Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Game preview #9/#10: Ohio State vs. Central Connecticut / North Carolina vs. Eastern Kentucky

(1) Ohio State -21 vs. (16) Central Connecticut State (O/U: 126.5)
(1) North Carolina -27 vs. (16) Eastern Kentucky (O/U: 142.5)

Not much to say about these games. North Carolina and Ohio State are going to win, let's start with that. Why anyone feels the need or desire to lay over 20 points in an NCAA tournament game is beyond me. The Buckeyes and Tar Heels know they will win these games easily, and couldn't care less how much they win by.

However... one interesting thing to note, similar to the note early on 2 vs. 15 games, 7 of the last 8 1 vs. 16 match-ups have been decided by 20 points or less. The only team to win by more was North Carolina, who beat Oakland by 28 points in the 1st Round in '05.

The play to make: Whether you're laying points or taking them, you're a braver man than I. The UNC-EKU line is somewhat interesting. Even though the public has been backing Eastern Kentucky, the spread is increasing (it opened at UNC -26). So it would appear there's some "sharp" money coming in on the Tar Heels to create that reverse line movement. Still, you'd have to somewhat batshit insane to want to make that play.

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