(6) Duke -6.5 vs. (11) Virginia Commonwealth (O/U: 135)
The selection committee must have some sense of humor, taking the two most reviled teams in the field (Duke and Notre Dame), sticking them on the 6-seed line and then matching them up against the two most popular Cinderella hopefuls heading into the tournament, VCU and Winthrop. Are they setting us all up, or setting it up for us to knock it down.
Your opinion on the outcome of this game is indicative of who you expect to set the pace in this game. Will Duke pound the ball inside and take advantage of their much bigger and more talented front-court? Or will VCU speed the game up and take advantage of their much quicker and smarter back-court? The Rams' PG Eric Maynor is a cult hero now (here's why, just in case you've been living in a cave the last 10 days), and most people are expecting him to make Greg Paulus his bitch. The rest of the Rams guard rotation is formidable as well: B.A. Walker, Jesse Pellot and Jamal Shuler are all excellent ball handlers and 3-point shooters. Their inside guys are over-matched, but they are active on defense and the glass and might be able to hold their own for stretches so long as the guards are stretching the opponent's defense with their dribble penetration and cutting off dribble penetration and passing lanes on the other end.
Duke is your typical Duke team: soft in the inside, thin bench, veteran leadership, well-coached, somewhat obnoxious. This is however, arguably, the least talented Duke team in over a decade. Josh McRoberts shows some flashes of greatness on the inside, but also will disappear for large stretches of the game. Greg Paulus is a slightly more talented Steve Wojchiewski, while freshman swingman Jon Scheyer definitely improved as the year progressed. The best player on the roster is probably DeMarcus Nelson, not only Duke's top scorer but also their best defender, and he'll probably be assigned to try and shut down Eric Maynor. Duke still plays their typical aggressive man-to-man defense, but often the offense will completely sputter and put them in bad spots.
The play to make: VCU +6.5 seemed like one of the easiest plays of the week when I first saw the lines released, but the more I've thought about it I've realized Duke is favored by more than two possessions for a reason. This team is over-rated as always, but they can be dangerous when Coach K has a few days to prepare his troops (say what you want about Coach K, but he will always have his guys ready to play if he gets a few days to do it... give him only a day or two to prepare and well, he's fucked, but that doesn't matter here). Getting Gerald "Left Hook" Henderson back after his one-game suspension could also be a serious boost. I think anyone who lays the points with Duke is crazy, but I also don't think VCU +6.5 is that solid of a play. However, if you do make that play, make sure you add VCU +248 and Over 135, because if the Rams are winning this game, they're going to do it by exacerbating the pace and wearing out the Blue Devils down the stretch with loads of points scored. Keep in mind too, the public is only slightly favoring the Dukies, which is a rarity vs. such a lesser known opponent.
Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Still not sure why a devil is blue. Would the devil make some sort of deal with the Ram for his soul? More likely, the ram would just roshambo the devil square in his nuts and that would be the end of it. Edge: VCU
Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Lovin' those cute white boys from Duke. And when the NBA thing doesn't work out, that MBA thing will. Edge: Duke
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