Broken Tackle's Weekend Wrap-up

Some things to ponder if your bracket now looks like the last 15 minutes of The Departed:


1) What does this say about Kevin Durant? He couldn't carry his team the Final 4, so he's no Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Mike Bibby, Marcus Camby, Grant Hill or Danny Manning. Then again, he's also no Jay Williams, Juan Dixon, John Wallace or Bryant Reeves.

How many current NBA stars failed to reach the Sweet 16? Shaq is probably the most well known, going 0-for-3 when he played for LSU. Steve Nash never reached it in 4 tries, but he played for little-known Santa Clara, and in his presence they made 3 tournament appearances in 4 years, including one incredible upset as a 15-seed over a 2-seed.

Probably just as important: Kobe Bryant, Tracey McGrady, Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming and Amare Stoudemire never reached a Sweet 16, let alone a Final 4. So yeah, there's that.


2) This is the first bracket since '95 without a single double-digit seed reaching the Sweet 16. This is no coincidence. The '95 draft was also the year Kevin Garnett was taken 5th overall straight out of high school. This opened the door for Kobe Bryant and Jermaine O'Neal in '96; Tracey McGrady in '97; and you know the story from there.

This was the first year that the NBA instituted its age limit, and college basketball has been the beneficiary. Though the irony may be that a lot of these freshman sensations flamed out in the first two rounds, and the Sweet 16 is littered with veteran teams like UCLA, Florida, Butler, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Southern Illinois and Pittsburgh.


3) David Wells has diabetes. In other news: Pete Rose bet on baseball, Roger Clemens can't make a decision, the sky is blue and the War in Iraq is fucked.

Game preview #16: Indiana vs. Gonzaga

(7) Indiana -1.5 vs. (10) Gonzaga (O/U: 142)

Deja vu for these two teams, battling again in the NCAA tournament with the winner moving on to play UCLA.

Indiana had their most solid year in a long under new coach Kelvin Sampson. And Sampson has had some tournament success in the past. But they've really struggled on the road this year which makes you question their toughness for an NCAA tournament run. This is a pretty typical IU club, they can shoot the lights out from 3-point land and they have only one true inside presence, the undersized but tough-as-nails D.J. White.

Gonzaga, meanwhile, had their worst season in a long time. This team looked dead in the water about a month ago, with Josh Heytvelt suspended, their home winning streak snapped and Santa Clara pulling away in the conference standings. But the Bulldogs rallied, and came away with the WCC regular season and tournament titles. Incredibly, this team has had more success as a 9-16 seed (8-4 record with 3 Sweet 16 appearances in 4 tries) than they've had as a 1-8 seed (4-4 record with 1 Sweet 16 appearance in 4 tries). So, if the underdog shoe fits you might as well wear it, and this is the team who redefined underdog in this decade, opening the door for the Kent States and George Masons of the world.

This game will be a battle on the perimeter. With Adam Morrison playing in Charlotte and Josh Heytvelt conversing with giant pink elephants in his jail cell (speculatory), the Zags rely heavily
on their 1-2 guard combo of Jeremy Pargo and Derek Raivio. It may sound trite and over-simplified, but this game really will come down to which team's guards do a better job shooting the ball. If one team or the other goes through a cold stretch, that could spell the end.

The play to make: The public is surprisingly split about 50/50 on this game, considering that espn.com users picked Gonzaga as their only consensus upset of the 1st Round in the National Bracket. Obviously that 1.5 points doesn't leave any room for error on either side, so you need to keep it simple and pick who you think is going to win. Though it may be public perception, I think Gonzaga +1.5 is still the correct side. Also, some line movement indicates the Under is a sharp play as well, maybe a better play than siding with the Zags.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Well, this depends on which Hoosier we're talking about. Larry Bird is a "hoosier" and he could kick a bulldog's ass. But Michael Jackson is also one and he most certainly couldn't. In fact, just for having a nickname that could potentially describe Michael Jackson, this is an choice. Edge: Gonzaga

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Kelvin Sampson is like a big, cuddly, formal teddy bear in a suit. Edge: Indiana

Game preview #15: Pittsburgh vs. Wright State

(3) Pittsburgh -10 vs. (14) Wright State (O/U: 119.5)

Reviewing the pre-requisites for a 14-over-3 upset, this one doesn't qualify at all. Wright State is not a high scoring squad, in fact they barely score at all, the Raiders averaged a paltry 64 points per game this season. Wright State is led by DaShaun Wood, a do-everything PG that was the Horizon Conference player of the year. Really though, they don't have much else. They played ok for much of the season, then turned it on at the end, upset Butler in February, and then upset the Bulldogs again in the Horzon title game to make it to the big dance.

Wright State's lack of any interior presence really could spell doom for them, especially against a Pittsburgh team that can pound the ball inside with Aaron Gray. Not to mention the 6-10 Levon Kendall, and the 6-8/245 Tyrell Biggs off the bench. Pitt's guard play is underrated as well, Levance Fields is athletic enough to hang with Wood and make the rest of Wright State beat them.

The play to make: Wright State has become a pretty vogue upset pick, but I think that's reaching. So long as the line isn't outrageous, you should really never take the dog unless you expect them to win outright. That being said, it's hard to bank on Pittsburgh winning this game by double-digits. Make a small play on Pittsburgh -10 in this one, and as low as the Under seems, it still might be a good play.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Not sure what a raider is really, but for some reason their logo is a coyote-looking thing. Still, they're going against a pretty pissed-off looking panther. Edge: Pittsburgh

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Aaron Gray is delicious. Edge: Pittsburgh

Game preview #14: BYU vs. Xavier

(8) BYU +2 vs. (9) Xavier (O/U: 148.5)

Very few people are talking about this game, probably because it's going to be on late at night and the winner is most likely going to be served up on a platter to Ohio State on Saturday. Both these teams flew completely under the radar this year.

BYU is led by senior PG Austin Ainge, son of former NBA star and current NBA lottery ticket holder (grand prize: Kevin Durant), Danny Ainge. Ainge plays a lot like his dad, a good floor general and a good 3-point shooter but can get absolutely embarrassed on defense. Their star player however is Keena Young, one of the most underrated players in the nation, probably because he's a black guy who plays for BYU.

Xavier is getting ripped on for their inclusion in the tournament after they flamed out against Rhode Island in the A-10 semifinals. But this is a pretty solid team, they like to get out and run and they have some solid upperclassmen leadership. This game will be determined on the perimeter, neither team has a true post presence. That could make for a really wide open contest, and also could open the door for Keena Young to really dominate this game.

The play to make: This is one of the most curious lines in the 1st Round. After Xavier's tournament inclusion caused a collective groan from most of the tourney analysts, one would expect BYU, a team many considered under-seeded to be established as the favorites. But not only has Xavier been given favored status, the line has increased a half-point even though the general population is taking BYU as the underdog. Maybe because MWC teams have fared so poorly in the NCAA tournament? BYU looked like one the best plays on the board at first, but that line movement has to give you some pause. I still think the BYU money line (+127 if you can get it) is the best play. Give the Under some consideration as well, especially if you think BYU is winning this game.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: As opposed to popular belief, BYU actually has a pretty bad-ass mascot, a cougar. A musketeer might put up a fight for a while, but eventually the cougar is going to overcome that wussy little thin sword and have himself a musketeer buffet. Edge: BYU

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Something about Mormons always creeps her out. Edge: Xavier

Game preview #13: UCLA vs. Weber State

(2) UCLA -20 vs. (15) Weber State (O/U: 128)

So what happened to UCLA? The Bruins rolled along all season before dropping their regular season closer to Washington and then their Pac-10 quarterfinal match-up with California. For those scoring at home, that's two teams that didn't even make the NIT. Then again, maybe the Bruins are crazy like a fox. While every other 1 and 2 seed played at least two games this past weekend, UCLA has been resting since last Thursday.

UCLA is arguably the best defensive team in the tournament. If they're making their shots, they can and will beat anyone else in the field, the problem is the shots aren't always falling. If someone's going to beat UCLA they're going to do it by pounding the ball inside and wearing away at the Bruins' lack of interior size or depth. Still, they've got three perimeter guys: Darren Collison, Aaron Afflalo and Josh Shipp, who are capable of taking over a game at any time and willing this team to victory.

Weber State... well, they're Weber State. They like to keep things tight defensively as well, but they obviously don't have the scorers or athletes to match UCLA. Not to mention, they like to turn the ball over a lot, which plays right into the Bruins' hands. Harold "The Show" Arceneaux is not walking through that door.

The play to make: This is a rare case where the public is expecting the 15-seed to keep it within 20 points. This is pretty possible, but I'm not sure why anyone would expect it to happen. UCLA can have their way with this team however they want, the real question is whether coach Ben Howland feels it's necessary to run up the score once it gets comfortable. My guess is no, and that's probably what Weber State backers are banking on. But this is playing with fire. I like the Under in this game, especially if it gets ugly early.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Finally, a man's man's fight, a wildcat and a bruin. The wildcat is wily and quick (and in this case, purple), but in the end the bruin will simply overpower it and get things over with. Edge: UCLA

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Gotta go with the heart here and show some appreciation for UCLA's classic blue-and-gold uniform color scheme. Edge: UCLA

Game preview #12: Marquette vs. Michigan State

(8) Marquette +2 vs. (9) Michigan State (O/U: 123)

Hey, did you guys know Tom Crean used to coach under Tom Izzo? No foolin'.

This is a tough draw for Marquette, who had a terrific season and probably deserved better than an 8-seed. You have to wonder if star guard Jerel McNeal's injury had anything to do with their seeding. So the question becomes: does this young team rally without their star player? Or are they doomed to one-and-done without him on the floor? Much of it will come down to PG Dominic James, who was inconsistent down the stretch with McNeal hurt. Marquette is young, quick and potentially deep enough to overcome McNeal's absence.

Michigan State is a pretty similar team, their star is guard Drew Neitzel. But they do have more of a solid inside presence than Marquette with Marquise Grey, Goran Suton and Drew Naymick down low. Sometimes the Spartans get themselves into trouble (sign of their youth) when they play isolation offense and everyone stands around watching Neitzel create. But otherwise, they have all the makings of a tourney sleeper: solid rebounding, hard-nosed defense and good scoring balance on offense. Plus this team was banged up much of the year but is healthy now.

The Big-10 is being seen as overrated heading into the tournament this year and with pretty good reason. The Big-10 style of play can be tedious to watch, and Big-10 teams had a tough time for the most part in their non-conference schedules. But with everyone overlooking them, don't be surprised if at least a couple Big-10 teams over-perform their seed. Few people expect Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois and Indiana to get past the 1st round, let alone into the Sweet 16. So don't be surprised when one or more of these squads make a surprise Sweet 16 run.

The play to make: Early money was on Marquette in this game, but once it became announced that McNeal was out indefinitely, the Spartans money train started flowing in. Yet, Vegas has shifted the line only half a point? Something is suspicious about that one. Play this one at your own risk, you'll probably end up feeling silly either way. The best play here is probably the Over. Tread carefully no matter what you do.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Another classic battle of human ingenuity vs. the ability to fly. Calling them the Spartans, however, leads you to imagine an entire army of Spartans. 300 is so hot right now. Edge: Michigan State

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Tom Izzo is dreamy, Drew Neitzel... not so much. That Marquette black-and-yellow color scheme? Blech. Edge: Michigan State

Game preview #11: Duke vs. Virginia Commonwealth

(6) Duke -6.5 vs. (11) Virginia Commonwealth (O/U: 135)

The selection committee must have some sense of humor, taking the two most reviled teams in the field (Duke and Notre Dame), sticking them on the 6-seed line and then matching them up against the two most popular Cinderella hopefuls heading into the tournament, VCU and Winthrop. Are they setting us all up, or setting it up for us to knock it down.

Your opinion on the outcome of this game is indicative of who you expect to set the pace in this game. Will Duke pound the ball inside and take advantage of their much bigger and more talented front-court? Or will VCU speed the game up and take advantage of their much quicker and smarter back-court? The Rams' PG Eric Maynor is a cult hero now (here's why, just in case you've been living in a cave the last 10 days), and most people are expecting him to make Greg Paulus his bitch. The rest of the Rams guard rotation is formidable as well: B.A. Walker, Jesse Pellot and Jamal Shuler are all excellent ball handlers and 3-point shooters. Their inside guys are over-matched, but they are active on defense and the glass and might be able to hold their own for stretches so long as the guards are stretching the opponent's defense with their dribble penetration and cutting off dribble penetration and passing lanes on the other end.

Duke is your typical Duke team: soft in the inside, thin bench, veteran leadership, well-coached, somewhat obnoxious. This is however, arguably, the least talented Duke team in over a decade. Josh McRoberts shows some flashes of greatness on the inside, but also will disappear for large stretches of the game. Greg Paulus is a slightly more talented Steve Wojchiewski, while freshman swingman Jon Scheyer definitely improved as the year progressed. The best player on the roster is probably DeMarcus Nelson, not only Duke's top scorer but also their best defender, and he'll probably be assigned to try and shut down Eric Maynor. Duke still plays their typical aggressive man-to-man defense, but often the offense will completely sputter and put them in bad spots.

The play to make: VCU +6.5 seemed like one of the easiest plays of the week when I first saw the lines released, but the more I've thought about it I've realized Duke is favored by more than two possessions for a reason. This team is over-rated as always, but they can be dangerous when Coach K has a few days to prepare his troops (say what you want about Coach K, but he will always have his guys ready to play if he gets a few days to do it... give him only a day or two to prepare and well, he's fucked, but that doesn't matter here). Getting Gerald "Left Hook" Henderson back after his one-game suspension could also be a serious boost. I think anyone who lays the points with Duke is crazy, but I also don't think VCU +6.5 is that solid of a play. However, if you do make that play, make sure you add VCU +248 and Over 135, because if the Rams are winning this game, they're going to do it by exacerbating the pace and wearing out the Blue Devils down the stretch with loads of points scored. Keep in mind too, the public is only slightly favoring the Dukies, which is a rarity vs. such a lesser known opponent.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Still not sure why a devil is blue. Would the devil make some sort of deal with the Ram for his soul? More likely, the ram would just roshambo the devil square in his nuts and that would be the end of it. Edge: VCU

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Lovin' those cute white boys from Duke. And when the NBA thing doesn't work out, that MBA thing will. Edge: Duke

Game preview #9/#10: Ohio State vs. Central Connecticut / North Carolina vs. Eastern Kentucky

(1) Ohio State -21 vs. (16) Central Connecticut State (O/U: 126.5)
(1) North Carolina -27 vs. (16) Eastern Kentucky (O/U: 142.5)

Not much to say about these games. North Carolina and Ohio State are going to win, let's start with that. Why anyone feels the need or desire to lay over 20 points in an NCAA tournament game is beyond me. The Buckeyes and Tar Heels know they will win these games easily, and couldn't care less how much they win by.

However... one interesting thing to note, similar to the note early on 2 vs. 15 games, 7 of the last 8 1 vs. 16 match-ups have been decided by 20 points or less. The only team to win by more was North Carolina, who beat Oakland by 28 points in the 1st Round in '05.

The play to make: Whether you're laying points or taking them, you're a braver man than I. The UNC-EKU line is somewhat interesting. Even though the public has been backing Eastern Kentucky, the spread is increasing (it opened at UNC -26). So it would appear there's some "sharp" money coming in on the Tar Heels to create that reverse line movement. Still, you'd have to somewhat batshit insane to want to make that play.

Game preview #8: Vanderbilt vs. George Washington

(6) Vanderbilt -3.5 vs. (11) George Washington (O/U: 140)

It was an uninspiring season for both these squads, but they're here, so get used to it. The Commodores had their typical type of season, difficult to beat at home, difficult to get anything done right on the road. The difference this year, was their easy-as-pie non-conference schedule and a very mediocre SEC level of competition. Thus, despite their SEC quarterfinal flame-out, their strong RPI lifted them to a 6-seed. So what's good about Vanderbilt? They have upperclassmen leadership (they start two seniors and three juniors), they're a terrific perimeter shooting team and they can spread the floor pretty effectively and wear out a team's defense. Unfortunately, Vanderbilt's own defense has struggled at times this year, including in back-to-back losses to Arkansas to finish the season (the second coming in the SEC quarterfinals).

George Washington, as usual, was led by some strong guard play, Maureece Rice and Carl Elliott are a formidable duo, who fill in each other's strengths and weaknesses quite well in all aspects on the court. Unfortunately for the Colonials, they lack any real size: the biggest man in their rotation is their 6-9, 220 pound center, Dokun Akingbade. Karl Hobbs has built a decent team in D.C., this is their third straight trip to the big dance. But this is probably the weakest of the three teams, GW snuck through the A-10 tournament thanks to top seeds Xavier and Massachusetts getting upset before the Colonials had to face them.

The play to make: Vanderbilt might be the weakest 6-seed on the board, but luckily for them, they drew arguably the weakest 11-seed. George Washington strikes fear in the heart of nobody in this tournament. Vanderbilt -3.5 is a good play, but not a great one. If you expect Vanderbilt to win, then you expect them to have no trouble slowing down the pace of this game and cutting off GW's transition offense. Therefore, instead of laying the 3.5 points, I recommend sticking to the Under.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: This is probably the gayest mascot battle of the entire first round. Commodores vs. Colonials? Let's just move on. Edge: even

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Ladies love guys with power, especially executive power, even if they've been dead for 200 years. Edge: George Washington

Game preview #7: Texas A&M vs. Pennsylvania

(3) Texas A&M -13.5 vs. (14) Pennsylvania (O/U: 135)

It's been a rough decade so far for the Ivy League schools, who made so much noise in the NCAA tournaments of the '90s. Pretty much no one expects Penn to win this game, let alone be competitive and well, maybe that's a sign you should consider betting on them. No one's really talking about Penn, but they do feature the legendary Ibby Jaaber, two-time Ivy League player of the year. Jaaber comprises a solid inside-outside duo with 6-7 Mark Zoller and the two tore up the Ivy this year. This is also the third straight tournament trip for this senior duo, so the bright lights won't be getting into their eyes.

Unfortunately for Jaaber, he's matched up against arguably the tournament's best PG in Acie Law. A&M is being considered a very dangerous team in this tournament and for good reason, the Aggies have experience, leadership, solid guard play, solid rebounding and clutch performances all around.

The play to make: The more I've looked this one over, the more I've been talking myself into Pennsylvania +13.5. They have the kind of slashing-and-shooting perimeter play that has given A&M trouble this year. Unfortunately for the Quakers, they also thrive off of sloppy guard play leading to turnovers, and that's something Acie Law won't be helping them out with. The public likes A&M to cover and I could see why, by the talent disparity this game could get ugly. But with everyone concentrating on Wright State and Oral Roberts as potential 14-seed upsets, Pennsylvania +13.5 might be a smart off-the-radar play. I also really like the Over in this game. Penn is regarded by the public as a defensive team, but they actually got out and scored some points this year, in both half-court and transition. The Over might be the best play overall in this match-up, though Penn +13.5 is the most inspired one.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: I have no idea what an aggie is, but I know that Quakers are pussies. I mean, look at this guy. I'll meet him in a dark alley any day. Edge: Texas A&M

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: When in doubt, go with the city (Philadelphia) that has hosted a season of The Real World. Edge: Pennsylvania