(3) Washington State -6.5 vs. (14) Oral Roberts (O/U: 120.5)
I have to admit when I was watching the bracket announcement show and Andy Katz pointed this out as a possible upset, I immediately circled Washington State to probably cover. Nothing against Andy Katz, I think he's a great analyst, but the odds of a 14-seed upsetting a 3-seed 3 years in a row are miniscule at best.
Washington State is an interesting team. They came pretty much out of nowhere this year, which is probably one of the main reasons most people expect them to not survive the first weekend. The tournament history is littered with teams like this, BCS conference teams that have unexpected seasons and then flame out when it's all on the line (look at Iowa in '06, Boston College in '05 and NC State in '04). Wazzu does fit the profile: they have an inconsistent PG, they lack size, they have a rookie coach, they play tough defense but their offense can sputter. One thing working for them, is the novelty of their defense could really confuse opponents that are predisposed to facing basic man-to-mans and zones. And they were a tough out on the road this year, with 3 of their 4 road losses coming against tournament teams (those 3 losses were by an average of just 4 points vs. UCLA, Oregon and Stanford... they had one blip on the schedule, a 14-point road loss to Utah).
So why Oral Roberts? Well, they will have the best player on the floor, Caleb Green. They have surprisingly good size for a mid-major. And they have senior leadership. Unfortunately they also turn the ball over a lot, which is murder for these small schools trying to pull off a big upset.
The play to make: The 6.5 points has to be one of the shortest lines in history for a 3 vs. 14 match-up, and Wazzu may see this as an insult. Remember, these guys just beat their rivals from Washington on a neutral court by 10 points less than a week ago in the Pac-10 semis. Unfortunately, from what I'm reading, the Cougars and their coach are displaying a "just happy to be here" kind of vibe which might not bode well in this game. There is no doubt Oral Roberts is a live dog, but I'm not willing to take just 6.5 points. I'd possibly be willing to lay 6 points or less with the Cougars. The public seems pretty much split 50/50 and you have to figure Andy Katz has something to do with that. I have absolutely no insight on this total, but if you're going to play it, I have no idea why you'd take the Over? Especially if expect Oral Roberts to keep it close.
Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Eagles vs. Cougars. Early edge to the eagle obviously, because it can fly. But have you seen their logo? Edge: Washington State
Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Depends on what kind of oral! Ba-da ching! No, but seriously, she's taking Washington State. Edge: Washington State
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