to make: UCLA is the better team here, they play better defense, they're the better coached team, they're the more explosive offensive team, they're the better perimeter team, they're the more experienced team, they have the location advantage playing in California and most people expect them to win. And they're laying only 3 points. In other words, buyer beware all around. Play: UCLA -3 (low confidence); Over 123 (low confidence)
Rarely do you get to see a college basketball game where one team is so much stronger than the other on the perimeter, while one is so much stronger than the other on the interior. Such is UCLA vs. Pitt, a game which could end up as a serious battle of attrition.
Pittsburgh is not the hard-nosed defensive team we typically think of when we think of the Panthers. This team can play tough on defense, but they can also score in bunches. They wore down an undersized VCU team early with some terrific post play from Levon Kirkland and Aaron Gray. But late in the game, the Pittsburgh guards wore down and VCU took advantage before Ronald Ramon surprisingly took the game over in overtime.
UCLA has struggled at times this year against teams with tough interior presences. This was on display in the regular season during losses to Stanford, Washington and West Virginia. But Pittsburgh also struggled mightily against teams with quick and deep back-courts, such as Louisville, Georgetown and Marquette.
So which side gives? Aaron Afflalo struggled for most of the game against Indiana, but came up huge in the clutch when the Bruins needed him. He and Darren Collison are arguably the best guard duo left in the tournament.
Battle of the Mascots: UCLA's Joe Bruin can sometimes look pretty tame, and can sometimes look pretty ferocious. Pitt's Panther looks like the sneaky type, but we can't forgive for having this perfect opportunity to viciously maul Mike Greenberg and not taking advantage of it. Plus, looking back at that first picture, you'd imagine Joe Bruin just shows his tame side to roll in the bitches. Edge: UCLA
Battle of Famous Alumni: UCLA has a pretty substantial list here, including Francis Ford Coppola, James Dean, Jack Black, Tim Robbins, the chick who played Winnie on the Wonder Years, a Hall-of-Famer in almost any sport you can imagine (Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Jackie Robinson, Arthur Ashe, Troy Aikman, Jackie Joyner Kersee and Rafer Johnson to name a few) and of course everyone's favorite drop-out, Jim Morrison. Pittsburgh has a pretty extensive list of football players and coaches (Dan Marino, Jimmy Johnson, Curtis Martin, Mike Ditka). But they also have Orrin Hatch. Fuck him. Edge: UCLA
The play to make: UCLA is the better team here, they play better defense, they're the better coached team, they're the more explosive offensive team, they're the better perimeter team, they're the more experienced team, they have the location advantage playing in California and most people expect them to win. And they're laying only 3 points. In other words, buyer beware all around. Play: UCLA -3 (low confidence); Over 123 (low confidence)
Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: Memphis vs. Texas A&M
(2) Memphis +3 vs. (3) Texas A&M (O/U: 134.5)
The Memphis Tigers had quite a season under the radar in '06/'07. They went undefeated and untied through the weak Conference USA. They haven't lost since 2006, taking home a victory in their last 24 games in a row by an average of 19 points per game victory margin. The problem is, only 5 of their 33 regular season battles were waged against an honest-to-god tournament team (wins against Kentucky and Gonzaga, losses to Georgia Tech, Arizona and Tennessee).
A lot of pundits (yours truly included) expected the Tigers to flame out early in this tournament, but they're still standing in the 3rd Round, which is a testament to their tough defense and their unmatched athleticism. One the downside, this is a young team prone to inexperienced mistakes down the stretch and absolutely abysmal free throw shooting (62% in regular season).
The intrigue of this game might be Memphis' PG situation. They start freshman Willie Kemp because they like his speed and his outside shooting. But he typically steps out of the game late anyway, because he's maybe the worst FT shooting PG in NCAA history. Andre Allen is only 5-11, but he's an incredible man-to-man defender and may be getting more playing time in this game to try and neutralize Acie Law. Unfortunately, Allen is less of an offensive threat and almost just as god-awful as a FT shooter.
Memphis has some strength inside, but a lack of size, but the Aggies probably won't take advantage of that. This Memphis is very similar to the Louisville team that A&M defeated in Round 2. They did it by getting the Cardinals' big men in foul trouble early and then letting their guards wear down the help defense with dribble penetration. Expect more of the same here from Law and Dominique Kirk. It'll be interesting to see if A&M gets their center, Antanas Kavaliaskus more involved, he was a virtual no-show vs. Louisville.
Battle of the Mascots: So, what is an aggie? It's a type of marble, you know those little things kids played with like 50 years ago? We could see some type of scenario where the marbles are spread out across the ground and the tiger comically stumbles over them. But in the end, he's still a tiger. Edge: Memphis
Battle of Famous Alumni: A&M's list includes Lyle Lovett, Rip Torn, Chuck Knoblauch and a whole bunch of Miss USA, Miss Texas USA and Miss Teen USA winners. Memphis doesn't have much, but they do have Isaac Bruce, Penny Hardaway and the legendary Wink Martindale. Edge: A&M
What's the play to make: It's no surprise the public is willing to lay some points with the lower seed in this situation. Memphis has long been considered the most overrated of all the top seeds (even though they made it longer than Wisconsin), and A&M was a sleeper Final 4 pick for a lot of people. The fact is, Memphis matches up pretty well with Texas A&M, so this should be a close game. Rule of thumb is take the points in that situation, but it's also hard to pick against the Aggies. They seem like a team on a mission right now and they know if they can get past the Tigers, they match up incredibly well against Ohio State (or Tennessee if needed). I'm not expecting a lot of points in this game at all, look for something in the 65-62 final score range. Play: Texas A&M -3 (low confidence); Under 134.5 (medium confidence)
The Memphis Tigers had quite a season under the radar in '06/'07. They went undefeated and untied through the weak Conference USA. They haven't lost since 2006, taking home a victory in their last 24 games in a row by an average of 19 points per game victory margin. The problem is, only 5 of their 33 regular season battles were waged against an honest-to-god tournament team (wins against Kentucky and Gonzaga, losses to Georgia Tech, Arizona and Tennessee).
A lot of pundits (yours truly included) expected the Tigers to flame out early in this tournament, but they're still standing in the 3rd Round, which is a testament to their tough defense and their unmatched athleticism. One the downside, this is a young team prone to inexperienced mistakes down the stretch and absolutely abysmal free throw shooting (62% in regular season).
The intrigue of this game might be Memphis' PG situation. They start freshman Willie Kemp because they like his speed and his outside shooting. But he typically steps out of the game late anyway, because he's maybe the worst FT shooting PG in NCAA history. Andre Allen is only 5-11, but he's an incredible man-to-man defender and may be getting more playing time in this game to try and neutralize Acie Law. Unfortunately, Allen is less of an offensive threat and almost just as god-awful as a FT shooter.
Memphis has some strength inside, but a lack of size, but the Aggies probably won't take advantage of that. This Memphis is very similar to the Louisville team that A&M defeated in Round 2. They did it by getting the Cardinals' big men in foul trouble early and then letting their guards wear down the help defense with dribble penetration. Expect more of the same here from Law and Dominique Kirk. It'll be interesting to see if A&M gets their center, Antanas Kavaliaskus more involved, he was a virtual no-show vs. Louisville.
Battle of the Mascots: So, what is an aggie? It's a type of marble, you know those little things kids played with like 50 years ago? We could see some type of scenario where the marbles are spread out across the ground and the tiger comically stumbles over them. But in the end, he's still a tiger. Edge: Memphis
Battle of Famous Alumni: A&M's list includes Lyle Lovett, Rip Torn, Chuck Knoblauch and a whole bunch of Miss USA, Miss Texas USA and Miss Teen USA winners. Memphis doesn't have much, but they do have Isaac Bruce, Penny Hardaway and the legendary Wink Martindale. Edge: A&M
What's the play to make: It's no surprise the public is willing to lay some points with the lower seed in this situation. Memphis has long been considered the most overrated of all the top seeds (even though they made it longer than Wisconsin), and A&M was a sleeper Final 4 pick for a lot of people. The fact is, Memphis matches up pretty well with Texas A&M, so this should be a close game. Rule of thumb is take the points in that situation, but it's also hard to pick against the Aggies. They seem like a team on a mission right now and they know if they can get past the Tigers, they match up incredibly well against Ohio State (or Tennessee if needed). I'm not expecting a lot of points in this game at all, look for something in the 65-62 final score range. Play: Texas A&M -3 (low confidence); Under 134.5 (medium confidence)
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: Kansas vs. Southern Illinois
(1) Kansas -8.5 vs. (4) Southern Illinois (O/U: 125.5)
It's put up or shut up time for the young Jayhawks. After rolling past Niagara and Kentucky, Kansas faces their toughest test of the tournament in Southern Illinois (arguably their toughest test since losing to Texas A&M on February 3rd). The Jayhawks now own a 13-game winning streak, the 3rd longest in the country behind Ohio State (19) and Memphis (24).
These are two surprisingly similar teams. Both like to dictate pace with tight man-to-man defense and quality rebounding. Both have solid dribble penetration and outside shooting, but their offense can go cold if the jumpers aren't falling.
A few things have to go right for the Salukis to win this thing. They have to neutralize Kansas' transition offense and force them into jump shots in the half-court offense. Randal Falker has to play above his size (as he usually does) and match up with Julian Wright. Matt Shaw has to stretch the defense and keep Sasha Kaun away from the boards. And Jamal Tatum has to shoot lights-out while expending energy on the defensive end.
Battle of the Mascots: Jayhawks have the ability to fly but otherwise they seem like pacifists. Salukis are dopey looking dogs, but they are hunting dogs and they hunt by sight, so the unsightly blue bird shouldn't be difficult to track down. Edge: SIU
Battle of Famous Alumni: Bob Dole, Kirstie Alley, Paul Rudd and Wilt Chamberlain for Kansas. For Southern Illinois, it's Jim Belushi, Walt Frazier, Jenny McCarthy and the guy who played Shaft. But remember... Jim is the lame Belushi. Edge: Kansas
What's the play to make: This is a tough one to call. Normally, you shouldn't be backing an underdog unless you think they have a chance to win the game. It's been a rough tournament for underdogs... after covering in a remarkably low 7 out of 32 1st Round games, underdogs had a good run on Saturday, going 6-2 ATS, only to falter again on Sunday, going 3-5 ATS. So overall, underdogs are only 16-32 ATS so far this tournament (8-40 straight up). This is far-and-away the toughest team Southern Illinois has played this year, even though SIU is arguably the toughest defensive team Kansas has faced all year. The natural inclination in this game is to take the points, expecting a tough defensive battle. Even though I don't expect SIU to win, it's hard to argue against that play. The total seems like it's set low, and the public is biting, so the Under is a decent play. Play: Southern Illinois +8.5 (low confidence); Under 125.5 (medium confidence)
It's put up or shut up time for the young Jayhawks. After rolling past Niagara and Kentucky, Kansas faces their toughest test of the tournament in Southern Illinois (arguably their toughest test since losing to Texas A&M on February 3rd). The Jayhawks now own a 13-game winning streak, the 3rd longest in the country behind Ohio State (19) and Memphis (24).
These are two surprisingly similar teams. Both like to dictate pace with tight man-to-man defense and quality rebounding. Both have solid dribble penetration and outside shooting, but their offense can go cold if the jumpers aren't falling.
A few things have to go right for the Salukis to win this thing. They have to neutralize Kansas' transition offense and force them into jump shots in the half-court offense. Randal Falker has to play above his size (as he usually does) and match up with Julian Wright. Matt Shaw has to stretch the defense and keep Sasha Kaun away from the boards. And Jamal Tatum has to shoot lights-out while expending energy on the defensive end.
Battle of the Mascots: Jayhawks have the ability to fly but otherwise they seem like pacifists. Salukis are dopey looking dogs, but they are hunting dogs and they hunt by sight, so the unsightly blue bird shouldn't be difficult to track down. Edge: SIU
Battle of Famous Alumni: Bob Dole, Kirstie Alley, Paul Rudd and Wilt Chamberlain for Kansas. For Southern Illinois, it's Jim Belushi, Walt Frazier, Jenny McCarthy and the guy who played Shaft. But remember... Jim is the lame Belushi. Edge: Kansas
What's the play to make: This is a tough one to call. Normally, you shouldn't be backing an underdog unless you think they have a chance to win the game. It's been a rough tournament for underdogs... after covering in a remarkably low 7 out of 32 1st Round games, underdogs had a good run on Saturday, going 6-2 ATS, only to falter again on Sunday, going 3-5 ATS. So overall, underdogs are only 16-32 ATS so far this tournament (8-40 straight up). This is far-and-away the toughest team Southern Illinois has played this year, even though SIU is arguably the toughest defensive team Kansas has faced all year. The natural inclination in this game is to take the points, expecting a tough defensive battle. Even though I don't expect SIU to win, it's hard to argue against that play. The total seems like it's set low, and the public is biting, so the Under is a decent play. Play: Southern Illinois +8.5 (low confidence); Under 125.5 (medium confidence)
Monday, March 19, 2007
Broken Tackle's 2007 NFL Mock Draft
1. Oakland Raiders - QB Jamarcus Russell - LSURussell seems to be the consensus number 1 overall pick and with good reason. He's enormous, has a cannon for a right arm, can evade the rush, and has great accuracy. However, with Al Davis still making the decisions in Oakland he very well may draft a toaster. This is the same guy that passed up Matt Leinart for a safety just last year.
2. Detroit Lions - QB Brady Quinn - Notre Dame
Speaking of clueless GMs. The reports are that the Lions want to stay with Jon Kitna as their starting QB. That makes sense, blow 3 consecutive drafts on WRs and then stick with Kitna to get them the ball. However, they did pass up Leinart last year for an undersized OLB. Quinn was thought to be the #1 QB coming into the '06 season and really didn't do anything to change that except play on an overrated team.
3. Cleveland Browns - RB Adrian Peterson - Oklahoma
After finishing 2nd in the Heisman race as a freshman, Peterson's stock has dropped in some people's minds because of a few injuries. If the doctors clear him medically, Peterson should be a top pick. The Browns signed Jamal Lewis to a one year contract (probably so he won't run all over them for a change), so bringing in Peterson still makes perfect sense.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR Calvin Johnson - Georgia Tech
I don't even think the sky is the limit for this guy. He's got incredible hands, he's 6'5 240lbs., runs a 4.4 40, blocks in the run game, and constantly beat double and triple teams in college. John Gruden has always been an offensive minded coach and this is the perfect opportunity to get him a real threat in the passing game.
5. Arizona Cardinals - LT Joe Thomas - Wisconsin
As good as this looks on paper for the Cardinals, it is the Cardinals we're talking about. They got a top notch QB in Matt Leinart last year and now can get him some protection. Something just has to give though, I mean this is the Cardinals. Either Thomas' knee will explode or someone will trade up and get him just before their pick. I mean, come on, it's the Cardinals.
6. Washington Redskins - DE Gaines Adams - Clemson
Considering their lack of a pass rush last year, this is a perfect "need pick" for them. Adams may be a little smaller than the ideal, but he's still quick and able to get to the QB. Once again though, Dan Snyder, the Ghost of Joe Gibbs, and Tom Cruise are making this selection, so who knows who will be drafted.
7. Minnesota Vikings - WR Ted Ginn - Ohio State
They tried to get a raw receiver with blazing speed once before and that hasn't quite worked out yet. Ginn is another story though. This guy was extremely productive, versatile, and dangerous at OSU and would be a great downfield threat for whichever QB the Vikings suit up in '07.
8. Houston Texans - LT Levi Brown - Penn State
I've been trying and trying to figure out how the Texans will surprise everyone and completely blow yet another draft, but I don't think they could possibly pass up a potential franchise LT in Brown. However, a team that can pass up both Vince Young and Reggie Bush in the same draft can certainly blow this one as well.
9. Miami Dolphins - DT Alan Branch - Michigan
If this guy actually tried to play hard in college, he could have been a top 5 pick. He's huge and very athletic for his size, but just like the saying, size isn't everything (I swear). On potential alone this guy is a top 10 pick, but I'd consider this guy a gamble for sure.
10. Atlanta - DT Amobi Okoye - Louisville
He's a top 10 pick and he's only 19 years old. That's incredible. If he turns out to be a player in this league, and I think he will, he'll be able to sign several big time contracts. An interior line of Rod Coleman and Okoye will certainly help their lack of a pass rush. Too bad the nickname "Nigerian Nightmare" was already taken.
11. San Francisco - WR - Dwayne Jarrett - USC
This offense may actually be formidable next year. Jarrett moves just up the state and the Niners gain a big time play maker to add to their offense. The defense was helped quite a bit in free agency, but I bet they continue to address it in later rounds of this draft.
12. Buffalo - RB Marshawn Lynch - Cal
The Bills have had a stellar offseason so far losing several starting LBs and their #1 tailback. Now Marshawn Lynch gets to move from sunny California to not-so-sunny Buffalo. Sorry Marshawn, I wouldn't want to live their either.
13. St. Louis - DE Jamaal Anderson - Arkansas
Combine Anderson with Leonard "I'm fine to drive" Little and QBs in the NFC West may actually sweat a bit playing the Rams. The offense will continue to be a force with Bulger, Holt, Jackson, and of course the much needed white slot receiver in Drew Bennett; but I really can't remember the last time this defense was any good.
14. Carolina Panthers - S Laron Landry - LSU
If he does drop this far the Panthers are extremely lucky. If I'm the NFL genius I think I am, the Panthers have quite a player here at #14. With Landry patrolling the deep middle, this defensive backfield is loaded which will give Julius Peppers even more time to get to the QB.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - DE/OLB Jarvis Moss - Florida
I'm really sick of seeing the Gators. Call me bitter (I'm an OSU fan), but I hate that Gator Chop thing. Now this Gator will play for the Steelers so I can continue booing him, perfect, I needed someone to replace Joey Porter.
16. Green Bay - WR Robert Meachem - Tennessee
Since they're not going to get Randy Moss, they get to settle for Robert Meachem. If Favre remembers which jersey to throw to Meachem should be able to produce right away. He's got the size, the speed, and the hands to help this team make it to 2nd place in the worst division in football again.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars - DE Adam Carriker - Nebraska
Adam should fit in nicely next to John Henderson and Marcus Stroud on the Jaguars' D-Line. I wouldn't want to be a running back facing that line. The Jaguars have built themselves a nice defense, now, about that QB...
18. Cincinnati Bengals - CB Leon Hall - Michigan
They tried drafting Mother Theresa to help with their recent image problem, but she wasn't available. So instead they turn to the other DB tumbling down the draft. He may not have Deion Sanders' speed, but he'll help out with their awful run game and be a consistent player in the secondary; until he gets arrested.
19. Tennessee Titans - TE Greg Olsen - Miami
Nothing helps a young QB develop like a good safety valve to throw to. Olsen ran past all the other TEs during the combine and made himself several million dollars.
20. New York Giants - S Reggie Nelson - Florida
Reggie Nelson will make plenty of big play interceptions playing for the Giants. I mean, he'll make them in practice, Eli isn't Peyton.
21. Denver Broncos - WR Dwayne Bowe - LSU
Once Dre Bly settles down and quits whining, he'll stay in Denver and make the best CB combo in the league. Then the Broncos can turn their attention to their aging offense. Rod Smith was once catching passese from Moses, so his time in the league is just about done. If Bowe can catch the ball consistently, I hear that's important for WRs to do, he'll be a good player.
22. Dallas Cowboys - DB Aaron Ross - Texas
Ross is capable of playing corner or safety for the Cowboys. They definitely could use someone to cover the deep middle of the field and Ross should be perfect for that.
23. Kansas City - WR Sidney Rice - South Carolina
Whoever the Chiefs decide to make their starting QB needs someone to throw the ball downfield to. They've been using Tony Gonzalez as their only pass catching option for years and still haven't figured out that it's not enough. If they don't stretch the defense Larry Johnson is going to continue to get pounded every game and my fantasy team will suffer. We can't have that.
24. New England Patriots - CB Chris Houston - Arkansas
Hard working, tough as nails corner looks perfect for the Patriots. However, if they add depth to the secondary Bill Belichick's praise for winning despite an injury riddled team may slow down some. I'm sure ESPN will find something else to obsess over with him.
25. New York Jets - DE/OLB Charles Johnson - Georgia
Mangini follows Belichick's scheme and attempts to turn a DE into a pass rushing OLB in the 3-4. Maybe he can talk Chad Pennington into mimicking Tom Brady's every move and the cloning will be complete.
26. Philadelphia - C Ryan Kalil - USC
After trying unsuccessfully to sign LeCharles Bentley a year ago, the Eagles do what they do every year and draft a lineman. Unlike Bentley, Kalil may actually play in a game. If the Eagles are lucky enough for that to happen Kalil looks like a pretty sure-fire center.
27. New Orleans Saints - LB Patrick Willis - Ole Miss
The Saints get Reggie Bush last year and Pat Willis this year. Two cornerstones for this team for years to come. Willis is a play maker. Throughout his career at the great football factory of Ole Miss, Willis has made tackles all over the field and will be a great addition to the Saints.
28. New England Patriots - LB Paul Posluszny - Penn State
He just has to be drafted by the Patriots. He looks like a Patriot linebacker (he's white) and plays like one (he's good). And that's that.
29. Baltimore Ravens - OG Ben Grubbs - Auburn
The Ravens need O-Line help immediately. Jamal Lewis took a lot of blame for his run production slipping, but it's hard to run when there isn't anywhere to go. Grubbs looks like the best guard in the draft and should start immediately for them.
30. San Diego Chargers - WR Steve Smith - USC
A lot of teams need pass catching help and this is the year to draft them. The Chargers offense is great, but adding a receiver like Smith would really help Rivers attack defenses from multiple angles.
31. Chicago Bears - LB Lawrence Timmons - FSU
Whether Lance Briggs plays for the Bears ever again is pretty much up in the air. If he plays this year or not, he'll be gone at the end of the season and Timmons will be there to take over. Now, about that QB...
32. Indianapolis Colts - LB Jon Beason - Miami
They did win the Super Bowl, but I don't think anyone is arguing that the Colts need to improve their run defense. Adding to the need, Cato June signed with Tampa Bay this offseason. At the least they're hoping Beason can make up for that loss.
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
The NIT and the play-in game
My advice to anyone betting the NIT:
Don't do it.
Why would you bet the NIT?
Why am I constantly reading people saying they're betting on "motivation" in the NIT? If these mid-majors getting snubbed come into the NIT so motivated, then why does the NIT Final 4 year after year consist of mediocre BCS conference teams? I give credit to Old Dominion for breaking through last year, but did you look at the teams they played en route? They got to start with a terrible Colorado team. Then they took down Manhattan and Hofstra and suddenly they were playing in MSG (where they then annihilated by Michigan).
Point being: who the hell knows which teams are motivated and which aren't. And even if you did know, that's only going to tell half the story. Personally I'd love to see an NIT Final 4 of Drexel, Missouri State, Air Force and Bradley. I think that would be a lot more exciting than say West Virginia, Syracuse, Kansas State and Florida State. But it's probably not going to happen.
It's so hard to "cap" motivation in meaningless exhibition games. I always laugh to myself when people on here make their college football bowl picks based on which team is "motivated" or "snubbed", etc. This year, Boise State probably felt somewhat "snubbed" and "underappreciated" and came out and upset Oklahoma. But then remember two years when Oregon was "snubbed" and "underappreciated" by the BCS, got stuck in the Holiday Bowl and properly laid an egg and lost despite being huge favorites?
You never know how these kids are going to react in games that don't mean a damn thing.
The play-in game:
Florida A&M vs. Niagara
What does anyone know about these two teams?
I know they both have cool jerseys and cool logos. I know A&M has a sweet marching band, which I'm assuming translates to having a sweet pep band as well. I remember A&M being stuck in this silly play-in game a few years ago.
Why do they do this, by the way? I understand they want to squeeze in one more at-large bid, but come on. There are always going to be "snubbed" teams. Honestly, would the NCAA feel worse this year if Clark Kellogg's "list of snubs" was "Drexel, Kansas State, Syracuse, Illinois" instead of just "Drexel, Kansas State, Syracuse". Would this cause a serious shift in the space-time continuum.
The NCAA tournament is great because of the novelty of it. And I think the play-in game really ruins the novelty for the kids on these two teams, one of them is going to miss out on the true NCAA Tournament atmosphere that you just can't get from a game between two nobody schools in front of a half-full crowd in Dayton on a Tuesday night. Why not make the play-in game between Arkansas and Illinois? Why not a 16-team play-in game tournament with all the top "bubble" teams? Why not put the game in Miami or Vegas or MSG so at least these kids can feel like they get some kind of reward of this?
But anyway, as for the game itself, those who are making their picks based on "motivation" are going to have a hard time here. See if you can guess which quote came from which head coach:
1) "If we're the 65th best team in this tournament this year, that surprises me. I don't think that's possible."
2) "We feel disrespected, I'm sure you'll be able to see when we play on Tuesday how disrespected we feel."
The answer: it doesn't matter. Though slight edge I suppose to quote #2, that sounds a little more "rallying" and "motivational."
Niagara seems to have most of the intangibles going for them. They feel a little more "snubbed" because they really properly deserved to be a straight 16 seed, if not a 15 seed. That is the interesting sideplot of this game: why is Niagara in it? Did the committee want to avoid yet another battle of black schools by putting in Jackson State as a straight 16? Or are they punishing the Purple Eagles for their off-court "discretions" earlier this year? Of course, if that was the case, I'd have to imagine the Gonzaga "Dude, the basketball is talking to me" Bulldogs would've been lower than a 10 seed.
Also, Florida A&M is likely tired, having to travel overnight after their victory on Saturday, while Niagara has been sitting at home since March 5th. Or maybe Florida A&M has the advantage because they're a bunch of viral 19-to-22 year olds and this is just keeping them focused while Niagara will be rusty?
I'm guessing there's not a lot of people in the general public making a play on this one, but the ones who are are heavily favoring Niagara laying the 8.5 points. Folks, that's three, arguably four possessions. Why would you lay three-to-four possessions in a game like this?
The play to make is either Florida A&M +8.5 or no play at all. I'll probably stick with the latter, though making a very small bet on Florida A&M +410 over at Matchbook is very enticing.
Update #1: By the way, I meant "virile" not "viral". Even "virile" was a silly word to use there, unless Tom Brady plays for them.
Update #2: The play-in game went about as expected. Congrats to all the Florida A&M backers, that must have been a barn-burner. Which makes you realize, why would you bet a game like that?
Everyone's "sure thing" Drexel got beat in the NIT. So last night you had two teams who were "better motivated" and "more rested" and they both failed to cover.
I probably won't make any plays today for the Thursday games, I don't like to make plays until game day. However, I will be breaking down every game in here as the day goes on and revealing which picks I likely will be playing.
Don't do it.
Why would you bet the NIT?
Why am I constantly reading people saying they're betting on "motivation" in the NIT? If these mid-majors getting snubbed come into the NIT so motivated, then why does the NIT Final 4 year after year consist of mediocre BCS conference teams? I give credit to Old Dominion for breaking through last year, but did you look at the teams they played en route? They got to start with a terrible Colorado team. Then they took down Manhattan and Hofstra and suddenly they were playing in MSG (where they then annihilated by Michigan).
Point being: who the hell knows which teams are motivated and which aren't. And even if you did know, that's only going to tell half the story. Personally I'd love to see an NIT Final 4 of Drexel, Missouri State, Air Force and Bradley. I think that would be a lot more exciting than say West Virginia, Syracuse, Kansas State and Florida State. But it's probably not going to happen.
It's so hard to "cap" motivation in meaningless exhibition games. I always laugh to myself when people on here make their college football bowl picks based on which team is "motivated" or "snubbed", etc. This year, Boise State probably felt somewhat "snubbed" and "underappreciated" and came out and upset Oklahoma. But then remember two years when Oregon was "snubbed" and "underappreciated" by the BCS, got stuck in the Holiday Bowl and properly laid an egg and lost despite being huge favorites?
You never know how these kids are going to react in games that don't mean a damn thing.
The play-in game:
Florida A&M vs. Niagara
What does anyone know about these two teams?
I know they both have cool jerseys and cool logos. I know A&M has a sweet marching band, which I'm assuming translates to having a sweet pep band as well. I remember A&M being stuck in this silly play-in game a few years ago.
Why do they do this, by the way? I understand they want to squeeze in one more at-large bid, but come on. There are always going to be "snubbed" teams. Honestly, would the NCAA feel worse this year if Clark Kellogg's "list of snubs" was "Drexel, Kansas State, Syracuse, Illinois" instead of just "Drexel, Kansas State, Syracuse". Would this cause a serious shift in the space-time continuum.
The NCAA tournament is great because of the novelty of it. And I think the play-in game really ruins the novelty for the kids on these two teams, one of them is going to miss out on the true NCAA Tournament atmosphere that you just can't get from a game between two nobody schools in front of a half-full crowd in Dayton on a Tuesday night. Why not make the play-in game between Arkansas and Illinois? Why not a 16-team play-in game tournament with all the top "bubble" teams? Why not put the game in Miami or Vegas or MSG so at least these kids can feel like they get some kind of reward of this?
But anyway, as for the game itself, those who are making their picks based on "motivation" are going to have a hard time here. See if you can guess which quote came from which head coach:
1) "If we're the 65th best team in this tournament this year, that surprises me. I don't think that's possible."
2) "We feel disrespected, I'm sure you'll be able to see when we play on Tuesday how disrespected we feel."
The answer: it doesn't matter. Though slight edge I suppose to quote #2, that sounds a little more "rallying" and "motivational."
Niagara seems to have most of the intangibles going for them. They feel a little more "snubbed" because they really properly deserved to be a straight 16 seed, if not a 15 seed. That is the interesting sideplot of this game: why is Niagara in it? Did the committee want to avoid yet another battle of black schools by putting in Jackson State as a straight 16? Or are they punishing the Purple Eagles for their off-court "discretions" earlier this year? Of course, if that was the case, I'd have to imagine the Gonzaga "Dude, the basketball is talking to me" Bulldogs would've been lower than a 10 seed.
Also, Florida A&M is likely tired, having to travel overnight after their victory on Saturday, while Niagara has been sitting at home since March 5th. Or maybe Florida A&M has the advantage because they're a bunch of viral 19-to-22 year olds and this is just keeping them focused while Niagara will be rusty?
I'm guessing there's not a lot of people in the general public making a play on this one, but the ones who are are heavily favoring Niagara laying the 8.5 points. Folks, that's three, arguably four possessions. Why would you lay three-to-four possessions in a game like this?
The play to make is either Florida A&M +8.5 or no play at all. I'll probably stick with the latter, though making a very small bet on Florida A&M +410 over at Matchbook is very enticing.
Update #1: By the way, I meant "virile" not "viral". Even "virile" was a silly word to use there, unless Tom Brady plays for them.
Update #2: The play-in game went about as expected. Congrats to all the Florida A&M backers, that must have been a barn-burner. Which makes you realize, why would you bet a game like that?
Everyone's "sure thing" Drexel got beat in the NIT. So last night you had two teams who were "better motivated" and "more rested" and they both failed to cover.
I probably won't make any plays today for the Thursday games, I don't like to make plays until game day. However, I will be breaking down every game in here as the day goes on and revealing which picks I likely will be playing.
1st Round Upsets: Initial Thoughts
A few thoughts on potential first round upsets:
1) Old Dominion over Butler (reminds me of: Montana over Nevada, '06). Butler played terrific at the beginning of the season, but really slumped as things progressed. At the end of the year, they were arguably not even the best team in the Horizon conference. Old Dominion has all the makings of a class cinderella: they can shoot the 3, their guards are experienced and protect the ball, they have a bona fide inside presence in Vasilyus, and they have solid upper-classmen leadership (they start 3 seniors and 2 juniors).
2) Winthrop over Notre Dame (reminds me of: Southern Illinois over Texas Tech, '02). Sometimes an 11-over-6 upset is just meant to be, even if everyone sees it coming. Notre Dame maybe deserved better after a decent showing in the Big East tournament, but they drew a 6 seed and the toughest possible 11 seed, a Winthrop school that's ready to finally break through and make some noise in the big dance.
3) Illinois over Virginia Tech (reminds me of: Missouri over Miami, '02). People are saying the pressure is on Illinois to prove they belong in this tournament and that the Big-10 deserved the 6 bids it got. I always thought this was a little silly... isn't the pressure of playing in the NCAA tournament enough pressure as is? Virginia Tech had a solid year, but no one on this team, be it players or staff, has any extensive experience in tournaments of any kind. The Hokies, a senior-laden team, took advantage of an off-year for several ACC powerhouses to nab a 5 seed, but the Illini's inside presence could really cause them problems.
4) VCU over Duke (reminds me of: UAB over LSU, '05). Most people who know what they're talking about would argue Duke doesn't even deserve this high a seed, while the public at large is probably amazed to see them this low. I've never been a big fan of picking games based on where teams "should" be seeded (picking upsets based on teams seeded "too high" or "too low"). Duke matches up relatively well, and should be able to dominate VCU inside in this game. Most factors point to this being the final case, and that last year was the mojo year for the CAA teams. But I'm not willing to accept that, I think VCU's guard play will dominate Duke all over the floor and Coach K will once again look silly and outcoached in a one-game situation.
A few upsets I haven't been able to talk myself into:
1) Holy Cross over Southern Illinois (reminds me of: Boston College over Penn, '05); (could remind me of: Tulsa over Dayton, '03). So Ill plays some tough defense, so you're not going to sneak up and shoot them out of the building. That's for damn sure. Holy Cross seems poised to break through after a few near misses over the last few years, but I get the feeling the Salukis are just too good and well-coached to let the Crusaders hang around.
2) Wright State over Pittsburgh (reminds me of: Georgia Tech over Northern Iowa, '04); (could remind me of: Northwestern State over Iowa, '06). I don't think Pitt deserves so high a seed, and I don't think Wright State deserves so low of one. But I also don't think that necessarily means Wright State can pull this upset. I will give them a chance to cover the number though.
3) Arkansas over USC (reminds me of: Villanova over New Mexico, '05); (could remind me of: UNC Wilmington over USC, '02). Yes, the similarities are somewhat freaky to the 2002 tournament where an overachieving USC team made it to the Pac-10 Finals, was blown out by Oregon, stumbled into the tournament tired and unattentive and got properly upset in round 1. Two major differences: Henry Bibby is no longer the coach (though sadly, Tim Floyd now is); and Arkansas doesn't really deserve to be here in the first place (similar to the Lobos in '05).
4) Oral Roberts over Washington State (reminds me of: Mississippi over Iona, '01); (could remind me of: Bucknell over Kansas, '05). The last time I can remember a 14-seed getting this much credit as a possible Cinderella was Iona in 2001, who gave Ole Miss their best shot and came up short. Everyone expects Wazzu to flame out early this year and shoot back into mediocrity. I see them probably reaching the Sweet 16 or beyond. By the way, a 14 seed has upset a 3 seed two years running, so the odds of it happening three years in a row are miniscule at best.
5) Long Beach State over Tennessee (reminds me of: Wisconsin over Weber State, '03); (could remind me of: Pacific over Providence, '04). Typically the 12 and 13 seeds who pull upsets are teams who have been to the tournament within the last couple years, so their players and coaches have the big game experience. The LBC hasn't been to the big dance in over a decade. However, Tennessee seems like the typical 5-seed ripe for an upset, and Long Beach has the senior leadership and outside shooting typical of a 12-seed Cinderella.
6) Albany over Virginia (reminds me of: Cincinnati over East Tennessee State, '03); (could remind me of: Kent State over Indiana, '01). Similar to the game above, this one just doesn't "feel" like an upset to me, which is too bad because Virginia is coming into this tournament ripe for an upset. It's sad that either Virginia or Tennessee is going to make the Sweet 16, neither really deserves it and neither will give Ohio State any trouble. In a perfect world, Tennessee would have gotten stuck in a match-up with Old Dominion while Virginia would've drawn Davidson.
1) Old Dominion over Butler (reminds me of: Montana over Nevada, '06). Butler played terrific at the beginning of the season, but really slumped as things progressed. At the end of the year, they were arguably not even the best team in the Horizon conference. Old Dominion has all the makings of a class cinderella: they can shoot the 3, their guards are experienced and protect the ball, they have a bona fide inside presence in Vasilyus, and they have solid upper-classmen leadership (they start 3 seniors and 2 juniors).
2) Winthrop over Notre Dame (reminds me of: Southern Illinois over Texas Tech, '02). Sometimes an 11-over-6 upset is just meant to be, even if everyone sees it coming. Notre Dame maybe deserved better after a decent showing in the Big East tournament, but they drew a 6 seed and the toughest possible 11 seed, a Winthrop school that's ready to finally break through and make some noise in the big dance.
3) Illinois over Virginia Tech (reminds me of: Missouri over Miami, '02). People are saying the pressure is on Illinois to prove they belong in this tournament and that the Big-10 deserved the 6 bids it got. I always thought this was a little silly... isn't the pressure of playing in the NCAA tournament enough pressure as is? Virginia Tech had a solid year, but no one on this team, be it players or staff, has any extensive experience in tournaments of any kind. The Hokies, a senior-laden team, took advantage of an off-year for several ACC powerhouses to nab a 5 seed, but the Illini's inside presence could really cause them problems.
4) VCU over Duke (reminds me of: UAB over LSU, '05). Most people who know what they're talking about would argue Duke doesn't even deserve this high a seed, while the public at large is probably amazed to see them this low. I've never been a big fan of picking games based on where teams "should" be seeded (picking upsets based on teams seeded "too high" or "too low"). Duke matches up relatively well, and should be able to dominate VCU inside in this game. Most factors point to this being the final case, and that last year was the mojo year for the CAA teams. But I'm not willing to accept that, I think VCU's guard play will dominate Duke all over the floor and Coach K will once again look silly and outcoached in a one-game situation.
A few upsets I haven't been able to talk myself into:
1) Holy Cross over Southern Illinois (reminds me of: Boston College over Penn, '05); (could remind me of: Tulsa over Dayton, '03). So Ill plays some tough defense, so you're not going to sneak up and shoot them out of the building. That's for damn sure. Holy Cross seems poised to break through after a few near misses over the last few years, but I get the feeling the Salukis are just too good and well-coached to let the Crusaders hang around.
2) Wright State over Pittsburgh (reminds me of: Georgia Tech over Northern Iowa, '04); (could remind me of: Northwestern State over Iowa, '06). I don't think Pitt deserves so high a seed, and I don't think Wright State deserves so low of one. But I also don't think that necessarily means Wright State can pull this upset. I will give them a chance to cover the number though.
3) Arkansas over USC (reminds me of: Villanova over New Mexico, '05); (could remind me of: UNC Wilmington over USC, '02). Yes, the similarities are somewhat freaky to the 2002 tournament where an overachieving USC team made it to the Pac-10 Finals, was blown out by Oregon, stumbled into the tournament tired and unattentive and got properly upset in round 1. Two major differences: Henry Bibby is no longer the coach (though sadly, Tim Floyd now is); and Arkansas doesn't really deserve to be here in the first place (similar to the Lobos in '05).
4) Oral Roberts over Washington State (reminds me of: Mississippi over Iona, '01); (could remind me of: Bucknell over Kansas, '05). The last time I can remember a 14-seed getting this much credit as a possible Cinderella was Iona in 2001, who gave Ole Miss their best shot and came up short. Everyone expects Wazzu to flame out early this year and shoot back into mediocrity. I see them probably reaching the Sweet 16 or beyond. By the way, a 14 seed has upset a 3 seed two years running, so the odds of it happening three years in a row are miniscule at best.
5) Long Beach State over Tennessee (reminds me of: Wisconsin over Weber State, '03); (could remind me of: Pacific over Providence, '04). Typically the 12 and 13 seeds who pull upsets are teams who have been to the tournament within the last couple years, so their players and coaches have the big game experience. The LBC hasn't been to the big dance in over a decade. However, Tennessee seems like the typical 5-seed ripe for an upset, and Long Beach has the senior leadership and outside shooting typical of a 12-seed Cinderella.
6) Albany over Virginia (reminds me of: Cincinnati over East Tennessee State, '03); (could remind me of: Kent State over Indiana, '01). Similar to the game above, this one just doesn't "feel" like an upset to me, which is too bad because Virginia is coming into this tournament ripe for an upset. It's sad that either Virginia or Tennessee is going to make the Sweet 16, neither really deserves it and neither will give Ohio State any trouble. In a perfect world, Tennessee would have gotten stuck in a match-up with Old Dominion while Virginia would've drawn Davidson.
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