1st Round Upsets: Initial Thoughts

A few thoughts on potential first round upsets:

1) Old Dominion over Butler (reminds me of: Montana over Nevada, '06). Butler played terrific at the beginning of the season, but really slumped as things progressed. At the end of the year, they were arguably not even the best team in the Horizon conference. Old Dominion has all the makings of a class cinderella: they can shoot the 3, their guards are experienced and protect the ball, they have a bona fide inside presence in Vasilyus, and they have solid upper-classmen leadership (they start 3 seniors and 2 juniors).

2) Winthrop over Notre Dame (reminds me of: Southern Illinois over Texas Tech, '02). Sometimes an 11-over-6 upset is just meant to be, even if everyone sees it coming. Notre Dame maybe deserved better after a decent showing in the Big East tournament, but they drew a 6 seed and the toughest possible 11 seed, a Winthrop school that's ready to finally break through and make some noise in the big dance.

3) Illinois over Virginia Tech (reminds me of: Missouri over Miami, '02). People are saying the pressure is on Illinois to prove they belong in this tournament and that the Big-10 deserved the 6 bids it got. I always thought this was a little silly... isn't the pressure of playing in the NCAA tournament enough pressure as is? Virginia Tech had a solid year, but no one on this team, be it players or staff, has any extensive experience in tournaments of any kind. The Hokies, a senior-laden team, took advantage of an off-year for several ACC powerhouses to nab a 5 seed, but the Illini's inside presence could really cause them problems.

4) VCU over Duke (reminds me of: UAB over LSU, '05). Most people who know what they're talking about would argue Duke doesn't even deserve this high a seed, while the public at large is probably amazed to see them this low. I've never been a big fan of picking games based on where teams "should" be seeded (picking upsets based on teams seeded "too high" or "too low"). Duke matches up relatively well, and should be able to dominate VCU inside in this game. Most factors point to this being the final case, and that last year was the mojo year for the CAA teams. But I'm not willing to accept that, I think VCU's guard play will dominate Duke all over the floor and Coach K will once again look silly and outcoached in a one-game situation.


A few upsets I haven't been able to talk myself into:

1) Holy Cross over Southern Illinois (reminds me of: Boston College over Penn, '05); (could remind me of: Tulsa over Dayton, '03). So Ill plays some tough defense, so you're not going to sneak up and shoot them out of the building. That's for damn sure. Holy Cross seems poised to break through after a few near misses over the last few years, but I get the feeling the Salukis are just too good and well-coached to let the Crusaders hang around.

2) Wright State over Pittsburgh (reminds me of: Georgia Tech over Northern Iowa, '04); (could remind me of: Northwestern State over Iowa, '06). I don't think Pitt deserves so high a seed, and I don't think Wright State deserves so low of one. But I also don't think that necessarily means Wright State can pull this upset. I will give them a chance to cover the number though.

3) Arkansas over USC (reminds me of: Villanova over New Mexico, '05); (could remind me of: UNC Wilmington over USC, '02). Yes, the similarities are somewhat freaky to the 2002 tournament where an overachieving USC team made it to the Pac-10 Finals, was blown out by Oregon, stumbled into the tournament tired and unattentive and got properly upset in round 1. Two major differences: Henry Bibby is no longer the coach (though sadly, Tim Floyd now is); and Arkansas doesn't really deserve to be here in the first place (similar to the Lobos in '05).

4) Oral Roberts over Washington State (reminds me of: Mississippi over Iona, '01); (could remind me of: Bucknell over Kansas, '05). The last time I can remember a 14-seed getting this much credit as a possible Cinderella was Iona in 2001, who gave Ole Miss their best shot and came up short. Everyone expects Wazzu to flame out early this year and shoot back into mediocrity. I see them probably reaching the Sweet 16 or beyond. By the way, a 14 seed has upset a 3 seed two years running, so the odds of it happening three years in a row are miniscule at best.

5) Long Beach State over Tennessee (reminds me of: Wisconsin over Weber State, '03); (could remind me of: Pacific over Providence, '04). Typically the 12 and 13 seeds who pull upsets are teams who have been to the tournament within the last couple years, so their players and coaches have the big game experience. The LBC hasn't been to the big dance in over a decade. However, Tennessee seems like the typical 5-seed ripe for an upset, and Long Beach has the senior leadership and outside shooting typical of a 12-seed Cinderella.

6) Albany over Virginia (reminds me of: Cincinnati over East Tennessee State, '03); (could remind me of: Kent State over Indiana, '01). Similar to the game above, this one just doesn't "feel" like an upset to me, which is too bad because Virginia is coming into this tournament ripe for an upset. It's sad that either Virginia or Tennessee is going to make the Sweet 16, neither really deserves it and neither will give Ohio State any trouble. In a perfect world, Tennessee would have gotten stuck in a match-up with Old Dominion while Virginia would've drawn Davidson.