Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Game preview #5: Butler vs. Old Dominion

(5) Butler -1.5 vs. (12) Old Dominion (O/U: 123)

The most obvious upset pick on the board Thursday, besides maybe VCU. After starting the year with victories over Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee and Gonzaga the Bulldogs saw their momentum slow down considerably down the stretch, losing to Illinois-Chicago, Loyola and Wright State twice (and So Ill in Bracket Busters, but there's certainly no shame in that). Old Dominion, meanwhile, struggled some early after stunning Georgetown in November, but won 12 straight games down the stretch before succumbing to George Mason in the CAA semis.

The CAA is the hot conference right now, and Old Dominion is an appealing team. Team experience and frontcourt scoring are key factors for a 12-seed upset and the Monarchs have both. They start 3 seniors and 2 juniors and have a bona fide inside threat in Valdis Vasilyus. Their coach has NCAA experience and this team was one-and-done in '05 and made an NIT Final 4 run in '06.

Butler is an uninspiring team, but they're a dangerous. They will set the tempo, and they will set it slow. If the game gets above the mid-60's they're in trouble. If they can take a lead, they tighten up their perimeter defense, making it difficult for opponents to play catch up. But if their outside shots are falling early, they will fall behind and they're not built to come from behind.

The play to make: Vegas sure knew this would be a popular upset pick when they set the line so low for Butler. The public is still making plays on Butler however, at what seems to be about a 65/35 clip. I have no idea why. The play here is Old Dominion +1.5 and Old Dominion +114 (hopefully you can find better, and you probably can on Matchbook). If you're playing the total, play the Under. Personally, I won't be playing the total.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Well, a Monarch could probably pass some rules that no bulldog would be able to petition. Plus, their mascot is a lion, who also seems to be king and I'm just not messing with that. Edge: Old Dominion

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Bulldogs are just fucking adorable and you're just going to have to learn to deal with that. Edge: Butler

No comments: