(6) Louisville -5.5 vs. (11) Stanford (O/U: 127)
Two teams that went in opposite directions in February. Louisville came out of the edge of bubble obscurity to rally through the Big East, got hot at just the right time and turned a Big East semifinals trip into an NCAA 6-seed. Stanford, meanwhile, went from a Pac-10 sure thing to a team square on the bubble, whose inclusion many mocked due to their lack of wins in a field that included so many 20-game winners.
Juan Palacios' status is key in this one. Louisville needs him healthy and playing even though they do have a relatively deep bench even without him. For Stanford, will they get any production at all from their guards? Their front-court is formidable, but at times it seems like they're playing 3-on-5 out there. Mitch Johnson can handle the ball well, but can't do much of anything else. No one on this team can shoot jumpers, especially from 3-point range.
So does Rick Pitino come up with something here? Can he collapse on the Lopez brothers and force Stanford's guards to beat them? This is an interesting match-up, especially with the fact that Louisville could very easily fall asleep for large portion(s) of this game. But Stanford might literally fall asleep, after making the West-to-East road trip it will feel like this game is starting before 10 a.m. to them. And we all know college kids don't get much done before 10 a.m.
The play to make: If you're playing this game, you just have to take the points. Stanford +5.5 is a solid play, and if you're going to play that, you have to make a smaller play on Stanford +224 to supplement it. This might be another situation where the 1st Half line is the safer bet, though Stanford 1st Half +2.5 doesn't provide very solid value and besides the Cardinal might be rusty. I have absolutely no opinion on the total, but if you like Stanford, you probably like the Under too.
Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: A cardinal vs. a tree? But, remember the tree looks like this. That's some serious HR Puffnstuff shit. That tree is fucked up on acid and ain't no cardinal taking it down. Edge: Stanford
Who Suzy from accounting is taking: If she's a Southern girl, her heart might be with Louisville, KY, even though Rick Pitino has definite creepy old guy vibes. More likely though, she likes those smart boys at Stanford who are heading into law, medicine and politics. Edge: Stanford
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