Atlanta Falcons Draft Day Trade Prediction

Bobby Petrino understands that his success in the NFL will determined by his ability to improve the play of Michael Vick. In order to do everything in their power to make Vick a player worthy of the highest salary in the league (which he's currently getting) they need to surround him with pass catchers who can get open, catch the ball consistently, and make plays downfield. They started off this offseason by bringing in a veteran receiver to show the young guys how to get it done in the NFL (and how to use inanimate objects in a touchdown celebration) by signing Joe Horn in free agency. Then the trade with the Texans moved them even closer to making my predicted draft day trade. By moving Matt Schaub to the Texans, the Falcons not only showed Vick that they have confidence in him and are going to stick with him through thick and thin, but they also received the draft picks they need to move up in the draft and really make a splash.

Calvin Johnson is arguably the best prospect in the entire draft. He's a definite top 5 pick and a guy that can impact a team's offense from the moment he gets in to town. Johnson is a 6'5", 139 lbs wide receiver who grew up in Georgia. He's a two time All-American who won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's best receiver this past year. In 38 games at GT, Johnson posted 2,927 yards and 28 TDs on 178 receptions. He did all this while catching passes from a quarterback who is a better runner than he is a passer (sound like Vick?). At the combine he ran the 40 in 4.35 seconds wearing someone else's shoes. Not only can he make plays in the passing game, but he's also a very good blocker in the run game considering his position. His former coaches have raved about his perfect off-field behavior and incredible work ethic. If there is such a thing as a can't miss prospect in the crap shoot that is the NFL draft, this guy is it.

In order for Atlanta to draft this home-grown talent, they're definitely going to have to move up. While there is a chance that Al Davis could make him the #1 overall selection, it looks like JaMarcus Russell is going to go at the top spot. Therefore, the Falcons can target the Lions for the #2 pick and ensure they get Johnson. The Lions have been a terrible team during Matt Millen's tenure. There's really no debating that. He needs to make a move in this draft in order to get more picks to upgrade the overall roster and not just one position. After getting Greg Foster and Tatum Bell from Denver for Dre Bly, it isn't necessary for them to take Joe Thomas or Adrian Peterson at the #2 spot. A quarterback would be a nice addition to the team, but Millen needs to win now, so if he picks for the future he probably won't be around to reap any of the rewards. Also, the Lions run Mike Martz's complicated offense which won't be easy for a rookie to pick up right away. Jon Kitna put up decent numbers last year and I think they'll stick it out with him in '07.

Here's what the Falcons need to give up in order to complete this trade:
Their 1st round pick, number 8 overall which they received from the Texans which is worth 1,400 points according to the Trade Value Chart.
Their 7th pick in the 2nd round, which is worth 510 points.
The 2008 2nd rounder which they received from the Texans (I'm guessing that Houston will get the 10th pick next year for sake of making this easier to explain) which equals 480 points.
This year's 11th pick in the 3rd round which equals 215 points.
The 12th pick in the 5th round which is 36 points.
This gives a total value of 2,641 points.

In return the Lions have to give up the following:
The #2 overall selection which equals 2,600 points.
Their 17th pick in the 5th round which equals 33.5 points.
This is a total of 2,633.5 points.

This should be a close enough value to make the trade work for both teams. Then the Falcons can make their pick of Calvin Johnson and the Lions will gain 3 extra first-day picks this year and one next year. Then they'll still be able to help out their team this year with the #8 pick by turning it into a player like LT Levi Brown, S Laron Landry, DE Jammal Anderson, CB Leon Hall (to replace Dre Bly), or WR Dwayne Jarrett (just because Jarrett plays WR and this is Matt Millen we're talking about).

Now that I spent all this time explaining why it will happen, let me now explain why it won't: It makes too much sense.


To see the Trade Value Chart I used, check out: http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/valuechart.html

The Clevelander (No, not the sandwich)

Lots of things to be excited about as a Cleveland sports fan. The Cavaliers currently hold the #2 seed in the East playoffs, the Indians' season is about to start, the Buckeyes made the Final Four, and the Browns are still in town.

As long as Lebron James is wearing #23 for the Cavs, simply clinching a playoff spot should be expected. Unless Kevin McHale takes over as GM, Cleveland fans should enjoy the excitement of the NBA playoffs for years to come. Ever since Larry Hughes took over at the point guard position and Sasha Pavlovic decided to play defense and earn more playing time, this team has been playing like a true contender. However, this team still has room for improvement. They still need to show more consistency. They seem to fall into a rut during games where everyone stands around and waits for someone to shoot a jump shot. This isn't going to get it done against the Pistons, Bulls, or Heat. If the playoffs started today the Cavs would host the Orlando Magic in the first round of the playoffs. Despite having Dwight Howard this team has free fallen over the last few months. If the Cavs allow the Bulls to catch them, they'll drop from the #2 seed all the way to #5. At number 5, they'd lose their home court advantage and (as of today) face the Toronto Raptors. The Cavs would still be favored to win, but Toronto is a better team than Orlando and I'd rather see the games being played at the 'Q' instead of in Canada. With only a game and a half separating the Cavs and Bulls, the end of the season will be exciting. Lebron has already begun picking up his game, hopefully his teammates are able to improve theirs as well.

Next door to the Q the Indians' season is about to get started and the team has some promise this year. The bullpen was a big problem for the team last year and was improved this offseason by picking up Joe Borowski from the Cubs and journeyman Roberto Hernandez. We also get to see Andy Marte and Josh Barfield move into starting roles in the infield for the team and there are high expectations for both. Once Cliff Lee comes back from his injury the starting lineup will be strong with Cliff, C.C. Sabathia, and Jake Westbrook at the top of the rotation. Enjoy C.C. while you still can, his contract with the Tribe is up after 2008 and it'll be very expensive to sign him. He's a young, huge, lefty with a power arm. Those guys usually price themselves out of the Indian's budget when they hit the open market. This is a team that has the talent to battle for a playoff spot in a suddenly very good Central Division. These obviously aren't the same Sox, Twins, and Tigers from the days when the Indians dominated the division year after year.

Another local team with postseason success is the Buckeyes. They'll be facing Georgetown in the Final Four after surviving several excruciatingly close games. Greg Oden will be the centerpiece of a team that has really matured throughout the tournament. He'll be facing Roy Hibbert in one of the best matchups of March so far. Mike Conley, Jr. has been extremely impressive. He was almost an after-thought before the season when he came to Ohio with Oden. Point guard play is extremely important, especially in the tournament. Conley was extremely clutch in the overtime win over Xavier and has only grown from there. He can penetrate, distribute, and shoot the ball like an upper classman. After Oden, Mike Conley will play a huge part if the team is able to beat the Hoyas. I'd personally love to see a rematch with Florida after the embarrassment they laid on OSU at the National Championship game. A win for the NCAA title would be sweet revenge.

That was the good news. Now for the Cleveland Browns. If one of the other Cleveland teams were losing this consistently they'd be almost forgotten. However, this is the Browns. Cleveland lives and dies by this team and right now fans are showing that you can die more than once. First lets go over the holes this team has. Despite bringing Eric Steinbach and Seth McKinney aboard, the offensive line still could use an upgrade. Kellen Winslow just had microfracture surgery which is a very risky operation. The running backs are a past-his-prime Jamal Lewis and a handful of nobodies. Neither Charlie Frye nor Derek Anderson are starting caliber quarterbacks. The defensive line added Shaun Smith and Robaire Smith, but the defensive line is still very weak. The secondary lost Brian Russell and Gary Baxter can't seem to stay healthy. The linebacker core may be the best group on the team with Andra Davis, D'Qwell Jackson, Leon Williams, Kamerion Wimbley, Willie McGinest, and Antwan Peek. This is a huge draft for the Browns. Hopefully they won't be picking in the top 3 again for a long time. There are rumors that they could trade up for Jamarcus Russell or Brady Quinn, or stand pat for Adrian Peterson or Joe Thomas. Whatever they decide to do they'd better make a good decision. This town can't handle anymore miserable high picks like they did in the past. This offseason could either be the turning point or the starting over (again) point for this team.

With all of the excitement over the local teams right now, I almost forgot to mention the biggest event to hit Cleveland in years. The women's NCAA Final Four is in town!! Let's kick out the Cavs for a five game road trip while they're in the middle of a playoff chase so some miserable basketball can be played at Quicken Loans Arena. Does anyone other than the players' families watch these games in person? While accidentally putting one of these games on my t.v. while waiting for Sports Center to come on, I couldn't help but notice that the arenas are basically empty except for a few rows of seats at mid-court on either side. The sides of the arenas behind the hoops are totally empty. Why play these games in an NBA arena when a small high school gym would be perfectly suitable? If Dallas Lauderdale, 3 of my friends, and I can beat the national champion, why would I spend the time to watch?

Washington D.C. Sports Report

Things haven't started off too smoothly for the new ownership group of the Washington Nationals. Ticket sales are slowed down in general, including season ticket sales, and many season ticket holders are complaining about slow deliveries of their ticket packages (some are even concerned they won't get their tickets before opening day). Team President Stan Kasten has said he's determined to have the final season opener at RFK be a sell-out, but it looks like it won't even be close.

It's no secret that RFK sucks and this Nats team sucks even worse. Could anyone outside the D.C. area name five guys on this team? Could anyone in the D.C. area name five guys on this team? It's not an easy sell for these guys, trying to pass off a team rebuilding on a city that has no choice but to feel like a bandwagon fan (these things happen when a team is dumped on you after 35 years without baseball in your city). 2007 has the obvious feel of a placeholder year for the Nats before moving into their new stadium in 2008 and maybe then building a respectable team.

Last night, Sidney Crosby and the Penguins symbolically skated into town and put a fitting epitaph on the '06/'07 season for the Washington Capitals, with a 4-2 win. In the 8th battle between the potential Bird-and-Magic of the NHL, Crosby came up with a memorable behind-the-net goal in the 2nd period, and added an assist to increase his NHL scoring lead. Alex Ovechkin, meanwhile, came up with an early assist but was otherwise held in check, further frustrated by the lackadaisical efforts of his teammates.

There's no question the Penguins are doing a much better job building around Crosby than the Capitals are doing building around Ovechkin. With the win, the Pens clinched their first playoff berth since 2001. Washington, meanwhile, is mired with the second worst record in the Eastern Conference and will miss the playoffs for the third straight season. Similar to Lebron in Cleveland or Johan Santana in Minnesota, fans have to wonder how long Ovechkin will be willing to put up with subpar teammates, subpar coaching and subpar ownership/general management.

By the way, in eight meetings since they both joined the league, Crosby's Penguins have beaten Ovechkin's Capitals seven times. Not quite Magic-and-Bird yet.

After losing four out of the five games on their West Coast swing, the Washington Wizards have now fallen behind the surging Miami Heat in the Southeast standings, and have tumbled from the East's 3-seed to the East's 6-seed. They hope to get things back on track tonight with a home game against the Philadelphia 76ers, as the oft-injured Caron Butler is expected to return from a left knee contusion.

Gilbert Arenas played pretty well on the road trip, all things considered, but his blog on nba.com has been suspiciously quiet ever since his "talking to" from the league for making a $10 bet with a Portland fan during the game. Could it be that an athlete's online blog is being compromised by the very company that employs him and hosts his blog on their website? Who would've thunk it.

Unfortunately for the Wizards, they're only the second most beloved basketball team in town right now, as the Georgetown Hoyas prepare for Saturday's Final 4 match-up with Ohio State. The team, coached by John Thompson's son and featuring Patrick Ewing's son off the bench, has tapped back into the college hoops soul of the nation's capitol, similar to Maryland's Final 4 runs in 2001 and 2002.

One statistic Georgetown has going for them: no Big East team has ever lost a national semifinals game against a non-Big East team. Georgetown is the 13th Big East team to reach the Final 4, and 9 of those 13 teams won their semifinal game against teams from another conference. The only time a Big East team has lost in this round of the tournament is when facing another Big East team (Georgetown beat St. John's in '85 and Syracuse beat Providence in '87).

And finally, the Washington Redskins are looking to add yet another overpaid linebacker to the team, as they continue trade talks with the Chicago Bears for the disgruntled Lance Briggs. If the trade goes through, the Redskins will give up their #6 overall draft pick in exchange for the Bears' #31 overall pick. Keep in mind they've already traded away their 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks. It's as if Dan Snyder and Joe Gibbs know they only have a couple years left to live and couldn't care less about the franchise's future. There's probably a good joke in there somewhere, but the reality is enough of a joke.

Joey Porter Fight Club

So, Joey Porter beat the crap out of Levi Jones at a blackjack table at the Palms.

Two lingering questions:

1) Levi Jones plays for the Bengals. You're telling me when the cops showed up, they didn't just arrest Jones out of habit? I mean, when you have two black men in the room, you make it hard enough for the cops to instantly decide who's guilty, but you had to involve a Cincinnati Bengal as well? I'm surprised Jones didn't get tasered within the first 30 seconds of his statement to Vegas police.

2) What were they arguing about? Maybe Levi Jones hit on a 14 when the dealer was showing a 6? Is Jones the type of guy who splits 10's? Did Jones make a joke about the painting of dogs playing poker with a miniature horse as the dealer? These all seem realistic, but I tend to believe they were arguing over their favorite Air Supply album. Porter strikes me as the kind of guy who will defend the studioized glamor of the Lost in Love album, while Jones is more interested in the thoughtful later work of News From Nowhere.

These are the types of disagreements amongst adults that tend to come to blows.

Broken Tackle's 2007 NFL Mock Draft

1. Oakland Raiders - QB Jamarcus Russell - LSU
Russell seems to be the consensus number 1 overall pick and with good reason. He's enormous, has a cannon for a right arm, can evade the rush, and has great accuracy. However, with Al Davis still making the decisions in Oakland he very well may draft a toaster. This is the same guy that passed up Matt Leinart for a safety just last year.

2. Detroit Lions - QB Brady Quinn - Notre Dame
Speaking of clueless GMs. The reports are that the Lions want to stay with Jon Kitna as their starting QB. That makes sense, blow 3 consecutive drafts on WRs and then stick with Kitna to get them the ball. However, they did pass up Leinart last year for an undersized OLB. Quinn was thought to be the #1 QB coming into the '06 season and really didn't do anything to change that except play on an overrated team.

3. Cleveland Browns - RB Adrian Peterson - Oklahoma
After finishing 2nd in the Heisman race as a freshman, Peterson's stock has dropped in some people's minds because of a few injuries. If the doctors clear him medically, Peterson should be a top pick. The Browns signed Jamal Lewis to a one year contract (probably so he won't run all over them for a change), so bringing in Peterson still makes perfect sense.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR Calvin Johnson - Georgia Tech
I don't even think the sky is the limit for this guy. He's got incredible hands, he's 6'5 240lbs., runs a 4.4 40, blocks in the run game, and constantly beat double and triple teams in college. John Gruden has always been an offensive minded coach and this is the perfect opportunity to get him a real threat in the passing game.

5. Arizona Cardinals - LT Joe Thomas - Wisconsin
As good as this looks on paper for the Cardinals, it is the Cardinals we're talking about. They got a top notch QB in Matt Leinart last year and now can get him some protection. Something just has to give though, I mean this is the Cardinals. Either Thomas' knee will explode or someone will trade up and get him just before their pick. I mean, come on, it's the Cardinals.

6. Washington Redskins - DE Gaines Adams - Clemson
Considering their lack of a pass rush last year, this is a perfect "need pick" for them. Adams may be a little smaller than the ideal, but he's still quick and able to get to the QB. Once again though, Dan Snyder, the Ghost of Joe Gibbs, and Tom Cruise are making this selection, so who knows who will be drafted.

7. Minnesota Vikings - WR Ted Ginn - Ohio State
They tried to get a raw receiver with blazing speed once before and that hasn't quite worked out yet. Ginn is another story though. This guy was extremely productive, versatile, and dangerous at OSU and would be a great downfield threat for whichever QB the Vikings suit up in '07.

8. Houston Texans - LT Levi Brown - Penn State
I've been trying and trying to figure out how the Texans will surprise everyone and completely blow yet another draft, but I don't think they could possibly pass up a potential franchise LT in Brown. However, a team that can pass up both Vince Young and Reggie Bush in the same draft can certainly blow this one as well.

9. Miami Dolphins - DT Alan Branch - Michigan
If this guy actually tried to play hard in college, he could have been a top 5 pick. He's huge and very athletic for his size, but just like the saying, size isn't everything (I swear). On potential alone this guy is a top 10 pick, but I'd consider this guy a gamble for sure.

10. Atlanta - DT Amobi Okoye - Louisville
He's a top 10 pick and he's only 19 years old. That's incredible. If he turns out to be a player in this league, and I think he will, he'll be able to sign several big time contracts. An interior line of Rod Coleman and Okoye will certainly help their lack of a pass rush. Too bad the nickname "Nigerian Nightmare" was already taken.

11. San Francisco - WR - Dwayne Jarrett - USC
This offense may actually be formidable next year. Jarrett moves just up the state and the Niners gain a big time play maker to add to their offense. The defense was helped quite a bit in free agency, but I bet they continue to address it in later rounds of this draft.

12. Buffalo - RB Marshawn Lynch - Cal
The Bills have had a stellar offseason so far losing several starting LBs and their #1 tailback. Now Marshawn Lynch gets to move from sunny California to not-so-sunny Buffalo. Sorry Marshawn, I wouldn't want to live their either.

13. St. Louis - DE Jamaal Anderson - Arkansas
Combine Anderson with Leonard "I'm fine to drive" Little and QBs in the NFC West may actually sweat a bit playing the Rams. The offense will continue to be a force with Bulger, Holt, Jackson, and of course the much needed white slot receiver in Drew Bennett; but I really can't remember the last time this defense was any good.

14. Carolina Panthers - S Laron Landry - LSU
If he does drop this far the Panthers are extremely lucky. If I'm the NFL genius I think I am, the Panthers have quite a player here at #14. With Landry patrolling the deep middle, this defensive backfield is loaded which will give Julius Peppers even more time to get to the QB.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers - DE/OLB Jarvis Moss - Florida
I'm really sick of seeing the Gators. Call me bitter (I'm an OSU fan), but I hate that Gator Chop thing. Now this Gator will play for the Steelers so I can continue booing him, perfect, I needed someone to replace Joey Porter.

16. Green Bay - WR Robert Meachem - Tennessee
Since they're not going to get Randy Moss, they get to settle for Robert Meachem. If Favre remembers which jersey to throw to Meachem should be able to produce right away. He's got the size, the speed, and the hands to help this team make it to 2nd place in the worst division in football again.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars - DE Adam Carriker - Nebraska
Adam should fit in nicely next to John Henderson and Marcus Stroud on the Jaguars' D-Line. I wouldn't want to be a running back facing that line. The Jaguars have built themselves a nice defense, now, about that QB...

18. Cincinnati Bengals - CB Leon Hall - Michigan
They tried drafting Mother Theresa to help with their recent image problem, but she wasn't available. So instead they turn to the other DB tumbling down the draft. He may not have Deion Sanders' speed, but he'll help out with their awful run game and be a consistent player in the secondary; until he gets arrested.

19. Tennessee Titans - TE Greg Olsen - Miami
Nothing helps a young QB develop like a good safety valve to throw to. Olsen ran past all the other TEs during the combine and made himself several million dollars.

20. New York Giants - S Reggie Nelson - Florida
Reggie Nelson will make plenty of big play interceptions playing for the Giants. I mean, he'll make them in practice, Eli isn't Peyton.

21. Denver Broncos - WR Dwayne Bowe - LSU
Once Dre Bly settles down and quits whining, he'll stay in Denver and make the best CB combo in the league. Then the Broncos can turn their attention to their aging offense. Rod Smith was once catching passese from Moses, so his time in the league is just about done. If Bowe can catch the ball consistently, I hear that's important for WRs to do, he'll be a good player.

22. Dallas Cowboys - DB Aaron Ross - Texas
Ross is capable of playing corner or safety for the Cowboys. They definitely could use someone to cover the deep middle of the field and Ross should be perfect for that.

23. Kansas City - WR Sidney Rice - South Carolina
Whoever the Chiefs decide to make their starting QB needs someone to throw the ball downfield to. They've been using Tony Gonzalez as their only pass catching option for years and still haven't figured out that it's not enough. If they don't stretch the defense Larry Johnson is going to continue to get pounded every game and my fantasy team will suffer. We can't have that.

24. New England Patriots - CB Chris Houston - Arkansas
Hard working, tough as nails corner looks perfect for the Patriots. However, if they add depth to the secondary Bill Belichick's praise for winning despite an injury riddled team may slow down some. I'm sure ESPN will find something else to obsess over with him.

25. New York Jets - DE/OLB Charles Johnson - Georgia
Mangini follows Belichick's scheme and attempts to turn a DE into a pass rushing OLB in the 3-4. Maybe he can talk Chad Pennington into mimicking Tom Brady's every move and the cloning will be complete.

26. Philadelphia - C Ryan Kalil - USC
After trying unsuccessfully to sign LeCharles Bentley a year ago, the Eagles do what they do every year and draft a lineman. Unlike Bentley, Kalil may actually play in a game. If the Eagles are lucky enough for that to happen Kalil looks like a pretty sure-fire center.

27. New Orleans Saints - LB Patrick Willis - Ole Miss
The Saints get Reggie Bush last year and Pat Willis this year. Two cornerstones for this team for years to come. Willis is a play maker. Throughout his career at the great football factory of Ole Miss, Willis has made tackles all over the field and will be a great addition to the Saints.

28. New England Patriots - LB Paul Posluszny - Penn State
He just has to be drafted by the Patriots. He looks like a Patriot linebacker (he's white) and plays like one (he's good). And that's that.

29. Baltimore Ravens - OG Ben Grubbs - Auburn
The Ravens need O-Line help immediately. Jamal Lewis took a lot of blame for his run production slipping, but it's hard to run when there isn't anywhere to go. Grubbs looks like the best guard in the draft and should start immediately for them.

30. San Diego Chargers - WR Steve Smith - USC
A lot of teams need pass catching help and this is the year to draft them. The Chargers offense is great, but adding a receiver like Smith would really help Rivers attack defenses from multiple angles.

31. Chicago Bears - LB Lawrence Timmons - FSU
Whether Lance Briggs plays for the Bears ever again is pretty much up in the air. If he plays this year or not, he'll be gone at the end of the season and Timmons will be there to take over. Now, about that QB...

32. Indianapolis Colts - LB Jon Beason - Miami
They did win the Super Bowl, but I don't think anyone is arguing that the Colts need to improve their run defense. Adding to the need, Cato June signed with Tampa Bay this offseason. At the least they're hoping Beason can make up for that loss.