(1) Kansas -8.5 vs. (4) Southern Illinois (O/U: 125.5)
It's put up or shut up time for the young Jayhawks. After rolling past Niagara and Kentucky, Kansas faces their toughest test of the tournament in Southern Illinois (arguably their toughest test since losing to Texas A&M on February 3rd). The Jayhawks now own a 13-game winning streak, the 3rd longest in the country behind Ohio State (19) and Memphis (24).
These are two surprisingly similar teams. Both like to dictate pace with tight man-to-man defense and quality rebounding. Both have solid dribble penetration and outside shooting, but their offense can go cold if the jumpers aren't falling.
A few things have to go right for the Salukis to win this thing. They have to neutralize Kansas' transition offense and force them into jump shots in the half-court offense. Randal Falker has to play above his size (as he usually does) and match up with Julian Wright. Matt Shaw has to stretch the defense and keep Sasha Kaun away from the boards. And Jamal Tatum has to shoot lights-out while expending energy on the defensive end.
Battle of the Mascots: Jayhawks have the ability to fly but otherwise they seem like pacifists. Salukis are dopey looking dogs, but they are hunting dogs and they hunt by sight, so the unsightly blue bird shouldn't be difficult to track down. Edge: SIU
Battle of Famous Alumni: Bob Dole, Kirstie Alley, Paul Rudd and Wilt Chamberlain for Kansas. For Southern Illinois, it's Jim Belushi, Walt Frazier, Jenny McCarthy and the guy who played Shaft. But remember... Jim is the lame Belushi. Edge: Kansas
What's the play to make: This is a tough one to call. Normally, you shouldn't be backing an underdog unless you think they have a chance to win the game. It's been a rough tournament for underdogs... after covering in a remarkably low 7 out of 32 1st Round games, underdogs had a good run on Saturday, going 6-2 ATS, only to falter again on Sunday, going 3-5 ATS. So overall, underdogs are only 16-32 ATS so far this tournament (8-40 straight up). This is far-and-away the toughest team Southern Illinois has played this year, even though SIU is arguably the toughest defensive team Kansas has faced all year. The natural inclination in this game is to take the points, expecting a tough defensive battle. Even though I don't expect SIU to win, it's hard to argue against that play. The total seems like it's set low, and the public is biting, so the Under is a decent play. Play: Southern Illinois +8.5 (low confidence); Under 125.5 (medium confidence)
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment