Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: UCLA vs. Pittsburgh

(2) UCLA -3 vs. (3) Pittsburgh (O/U: 123)

Rarely do you get to see a college basketball game where one team is so much stronger than the other on the perimeter, while one is so much stronger than the other on the interior. Such is UCLA vs. Pitt, a game which could end up as a serious battle of attrition.

Pittsburgh is not the hard-nosed defensive team we typically think of when we think of the Panthers. This team can play tough on defense, but they can also score in bunches. They wore down an undersized VCU team early with some terrific post play from Levon Kirkland and Aaron Gray. But late in the game, the Pittsburgh guards wore down and VCU took advantage before Ronald Ramon surprisingly took the game over in overtime.

UCLA has struggled at times this year against teams with tough interior presences. This was on display in the regular season during losses to Stanford, Washington and West Virginia. But Pittsburgh also struggled mightily against teams with quick and deep back-courts, such as Louisville, Georgetown and Marquette.

So which side gives? Aaron Afflalo struggled for most of the game against Indiana, but came up huge in the clutch when the Bruins needed him. He and Darren Collison are arguably the best guard duo left in the tournament.

Battle of the Mascots: UCLA's Joe Bruin can sometimes look pretty tame, and can sometimes look pretty ferocious. Pitt's Panther looks like the sneaky type, but we can't forgive for having this perfect opportunity to viciously maul Mike Greenberg and not taking advantage of it. Plus, looking back at that first picture, you'd imagine Joe Bruin just shows his tame side to roll in the bitches. Edge: UCLA

Battle of Famous Alumni: UCLA has a pretty substantial list here, including Francis Ford Coppola, James Dean, Jack Black, Tim Robbins, the chick who played Winnie on the Wonder Years, a Hall-of-Famer in almost any sport you can imagine (Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Jackie Robinson, Arthur Ashe, Troy Aikman, Jackie Joyner Kersee and Rafer Johnson to name a few) and of course everyone's favorite drop-out, Jim Morrison. Pittsburgh has a pretty extensive list of football players and coaches (Dan Marino, Jimmy Johnson, Curtis Martin, Mike Ditka). But they also have Orrin Hatch. Fuck him. Edge: UCLA

The play to make: UCLA is the better team here, they play better defense, they're the better coached team, they're the more explosive offensive team, they're the better perimeter team, they're the more experienced team, they have the location advantage playing in California and most people expect them to win. And they're laying only 3 points. In other words, buyer beware all around. Play: UCLA -3 (low confidence); Over 123 (low confidence)

No comments: