BrokenTackle

Broken Tackle's NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Preview: Part 2

2007-04-11T11:54:00.000-05:00

The 2007 NHL playoffs kick off Wednesday night, and for the first time in league history, don't include last year's Stanley Cup Finals participants, as the Oilers and Hurricanes both came up short of post-season berths.

Yesterday we previewed the first 8 teams to be eliminated in the Stanley Cup first round. Today we go through the final 8 teams all the way to the eventual champion.

On to today's rankings:

8. Nashville Predators (eliminated by Ducks in 4): About now would be the standard time for the Paul Kariya or Peter Forsberg injury that derails the Predators title hopes. But the fact is, even with some solid goaltending, the Predators don't have the depth or speed to keep up at all with Anaheim, even if everyone on Nashville stays healthy.

7. New York Rangers (eliminated by Sabres in 6): After dispatching of one New York team (the Islanders in Round 1), the Sabres take care of another when they roll over the Rangers. Expect some close games early in the series, but the Rangers lack of depth will finally catch up to them late, and their defenders will have a hard time with the Sabres' wave-after-wave of attack. The Rangers were a great story this year, with veterans Jaromir Jagr, Brendan Shanahan and Michael Nylander providing leadership through tough injuries and lapses in defensive play. If the team can reload on defense next year and get a full season of consistent play from forward Sean Avery, they will be dangerous next season.

6. Ottawa Senators (eliminated by Devils in 6): Anything short of a Stanley Cup at this point is a failure for the Senators, and this year their post-season futility will end thanks to a tough 2nd round match-up with New Jersey. Expect the Senators explosive front line of Dany Heatley, Daniel Alfredsson and Jason Spezza to get theirs against Martin Brodeur, but the issue is how long the inexperienced Ray Emery can hold in goal for Ottawa. Emery has played terrific down the stretch, but he's young and he's playing with former starter Martin Gerber breathing down his neck. Expect Emery to come out with some nerves in the 2nd round and the Devils will take advantage, and by the time the Senators switch to Gerber, it will be too late.

5. Detroit Red Wings (eliminated by Stars in 7): A tough 1st Round match-up won't help Detroit much as they head into a confrontation with the big, physical Stars. The Red Wings did toughen up this season, especially by adding badass Todd Bertuzzi. But as usual, this is an older team, especially with Dominik Hasek in goal, and the longer this series goes, the worse off Detroit will be. This series will come down to Bertuzzi's play, if he can disrupt the action in front of the net and hassle Marty Turco, the Wings might come away with the series. Otherwise, Detroit could find it tough to score, especially as their defensive scorers start to wear down.

4. Dallas Stars (eliminated by Ducks in 6): Marty Turco has a chance this year to really pull a Peyton Manning and throw off the shackles of a playoff "choker" label. The problem is, up front the Stars are a little too seasoned and a little too shallow. This could be a last hurrah for Mike Modano and Eric Lindros, who have been playing well down the stretch. The Stars play a tight puck-control game that can work wonders come playoff time, but will probably wither against a Ducks team with too much talent on every line for Dallas to keep up with.

3. New Jersey Devils (eliminated by Sabres in 7): In one of the most curious GM moves in recent sports history (and remember, this recent history includes Isaiah Thomas), Devils GM Lou Lamorellio fired head coach Claude Julien and named himself head coach with only three games left in the schedule for a #2 seed. The level to which the Devils respond will of course define the length of their playoff run. Defense and goaltending usually win championships, and New Jersey has both in spades, with first-ballot HOF'er Marty Brodeur in net and John Madden and Brian Rafalski manning the blue line. Buffalo can't match New Jersey's defense and goaltending in terms of experience, but they can match it in talent and their deep and dangerous offense will be able to get key goals when the Devils can't.

2. Buffalo Sabres (eliminated by Ducks in 7): Dare we predict the Buffalo Sabres, a team with no championship in their rich history, a team whose heart has been broken on a regular basis in the Stanley Cup playoffs, a team with an eager fan base yearning for a title from one of its two disappointing pro teams as some kind of reward for lasting another harsh Buffalo winter; dare we predict the Sabres lose the Stanley Cup Finals to a hockey team from L.A. started somewhat in jest by Disney to cross-promote a kids movie with Emilio Estevez, unleashed one of the ugliest jerseys in pro sports history and is full of high-priced veterans and a French goalie named Jean-Sebastien? Yes, yes we do dare.

1. Anaheim Ducks (Your Stanley Cup Champions): Sorry Buffalo, but you'll have to join the Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs fans in one more year of wanting to hang yourselves. The Ducks are loaded at every position, well-coached and led by former playoff breakout goalie Jean-Sebastien Giguere. Another title for an Anaheim (L.A. Jr.) pro team may seem dubious, but the sweet poetic justice here is that the title will happen only after CEO Mickey Mouse sold the team, and the now contentious Ducks have shed their wholesome image and led the NHL in fighting penalty minutes this year. Watch for veteran Teemu Selanne to hoist the first Stanley Cup of his 17-year career and promptly beat somebody over the head with it, just as God intended the cup to be used.

(And if you need further reason to cheer for Selanne, check out his Babe Ruthian hat trick earlier this year in honor of a friend with cancer).

Quack! Quack! Quack! Quack!

Just Let the Racist Idiot Be a Racist Idiot

2007-04-10T13:55:00.000-05:00

I can't be the only one who's sick of this. How many times has this scenario played out in this country? The ignorant and insubstantial public figure makes a stupid and offensive comment. Everyone has to act overly indignant, even though none of us really care that much. In the end, the public figure makes a hollow apology, and we all continue to act incensed until we just stop caring on a literal level. Then they go back to being just as ignorant but slightly less insubstantial because of all the attention we just afforded them for being ignorant.

Nobody should give a crap about Don Imus. Imus has been an insignificant speck on the radio landscape ever since Howard Stern kicked his ass in the WNBC ratings in the mid 80's. There's probably about two dozen people left in this country who still listen to Imus on a regular basis. The only reason anyone knows the name anymore is from Stern making occasional remarks about what a useless douche nozzle Imus is.

When Don Imus made the comment that the Rutgers women's basketball team was a bunch of "nappy-headed ho's" we, as a society, should've shrugged and thought to ourselves "that douchebag Imus is still on the air?"

But no, Al Sharpton and Jessie Jackson had to get involved. Approximately 12,000 sports columnists had to voice their opinion about it. And the Rutgers coach had to throw a press conference to call him "deplorable and despicable." This is an actual quote from the coach, C. Vivien Stringer:

I don't know how anyone could have heard this and not been personally hurt and offended. When there is not equality for all or when there's been denied equality for one, there's been denied equality for all.

I mean, is she describing her basketball team or the Little Rock 9? Is she seriously giving Don Imus that much authority over us as a culture? I wasn't personally hurt or offended because Imus is a friggin' moron and I couldn't care less what he has to say about anything.

(By the way, your fearless author is a Jewish-American who wasn't the least bit offended by the comments of Micheal Ray Richardson and I'm actually somewhat offended by all the media jag-offs who acted as if they were personally offended).

What all these people need to understand is that 98% of the country already agree with what I'm saying. We don't need the Rutgers coach to tell us the comments were deplorable, we're smart enough to figure that out for ourselves. I can understand the Rutgers team being offended, but I don't understand the need to throw a press conference just to let us know how offended they are.

As for the other 2% of the country who agree with Imus? Well, guess what, we're never convincing those ignorant morons otherwise. But some of those 98% are going to see people like Al Sharpton running his mouth, acting as if the incident has anything to do with him, and maybe even start to feel some vicarious sort of sympathy for Imus. In other words, putting on this big show in the media isn't going to get much done, and if anything, it's going to backfire.

What the Al Sharptons and Jemele Hills of the world need to learn is that in a society as sensitively advanced as ours, often it's a better idea to just let the racist idiots be racist idiots. Instead of stating the obvious counterpoints to their ignorance, why not just let them twist in the wind as we all jointly mock them as a cultural pariah?

It's the further expansion of the lowest common denominator stance in America. We always have to pander to the dumbest and most irresponsible out of all of us. This incident reminded me of a video link someone once sent me of that idiot Tyra Banks engaging in a debate with Shirley Phelps, better known as the God Hates Fags lady. The problem here is, Banks only gets a TV show because she used to be a supermodel, whereas Phelps is a lawyer and a shrewd public speaker. By the end of the debate, I found myself actually siding with the God Hates Fags lady. How the hell did that happen? Because Banks is an idiot who thinks she's deep by trying to point out the flaws in Phelps' lifestyle and ideals. Of course, Banks' audience ate it up. But those of us who aren't trained donkeys clapping at an "applause" sign didn't need Banks to point out these flaws because ANYONE WITH THE BRAIN OF A 4-YEAR OLD CAN SEE THE FLAWS FOR THEMSELVES.

I contrast this with the aforementioned Howard Stern, who frequently brings Phelps on as a guest simply to mock her by allowing her to espouse her insensible views without interruption (save for the occasional goading). That's because Stern understands that these views can stand on their own as mockable and ridiculous without the need for commentary and disagreement. Instead of ignoring the fact that there's a "God Hates Fags" lady, and instead of dropping down to her level by arguing with her, Stern instead does his audience a service by simply keeping them on guard to the fact that such ignorance and douchebaggery still exists in the world.

This is something that people like Al Sharpton will never understand. The only person in this whole Don Imus controversy who came off looking solid was Cal Ripken. As you may or may not have heard, Ripken was (for some reason) scheduled to appear on Imus' show later this week, but after learning of Imus' comments decided to cancel his appearance.

And that was it.

And that's how we should all handle a situation like this. If you didn't care about Don Imus before, then you should shrug your shoulders at his ignorance and continue to not care. If for some reason, in the course of your future life, your path was intended to cross with Imus' path, then take another path. That's how you get these ignorant racists to go away. You don't do it by making them apologize or firing them or suspending them or writing scathing columns about them. You do it by just letting them continue to be ignorant racists, but let them be an ignorant racist that we all admit exists, but eventually ignore.

Broken Tackle's NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Preview: Part 1

2007-04-10T09:23:00.000-05:00

The 2007 NHL playoffs kick off Wednesday night, and for the first time in league history, don't include last year's Stanley Cup Finals participants, as the Oilers and Hurricanes both came up short of post-season berths.

Over the next two days, we'll be ranking the 16 playoff teams in the order by which they'll be eliminated from this year's playoffs. Today we start with the 8 teams getting eliminated in Round 1, tomorrow will be the final 8 teams up to the Stanley Cup champions.

So break out your dead octopi and start growing your playoff beard, it's Stanley Cup time!

16. New York Islanders (eliminated by Sabres in 4): Congratulations to the Islanders on scratching and clawing your way into the playoffs, now enjoy getting decimated by the Sabres. It is hard not to cheer for the Islanders in this series. They're coached by former spurned Sabres coach Ted Nolan, they had to run the table in their final four games to reach the playoffs, they're lead by Oilers cast-off Ryan Smyth and due to injury, their starting goalie is Wade Dubielewicz, a minor league call up who answers to the nickname "Doobie" and has Yoda painted on his mask. The Islanders physicality might allow them to steal a game at home, but beyond that, the Sabres' speed and depth is way too much to overcome.

15. Minnesota Wild (eliminated by Ducks in 5): Coach Jacques Lemaire knows how to slow down speedy opponents and the Ducks could play right into his hands with their wide-open offense. Unfortunately Lemaire's Wild team just doesn't have the talent to hang with Anaheim for too long. The Minnesota offense is too dependent on Martin Gaborik, and he can most likely be neutralized by the Ducks' physical defensemen. Replacement goalie Niklas Backstrom will keep most games close, but the Wild will not be able to generate enough offense to fulfill Lemaire's strategy.

14. Tampa Bay Lightning (eliminated by Devils in 6): The Lightning boast one of the league's top lines, with NHL leading-scorer Vincent LaCavalier, Martin St. Louis and Brad Richards; the three stars of Tampa Bay's '04 Stanley Cup victory. Unfortunately, it's quite a drop-off in talent after those three, most of the rest of the team struggled to really score or defend all season. Goalie Johan Holmqvist showed some flashes this year, but he's inconsistent and has no previous playoff experience. Meanwhile, you get the sense that Marty Brodeur knows he has limited chances left to win his fourth Stanley Cup title. The Devils trademark pressure defense will limit any chances for Tampa Bay beyond their first line, and Brodeur should shut them down effectively enough for New Jersey to lose no more than a game or two.

13. San Jose Sharks (eliminated by Predators in 6): The Sharks have a little bit of history against them this year. This is the third time in the past decade that they enter a playoff re-match in back-to-back years. The last two times, they won the first series and then fell in the ensuing series. Nashville reminds us an awful lot of last year's Hurricanes squad, led by veteran free agent veterans Paul Kariya and Peter Forsberg mixed with young stars Alexander Radulov and David Legwand. They even have an unheralded backup goalie, Chris Mason, set to fill in for the hobbled starter, Tomas Vokoun. The Sharks will need big scoring days from Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton to compete.

12. Pittsburgh Penguins (eliminated by Senators in 6): Don't get it twisted, if David Stern was running the NHL, Sidney Crosby and the Penguins would be making a run to at least the Eastern Conference Finals. But with Gary Bettman in charge, the young megastar and his talented prodigy teammates (Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal) are likely to fall in the first round to the deeper and more experienced team from Ottawa. If the Penguins are to make a run, they'll need some major production from their playoff neophyte goalie, Marc-Andre Fleury.

11. Vancouver Canucks (eliminated by Stars in 6): This will likely be the lowest scoring series in the entire playoffs, as both teams have struggled to put the puck in the net late in the year. Dallas has been beset by injuries, and is trying to shake the "choker" label of veteran goalie Marty Turco and forward Eric Lindros. Luckily for Lindros, he isn't asked to carry this team, but Turco will be the focal point night-in-and-night-out. The Stars have a favorable draw here, even as the lower seed, as the Canucks feature a green goalie in Robert Luongo. Even though Luongo played lights-out much of the season, this is his first playoff appearance and the Canucks don't have enough scoring options to cover his ass.

10. Calgary Flames (eliminated by Red Wings in 7): It could be deja vu for Detroit, once again entering the playoffs as the #1 seed in the West only to face a tough, physical, well-coached #8 seed in the first round. Last year the Wings were eliminated by the eventual Western Conference champion Oilers. It's tempting to say they fall again to the Flames, but Detroit bulked up and hardened in the off-season to prepare for just such a series. Dominik Hasek vs. Mikka Kiprusoff is probably the best goalie match-up of the first round. Unfortunately for Calgary, it's hard to imagine where their scoring will come from outside of Jarome Iginla.

9. Atlanta Thrashers (eliminated by Rangers in 7): The Thrashers and Rangers are two very similar teams: solid, veteran forwards; unheralded defenders; inexperienced goalies. Give the edge to the Rangers in the defensive department in this series, and that will likely be the difference. We also like the fact that Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist has at least one season of playoff experience under his belt. Look for big games from Rangers forwards Sean Avery and Martin Straka to overcome the Thrashers explosiveness of Ilya Kovalchuk and Keith Tkachuk. By the way, even though we expect the Rangers to win, we are cheering for the Thrashers in these playoffs simply on the basis that not only is Lil' Jon a fan, he actually has a blog dedicated to the team.

2nd round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals coming tomorrow!

Even the Easter Bunny Couldn't Save Tiger Woods

2007-04-09T12:54:00.000-05:00

Yes, Tiger Woods is somewhat human. But don't be too hard on the golfing prodigy, because there probably isn't a human alive who could defeat Jesus on Easter Sunday.

After finishing his fourth round of The Masters with a sizable lead, Zach Johnson credited Jesus for the victory, telling CBS cameras that he felt the lord and savior walking with him every step of the way. Yes, because, as usual, Jesus H. Christ had nothing better to do with his Easter Sunday then walk around a golf course in Augusta, Georgia with a bunch of privileged white people playing one of the silliest games ever invented.

Tiger Woods missing tough putts on the back 9 that could've tied him with Johnson is further proof, of course, that God hates cablasians. And God, overall, still really, really despises John Daly.

But we knew that already.

So, to recap, Jesus > Tiger Woods. For now. When Tiger is busy winning the British Open and PGA Championship while Zach Johnson slips back into 63rd place and general obscurity (Mike Weir, anyone?), maybe it's because Jesus is busy helping poor children in Africa. Or something else less important like that. But hey, maybe this year they can hold the Nissan Open on All Saint's Day, just so we know Jesus is paying attention again to Zach Johnson's short game.

Broken Tackle's Weekend Wrap-Up

2007-04-09T08:31:00.000-05:00

Some other things that we learned this weekend outside of never sucker punch Tony Soprano...

1) Ah, springtime. Flowers are blooming. Birds are singing. Bees are trying to have sex with them (as is our understanding). And baseball season is underway. The only problem is, mother nature and global warming don't want to cooperate.

For those who still don't believe in global warming (we're looking at you, Utah, Kentucky and George W. Bush)... we present Exhibit A: Jacob's Field in April looking like Jacob's Field during the second ice age. And Exhibit B: Elijah Dukes rounds third base in a game in Yankee Stadium looking like Nanook of the North on his way to rob a train station.

It would appear that Al Gore might have a point.

2) Dwyane Wade returned last night, but the Heat dropped a tough one to the cellar-dwelling Bobcats, pretty much destroying their chance at home-court advantage in a first round series. Meanwhile, the Lakers fell to the Suns, dropping them to the 7th seed out West. And the Toronto Raptors pile-drived the Bulls, pulling them within striking distance of the 2nd seed in the East. NBA playoff seeding fever!

3) On the final day of the NHL regular season, the New York Islanders needed a shoot-out victory over the Devils to clinch the Eastern Conference 8th seed over the Toronto Maple Leafs. This is, of course, a great day for Americans who hate Canadians (especially Americans who give a crap about hockey), as the Islanders join teams from Tampa, Atlanta, Nashville and San Jose in this year's playoffs; while traditional Canadian powerhouses from Montreal, Toronto and Edmonton will be forced to watch the playoffs from home (assuming Canada carries the Versus network). The Islanders reward? Probably a first-round sweep at the hands of the Buffalo Sabres. More on the NHL playoffs later this week.

Barry Bonds is Still Black

2007-04-05T00:37:00.000-05:00

On April 15th, Major League Baseball will celebrate a very-special episode of Jackie Robinson Day, the one where we fete the 60th anniversary of Robinson breaking the color barrier in baseball.

The fact that we feel strangely compelled to give special treatment to the round, even numbers like 60 as opposed to the 59th anniversary or 61st anniversary is probably an impracticable point. (I might have been too young at the time to notice whether we gave special recognition to the 42nd anniversary in 1989, though I suppose that would've been pretty cool if we did).

A lot of people will commemorate this anniversary in different ways. Bud Selig will probably make a bunch of political statements in the form of press releases. The Los Angeles Dodgers plan on all wearing #42 that day in honor of Robinson. Many members of the mass media are likely already salivating at the excuse to write a faux-sociological dissertation on "The Scarcity of the Modern African-American Baseball Player and Why This is Important and How Did This Happen and What Will We Do to Remedy It?"

Ken Griffey Jr., one of the few high profile African-American baseball stars left, lobbied the Major League offices for the right to wear #42 on April 15th in honor of Robinson's legend. The MLB brass thought it was such a good idea, that they've extended the offer to one player on every single team.

One of the first players to take them up on that offer? Our old friend, Barry Bonds.

This is interesting on many, many levels. Bonds, of course, was one of the most abhorred athletes in the country before we all suspected he was taking steroids. And perhaps it says something about our evolution as a society that even subconsciously, we don't appear to hate Bonds because he's black. We hate him because he's an egotistical jerk.

But remember, according to Book of Shadows, one of the main reasons Bonds was compelled to take steroids in the first place was because of what he perceived as undue naivety of the American people towards Mark McGwire's obvious steroid use, simply because he was white. Learning this created a very interesting abstraction: did Barry Bonds take steroids just to teach us a lesson about racism?

The answer is probably not. By all accounts, Bonds is too self-serving a human being to take steroids with the intention to create a transcendent moment in American sports culture. (There's nothing wrong with that. 98% of us would be too self-serving to do that). But the answer here isn't as important as how we potentially react to the question.

A lot of people (both civilians and members of the media) are going to take their pot-shots at Bonds over the next few days saying he doesn't deserve to honor Jackie Robinson. But I think no player in the last 60 years of baseball is more qualified than Bonds to honor Jackie Robinson. Because in his own self-aggrandizing way, Bonds has forced us to contemplate the correlation that still exists between sports and race.

Guys like Hank Aaron and Willie Mays and Frank Robinson were easy to like. This is especially true if you weren't actually alive when they played. They are probably three of the six or eight greatest hitters who ever lived and by all explanations were solid citizens who represented the game of baseball with aplomb both on and off the field. Compare this to many of the great "white" hitters of the 21st century: guys who we've come to know as pompous loners (Ted Williams), domineering narcissists (Joe DiMaggio) or womanizing alcoholics (Babe Ruth).

One could argue that Barry Bonds was the first fatally flawed black baseball player. The first black baseball player we were inclined to hate.

60 years ago, many Americans hated Jackie Robinson simply because he was a black man playing a white man's game. Over 30 years ago, many Americans hated Hank Aaron simply because he was a black man trying to break the most hallowed record set by a white man. Today, most of us hate Barry Bonds, who happens to be a black man, simply because he's a conceited jerk who wears earrings and cheated. But subconsciously, we all worry about Bonds being right, that we hate him on a deeper level because he's just another black man trying to re-write our culture.

Whether he intended to or not, Barry Bonds has reflexively forced us to glimpse into the juxtaposition of sports and race more so than any baseball player since Robinson. He was the first black athlete we were forced to deal with because he's a jerk. And he was the first black athlete we were forced to deal with because he's a cheater.

Let Bonds wear #42. Whether you hate him or not, he deserves it more than anyone.

Broken Tackle's NBA Mock Draft, Vol. 1

2007-04-04T12:11:00.000-05:00

For the first time in over a decade, this year's NCAA Tournament doubled as an opportunity to scout almost all the top prospects in this year's NBA draft. With the will-he-or-won't-he rumors flying about all the underclassmen deciding whether or not to remain in school, and NBA teams tanking left and right to jockey for lottery position, this will be the most rudimentary and disjointed of all the mock drafts.

So, in all likelihood, it will probably end up being the most accurate.

1. Memphis Grizzlies - Greg Oden, C, Ohio State (Fr). Was already the consensus #1 ahead of Durant before blowing the doors off the national title game. If he pans out, he's the best center prospect since Shaq. At worst, he's a more athletic Robert Parish. (NBA comparison: Godzilla, if he learned to dribble and box out. I'm not talking about any NBA player nicknamed "Godzilla" I'm talking about the actual giant skyscraper-destroying lizard).

2. Boston Celtics - Kevin Durant, F, Texas (Fr). Holding the #2 spot in the draft this year will be a win-win situation for the lucky lottery runner-up. Not only are you guaranteed Oden or Durant, you can let the team ahead of you make the tough decision. (NBA comparison: Kevin Garnett with a jump shot).

3. Milwaukee Bucks - Corey Brewer, G/F, Florida (Jr). Brewer (or, to a lesser extent, Jeff Green) would be a dream come true for the Bucks, a team ready to contend now with Terri Stotts collecting unemployment and the team getting healthy. Brewer (a surname any red-blooded Milwaukee-an can appreciate and love) can step in immediately and perfectly complement Michael Redd. (NBA comparison: slightly shorter Lamar Odom).

4. Phoenix Suns - Al Horford, F, Florida (Sr). It really is unfair that the loaded Suns get this pick from Atlanta, but what can you do, the Hawks are idiots. The Suns are in the market for more bodies inside, and outside of Oden, Horford is the most NBA ready big man in the draft class, both physically and mentally. (NBA comparison: Zach Randolph minus the douchebagginess).

5. Charlotte Bobcats - Jeff Green, F, Georgetown (Jr). It's been hit-or-miss for the Bobcats picking high the past few years. Some would argue the 'Cats should take Green's teammate Hibbert and plug him in right away, but I don't think Jordan is interested in an old-school plodding center. Jordan likes scoring, and even though Green helped eliminate his Tar Heels in the tourney, expect to go after the guy on the board with a high basketball IQ who can score at will. (NBA comparison: do-it-all Josh Howard).

6. Philadelphia 76ers - Brandan Wright, F, North Carolina (Fr). It's no secret the Sixers need help pretty much everywhere on the floor, but especially in the post and at the point. Wright could arguably use another year in school, but he has arguably the biggest upside in the draft outside of Oden and Durant and this young Sixers team can afford to incubate some talent. (NBA comparison: calm and lanky Chris Bosh).

7. Portland Trail Blazers - Joakim Noah, F, Florida (Jr). Think of this as a pick based partly on public relations as well as talent. Noah isn't the best basketball player on the board, but he's selfless, he's hard-working, he's experienced, he's clutch and even though he seems like a douche, he also seems like a good kid who won't cause any problems. Basically he's the kind of guy who wouldn't take the time during his bereavement leave to visit a strip club. (NBA comparison: Anderson Varejao mixed with Tyson Chandler and beaten with an ugly stick).

8. Seattle Supersonics - Julian Wright, F, Kansas (So). Ideally, the Sonics would love for Green or Brewer to slip to them in this spot. Barring that, they could easily take a flier on Wright, who will potentially fill in for the departing Rashard Lewis. Wright needs another year of school after disappearing in the tournament, but the Sonics might as well draft another project after wasting last year's pick on Saer Sene. (NBA comparison: well... Rashard Lewis).

9. Sacramento Kings - Yi Jianlian, F/C, China. I'm not going to pretend to know anything about this guy. If the Kings have balls, they'll draft Mike Conley to light a fire under Mike Bibby's ass (he actually reminds me a little of Bibby when he came out of school). But that's doubtful. (NBA comparison: um. Yao Ming?).

10. Minnesota Timberwolves - Spencer Hawes, C, Washington (Fr). Keep in mind Kevin McHale still runs the T-Wolves and he's still an idiot. Hawes was a bit underwhelming this year, failing to lead Washington to the NCAA Tournament. But he's big and somewhat skilled so some moron GM will fall for him. (NBA comparison: pick a white center, any white center. Let's go with Nenad Krstic and call it a day).

11. Chicago Bulls (from New York) - Mike Conley, G, Ohio State (Fr). The Bulls could really use a big man in this spot, but with all the top post prospects taken ahead of them, they'll potentially be smart enough to grab Conley when they have the chance. He certainly doesn't fill a need on the team, but the Bulls have been good lately at trading spare parts when they need to. (NBA comparison: a more explosive Mike Bibby).

12. Atlanta Hawks (from Indiana) - Acie Law, G, Texas A&M (Sr). Could picking a little lower than usual mean the Hawks don't royally fuck up their pick for once? It's pretty likely picking 12th that either Conley, Law or Ty Lawson will be available at this point, and the PG-deprived Hawks could use any of those players. (NBA comparison: Chauncey Billups).

13. Detroit Pistons (from Orlando) - Al Thornton, F, Florida State (Sr). Thornton is being derived as a "tweener" but he can instantly come off the bench and contribute scoring and defensive intensity for the Pistons. (NBA comparison: Andre Iguodala).

14. New Orleans Hornets - Nick Young, G/F, USC (Jr). With Paul running the floor, the Hornets need to get more athletic on the wing and Young will be an instant boost with his polished mid-range game. Hopefully Peja Stojakovic doesn't injure his fingers calling Young to welcome him to the team. (NBA comparison: Caron Butler).

15. New Jersey Nets - Tiago Splitter, F, Spain. The Nets have had success with one foreigner inside (Krstic, when he's healthy) so don't be surprised if they take a chance on another one, who's supposedly NBA ready mentally and physically, especially defending and rebounding. (NBA comparison: a soft Chris Wilcox).

16. Golden State Warriors - Josh McRoberts, F, Duke (So). Donnie Nelson loves the big guys who can get up-and-down the floor and McRoberts is one of those guys. Unfortunately he doesn't bring much else to the table. But he's above average athletically and somebody is going to fall for his "upside." (NBA comparison: Charlie Villanueva).

17. Los Angeles Clippers - Ty Lawson, G, North Carolina (Fr). I probably shouldn't deliberate on this one much, because it would be the steal of the draft and it isn't terribly likely to happen. The only knock on Lawson is his lack of size. The Clippers need a PG in the worst way. (NBA comparison: Baron Davis).

18. Philadelphia 76ers (from Denver) - Darren Collison, G, UCLA (So). Another potential steal for the Sixers. Similar to Lawson, the only knock on Collison is his small stature, but he's blossomed into a terrific pure PG. Could use another year in school to develop his scoring. (NBA comparison: Andre Miller).

19. Los Angeles Lakers - Chase Budinger, G, Arizona (Fr). A young slasher who can light up the scoreboard off the bench subbing in for Kobe. Another guy who could use another year in school to develop his overall game and earn lottery money in '08, but will probably declare like an idiot anyway. (NBA comparison: J.R. Smith).

20. Washington Wizards - Hasheem Thabeet, C, Connecticut (Fr). Considered a top prospect coming into the year, hasn't done much to maintain that status. Could shoot up the draft with some solid workouts, but the Wizards would love to have the raw project fall to them here. (NBA comparison: Marcus Camby).

21. Miami Heat - Thaddeus Young, F, Georgia Tech (Fr). The Heat can afford to stick with the best player on the board, in this case that's the young project from Tech. His athleticism is off the charts but he hasn't developed much of a game yet. (NBA comparison: low rent Shawn Marion).

22. Charlotte Bobcats (from Toronto) - Ante Tomic, C, Croatia. After taking the NBA ready Green with their first pick, the Bobcats can afford to take a waiver on this second pick. Tomic is your typical European big man, he'll need a couple years before coming to the NBA to underachieve and plod around. (NBA comparison: pick a failed European big man. Shouldn't be tough).

23. New York Knicks (from Chicago) - Rodney Stuckey, G, Eastern Washington (So). Oh, Isaiah, how you continue to entertain us with your personnel decisions. Actually, Thomas has done a decent job of drafting for the Knicks so for once let's pretend he over-reaches for an oversized PG who scores a lot. (NBA comparison: all the score-first combo guards the Knicks have wasted time on the last few years. Or Ben Gordon, I guess).

24. Phoenix Suns (from Cleveland) - Marc Gasol, C, Spain. The unfairness continues as the Suns take their second pick of the first round. They can obviously afford a project, and Pau Gasol's little brother might be worth taking a chance. (NBA comparison: imagine Pau Gasol, if he was less talented, less bearded, younger and named Marc).

25. Houston Rockets - Derrick Byars, G/F, Vanderbilt (Sr). Byars played himself into the first round with a terrific NCAA Tournament performance to follow up his SEC POY title. (NBA comparison: Stephen Jackson. In a good way).

26. Detroit Pistons - Nicolas Batum, G, France. Like the Suns, the Pistons have a glut of first round picks and can afford to take some foreigner. (NBA comparison: Michael Finley, only wearing a beret and chewing on a baguette with a cigarette languidly resting between the middle and index fingers of his right hand).

27. Utah Jazz - Arron Afflalo, G, UCLA (Jr). Afflalo really needs to get back to school after another rough Final 4 appearance. But if he enters the draft, he'd be a good fit for the Jazz, who need to develop an athletic wingman that can defend. Could also go with Alando Tucker here. (NBA comparison: Raja Bell).

28. San Antonio Spurs - Glen Davis, F, LSU (Jr). "Big Baby" fell off the radar as LSU struggled in the SEC this season. He's undersized, but he's smart and strong and could fill in nicely off the bench for Duncan. (NBA comparison: Sean May).

29. Phoenix Suns - Marcus Williams, G, Arizona (So). A perfect fit on the Suns, an oversized guard who can move without the ball and hit open jumpers, and relies on his athleticism on defense. Will thrive on the floor with Nash. (NBA comparison: Quentin Richardson).

30. Philadelphia 76ers (from Dallas) - Tyler Hansbrough, F, North Carolina (So). Hansbrough actually saw his stock drop after staying in school, but another year really would help. He lacks NBA athleticism but might be able to make up for it with his work ethic. (NBA comparison: Udonis Haslem)

Sucks to Be Rutgers

2007-04-04T10:16:00.000-05:00

I don't know much about women's college basketball (I know who Pat Summitt is, I know that lesbian coach got fired from LSU, I know Tennessee, Connecticut and Duke seem to always win the title and I know the Vols just beat Rutgers 59-46 to win this year's title. If I learned anything new, it would probably push one of those old pieces of information out).

I also don't know much about Rutgers athletics.

But I just learned that Rutgers University athletics, the athletic program that is credited as inventing modern college football, has won an NCAA title once in any sport in its history. That was a fencing title. In 1949. And they shared the title. With Army.

The school no longer participates in collegiate fencing. They do, however, currently participate in football, baseball, basketball, field hockey, golf, gymnastics, lacrosse, soccer, softball, tennis, track and field, swimming, wrestling, volleyball, and that sport from that movie with Arnold and the guy from Family Feud.

Ok, I made that last one up.

But you get the point. All those sports and only one title ever. Sucks to be Rutgers.

Maybe it's because of the nickname. Scarlet Knights? What do you think of when you think of scarlet? Scarlet Letter, Scarlet fever, Scarlet O'Hara. (Also Scarlet Johanssen, but that's just distracting). Doesn't really instill much fear, does it?

So as a public service to Rutgers, and any other university with a "faggy" (as Billy Packer would put it) nickname and mascot, we offer the following potential nicknames to anyone looking to really engender dread in their future opponents:

Cutthroats
Rebels Without a Cause
Rock Eaters
Hell's Angels
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles
Drunken Pacman Joneses
Killer Klowns From Outer Space
Penguin Rapers
Chompin' T. Rexes
Jerry Porter's Dogs
Satan's Army
Horny Walruses
Midget Tossers
Killer Shark Attack
Manson Family
Wife Beaters
Coked-up Grizzly Bears
Friends of John Amaechi (note: only works if your opponent is Tim Hardaway)
Ghost Pirates
Wildpumajaguarcougarbobcats
Dirty Sanchezes
Cincinnati Bengals
Totally Fucking Badass Motherfuckers
Michael Jackson's Predators

Dwyane Wade's Punk Rock Journey

2007-04-03T12:29:00.000-05:00

Here's the thing about Dwyane Wade. He's not punk rock. He's also not not punk rock.

This concept may or may not make sense. But we'll get back to that in a minute.

Wade returned to practice yesterday for the first time since dislocating his shoulder about six weeks ago, and is expected to return to game action before the regular season ends on April 18th.

As Mark Twain would likely remark if he were alive today, "The reports of the Heat's demise were greatly exaggerated." And he would probably add: "Someone please deliberate to me posthaste the origin of this blinking box containing movable type! Com-poo-ter? What in the sam hill?" Or something like that.

This could be the last chance for this ever-so-short Heat dynasty, as Shaq is not nearly the force he used to be, the supporting cast needs to be reloaded and Pat Riley may soon be giving way to Billy "Dunn-a-von" as head coach and GM. Who in the East can stop a healthy Wade and Shaq? Probably not the Pistons, Bulls or Cavs, that's for sure. In other words, try not to sprain your ankle hopping back on the Heat championship bandwagon.

But.

To further the point about Dwyane Wade not being punk rock. He's also not not punk rock. Wade is somewhere in the middle, a pure spirit probably influenced by his abundance of casual time spent with Shaquille O'Neal. (Shaq is decidedly punk rock. About 96% punk rock. Giving yourself nicknames is not punk rock, and yet Shaq somehow pulls it off. He's just that unmistakably punk rock).

The NBA culture is funny these days. In the minds of much of society, the stars of the NBA are a personification for the frightening ne'er-do-well underground culture of hip-hop America. Yet most major NBA stars are either prudent Madison Avenue brokers (Lebron James, Kevin Garnett), eccentric goof-balls (Gilbert Arenas, Dwight Howard... some call this class of players punk rock, but it's in that sporadic sense, like when people call Sonic Youth a punk band), really tall dorks (Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki), posers (Carmelo Anthony, Vince Carter) or negligibly batshit insane sociopaths (Ron Artest, Zach Randolph).

These are not the kids you thought were cool in high school.

Imagine if a Martian came down to Earth and asked you to summarize Kobe Bryant in two sentences or less. Could you do it without using the terms "calculated" and/or "insecure"? I'd be willing to bet Gilbert Arenas ten bucks you can't.

It's been like this in the NBA ever since the early 80's when Magic and Bird "revived" the fledging league. Basketball was without a doubt punk rock in the 70's, dominated by eccentric badasses like Julius Erving, Willis Reed, Earl "The Pearl" Monroe, Bill Walton and Artis Gilmore. But off-court discretions and on-court masturbational (sic?) play detached much of America. Nowadays, if pro football is rock-and-roll (you can say you don't love it, but saying you hate it means you hate America) and pro baseball is pop music (beloved by all, to different extents, whether you want to admit it or not), then pro basketball is jazz music, the semi-marginal sport everyone can respect but a select few obsess over.

But the athletes themselves inherit a certain level of disdain, no matter how immaculate and non-punk rock their actual persona may be. Lebron James' recent "shoe controversy" just alludes to his spiritual inheritance of the Michael Jordan propensity to sacrifice individuality for corporate image. This isn't necessarily a bad thing or even really a judgment on Lebron's character as a person. But it does mean he's not punk rock.

There are very few NBA stars in the last quarter century who are or were truly punk rock, most notable among them: Charles Barkley, Allen Iverson, Shaquille O'Neal, Charles Oakley, Xavier McDaniel and Dennis Rodman. They did things the way they felt like doing things and that's an admirable quality in an otherwise contrived society.

Which brings us back to Dwyane Wade.

Dwyane Wade does several commercials. But Dwyane Wade does those commercials with a sense of caustic detachment, as if to tell the consumer "Yep, I'm schilling myself for this product, but I actually use it, and I couldn't care less if you do now too just because I suggested you should."

Dwyane Wade also comes off as something of a dork. In a genuine way.

If Wade leads the Heat to the title again this year with his injured shoulder (and by all means, he probably should have had surgery performed on it by now); and if Wade performs this task with the same disengagement he affords to his commercial acting; then Dwyane Wade could possibly be punk rock.

The jury's out, as they say.

Handicapping the NCAA Title Game

2007-04-02T14:49:00.000-05:00

It's been a strange tournament to handicap so far, with favorites winning and covering at an incredible clip.

The public went 50/50 on Saturday with Florida covering, but Georgetown coming up short. With the large amount of money pouring into Vegas on Florida -4.5, it seems like very few people are giving Ohio State much of a chance to win this thing. Most of the major national media outlets and talking heads are picking the Gators to win.

Which does seem suspiciously like the direct inverse of the BCS Championship game in January.

I made a lot of money on Florida on that fateful day, but I'm not nearly as confident with Ohio State in this contest. That being said, I'll be taking a small chance on the Ohio State +200 money line. Win or lose, it was a rough college basketball season, capped by a rough March Madness and it's time to start concentrating again on NBA betting.

There's not much to lose in making this bet. If Ohio State doesn't win, they weren't supposed to win anyway, and I just lose a little bit of money. If Ohio State does win, I don't win much, but at least I get to run around saying "I told you so."

Also, as evidenced by the above picture, Joakim Noah looks like a 7-foot tranny. Precisely the kind of person I feel it's my duty as an American to bet against. This is our country.

Broken Tackle's Weekend Wrap-up

2007-04-02T08:49:00.000-05:00

Is Ohio State vs. Florida the new Rosie O'Donnell vs. Donald Trump? No matter who's right, nobody wins...

1) Don't get me wrong, I love this newfound cavalier attitude of staying in school. Thanks to the new NBA age-limit and the Florida players sticking it out another year and possibly winning back-to-back titles, it seems like everyone is caught up in collegiate spirit these days. But let's not fool ourselves. Kevin Durant is not staying at Texas. Greg Oden is not registering for History of Rock & Roll II: (The Sammy Hagar Era). Despite disappointing tournament finishes, don't expect to see Arron Afflalo, Jeff Green, Roy Hibbert, Brandan Wright, Julian Wright and Thaddeus Young in collegiate uniforms next year.

Every year we like to get ourselves caught up in a frenzy of college players potentially spurring the bright lights of the NBA lifestyle for another year of amateur ball. This is because we're all a bunch of self-involved, self-righteous idiots. How many columnists have already written their own opinion on why Kevin Durant or Greg Oden should stay in school, pretending like they know what's best for these kids to do? Nobody cares about the futures of these players, and there's nothing wrong with that, because they're going to be fine anyway, barring some unforeseen career ending injury. (That's one argument people like to always make for why kids should leave school for the NBA earlier, but honestly, how many of these guys are sure things in the NBA but have their career stopped before it can start by a major injury? Jay Williams is the only one that comes to mind in my entire generation. Maybe arguably Bobby Hurley, but he never would've been an All-Star caliber player anyway).

All we care about is seeing competitive college basketball. We also care about acting like we know what's best for a bunch of kids. We don't.

2) Michael Phelps is busy re-writing the record books in Australia right now, and a lot of people are probably going to argue that we as a society should care more than we do. I actually agree to some extent on this one. First of all, I'm not sure why ESPN wouldn't have at least some tape-delayed coverage of the World Swimming Championships? It's a fringe sport at best, but the Olympic coverage of it is always intriguing, and it sure beats watching two more hours of World Poker Tour repeats or, god help us, figure skating.

It's interesting that the three greatest athletes in the world right now play in three somewhat marginal, individual sports: Tiger Woods, Roger Federer, Michael Phelps. Woods and Federer get four chances a year to thrust their name into the conscious lexicon of American sports culture. Phelps will probably get one more chance in his lifetime: the 2008 Olympics, where he's expected to compete for an unprecedented eight gold medals.

You'd be hard pressed to find another athlete right now who's up there with Phelps, Tiger and Federer. They're the Gretzky, Montana and Jordan of this generation, the guys who are redefining their sport. Lebron and Wade? Maybe someday, but definitely not yet. Brady and Manning? You could argue for them, but they're still awhiles away. Barry Bonds? Eh, doesn't really count if everybody hates your guts.

3) Quick review of Blades of Glory: some really funny scenes as you'd expect with Will Ferrell, but doesn't have the nuances of his previous films. Figure skating and the Winter Olympics in general are extremely ripe for parody and they nail a lot of the jokes (the ridiculous apparel on and off the ice, the goofy mascots and pageantry, the over-anxious announcing). Jon Heder has his moments, but his character gets grating by the midway point of the film; and he doesn't play off of Ferrell nearly as well as previous co-stars like Vince Vaughn/Luke Wilson in Old School, Christina Applegate in Anchorman and John C. Reilly in Talladega Nights. Will Arnett and Amy Poehler could've been the best part of the movie as the rival figure skaters, but don't get as much screen time or funny send-ups as they deserve. As for Jenna Fischer: I think I'm in love.

Atlanta Falcons Draft Day Trade Prediction

2007-03-30T16:06:00.000-05:00

Bobby Petrino understands that his success in the NFL will determined by his ability to improve the play of Michael Vick. In order to do everything in their power to make Vick a player worthy of the highest salary in the league (which he's currently getting) they need to surround him with pass catchers who can get open, catch the ball consistently, and make plays downfield. They started off this offseason by bringing in a veteran receiver to show the young guys how to get it done in the NFL (and how to use inanimate objects in a touchdown celebration) by signing Joe Horn in free agency. Then the trade with the Texans moved them even closer to making my predicted draft day trade. By moving Matt Schaub to the Texans, the Falcons not only showed Vick that they have confidence in him and are going to stick with him through thick and thin, but they also received the draft picks they need to move up in the draft and really make a splash.

Calvin Johnson is arguably the best prospect in the entire draft. He's a definite top 5 pick and a guy that can impact a team's offense from the moment he gets in to town. Johnson is a 6'5", 139 lbs wide receiver who grew up in Georgia. He's a two time All-American who won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's best receiver this past year. In 38 games at GT, Johnson posted 2,927 yards and 28 TDs on 178 receptions. He did all this while catching passes from a quarterback who is a better runner than he is a passer (sound like Vick?). At the combine he ran the 40 in 4.35 seconds wearing someone else's shoes. Not only can he make plays in the passing game, but he's also a very good blocker in the run game considering his position. His former coaches have raved about his perfect off-field behavior and incredible work ethic. If there is such a thing as a can't miss prospect in the crap shoot that is the NFL draft, this guy is it.

In order for Atlanta to draft this home-grown talent, they're definitely going to have to move up. While there is a chance that Al Davis could make him the #1 overall selection, it looks like JaMarcus Russell is going to go at the top spot. Therefore, the Falcons can target the Lions for the #2 pick and ensure they get Johnson. The Lions have been a terrible team during Matt Millen's tenure. There's really no debating that. He needs to make a move in this draft in order to get more picks to upgrade the overall roster and not just one position. After getting Greg Foster and Tatum Bell from Denver for Dre Bly, it isn't necessary for them to take Joe Thomas or Adrian Peterson at the #2 spot. A quarterback would be a nice addition to the team, but Millen needs to win now, so if he picks for the future he probably won't be around to reap any of the rewards. Also, the Lions run Mike Martz's complicated offense which won't be easy for a rookie to pick up right away. Jon Kitna put up decent numbers last year and I think they'll stick it out with him in '07.

Here's what the Falcons need to give up in order to complete this trade:
Their 1st round pick, number 8 overall which they received from the Texans which is worth 1,400 points according to the Trade Value Chart.
Their 7th pick in the 2nd round, which is worth 510 points.
The 2008 2nd rounder which they received from the Texans (I'm guessing that Houston will get the 10th pick next year for sake of making this easier to explain) which equals 480 points.
This year's 11th pick in the 3rd round which equals 215 points.
The 12th pick in the 5th round which is 36 points.
This gives a total value of 2,641 points.

In return the Lions have to give up the following:
The #2 overall selection which equals 2,600 points.
Their 17th pick in the 5th round which equals 33.5 points.
This is a total of 2,633.5 points.

This should be a close enough value to make the trade work for both teams. Then the Falcons can make their pick of Calvin Johnson and the Lions will gain 3 extra first-day picks this year and one next year. Then they'll still be able to help out their team this year with the #8 pick by turning it into a player like LT Levi Brown, S Laron Landry, DE Jammal Anderson, CB Leon Hall (to replace Dre Bly), or WR Dwayne Jarrett (just because Jarrett plays WR and this is Matt Millen we're talking about).

Now that I spent all this time explaining why it will happen, let me now explain why it won't: It makes too much sense.

To see the Trade Value Chart I used, check out: http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/valuechart.html

9 Reasons to Be Excited for Baseball Opening Day

2007-03-30T14:09:00.000-05:00

Because eight reasons would be too sparse, and ten would be too excessive and well-rounded...

1) Carl Pavano is the Yankees' opening day starter. That's right folks, a $200 million payroll and their opening day starter has a career record of 61-64 with an ERA of 4.27 and hasn't pitched since June of 2005. Everybody point and laugh while you have the chance.

2) The arms of the Detroit Tigers pitchers might just collectively fall off. We've seen this trend the past few years without fail. Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke have never been the same since the '04 playoffs. The White Sox pitching staff as a whole last year looked about as energetic as John Kruk after a twelve-pack and three extra value menus. Kenny Rogers has already been shut down for half the year. Look for Tigers' young arms to struggle as well. Also keep an eye on the Cardinals' former "ace" Jeff Weaver being an utter failure in Seattle.

3) If you have Direct TV you can watch every game. If you don't, then Bud Selig says to go fuck yourself. (And go fuck your grandma while you're at it).

4) Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies fans have reason to hope their teams will reach the playoffs this year. And there's nothing funnier than watching Cubs and Philly fans being put on suicide watch by mid-June when their team inevitably fails.

5) Johan Santana is the balls. He's pitching better than anyone since Pedro circa '99. And his window of legendary opportunity is closing shut.

6) The trading deadline will fill us all with false hope for a blockbuster. And then shatter our anticipation once again, when we remember there's nothing in the sports world more overhyped in the internet age than the trading deadline (except arguably, drafts). Just so you know: Andruw Jones, Ichiro, Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Zambrano will be amongst the names ballied about as trade bait this year.

7) The AL Central and NL Central are wide open. The AL Central because so many teams have so much talent (Santana, Morneau, Mauer, Sabathia, Hafner, Sizemore, Zumaya, Sheffield, Konerko, Dye) and NL Central because so many teams completely lack talent.

8) MLB and Bud Selig have to face the Barry Bonds issue. No matter what your opinion of Barry Bonds (hatred level, utter hatred level, homicidal hatred level, member-of-the-media level), he's going to break Hank Aaron's record this year, and it's going to be hilarious. It's going to be hilarious because Bud Selig and the other MLB brass will have to acknowledge it while at the same time trying to keep their distance from it.

9) Because. No Olympics this summer. No World Cup either. What the fuck else are you going to do in between the NBA Finals and the NFL preseason?

Handicapping the Final 4

2007-03-30T09:15:00.000-05:00

Pretend for a moment that the degenerate act of sports gambling hasn't been curtailed in a mafioso attempt by the United States government to make sure everyone's paying their taxes on gambling victories and participating in the forms of gambling they can track and/or fix (whoops, did I say fix? I meant, um... influence?).

(Come to think of it, gambling is wrong and immoral and I'm glad this Christian society doesn't stand for it in any form).

But, you know, pretend for a moment this isn't the case.

Sports bettors would be freaking out right now, as they always do on Final 4 eve.

For you see, my degenerate friends, as a victim of circumstance, the Final 4 is year-in-and-year-out one of the most gambled-upon events of the sporting calendar. This is because outside of maybe the NBA Finals, it's the final gambling "event" of what we can refer to as the sports "season" until college football kicks off again in late August. Lots of people are going to try and make some summer vacation money this Saturday and Monday before taking a four-month hiatus from sports wagering (assuming of course, that sports wagering, especially wagering on college sports, was still legal).

So if I know this, and if you (possibly now by extension) know this then, of course, Vegas knows this and wants to take advantage of it.

The public money has been flowing in on the two favorites, Georgetown and Florida (no surprise) and the two Overs (even less surprise).

All four teams have been broken down and analyzed in every way imaginable. If you want to look at a statistical matrix that exists, this will be the 7th and 8th meetings in the Final 4 semifinals of a 1-seed vs. a 2-seed. In five of the previous six meetings, the team that gets a higher percentage of their points from their front-court has won. This gives the slight edge to Georgetown (63.7%) over Ohio State (61.3%) and a significant edge to Florida (60.8%) over UCLA (53.4%).

The only team with a front-court disadvantage that pulled off the victory was Duke in '91, when they upset UNLV. Pat Forde has made an astute argument comparing this year's UCLA team to that Duke team who had been embarrassed by UNLV in the '90 title game.

Then again, Pat Forde is a smug little leprechaun.

But then again, UCLA is an inspired pick, and appears to be a sharp pick. Florida seems to present the same match-up problems that Kansas presented, and the Bruins weathered the Jayhawks just fine.

My picks for Saturday:

Georgetown -1 (high confidence)
UCLA +3 (medium confidence)
Florida/UCLA Under 130.5 (medium confidence)
Georgetown/Ohio State Under 129.5 (low confidence)

Why I Love Sports

2007-03-29T09:36:00.000-05:00

Or at least my best attempt to write down in words why I love sports. Describing a feeling, especially one as strong as love or hate is something very difficult to describe, especially for an amateur like myself. Describing why you feel this strongly is probably even more difficult to describe. Who really knows why I feel a certain way about something that others couldn't possibly care less about. Especially something as trivial as a game, a game that really won't affect my life in a positive or negative way no matter what the outcome is.

The thing that truly captures my interest is the ability to watch another person performing at a level that no other human being will ever be able to experience. Despite the fact that every professional athlete is actually very good at their profession, my interest lies in the truly great ones. Michael Jordan, Jim Brown, Wilt Chamberlain, Wayne Gretzky, Tiger Woods, Roger Federer, Babe Ruth, etc.

These very few athletes are the reason I watch games. They're the reason I watch college sports and wait to see the next person do something at a level that I've never seen before. Michael Jordan could do anything he wanted on the basketball court and no one on the opposing team could do anything to stop him. Babe Ruth could drink a keg of beer, eat a dozen hot dogs and then go out and call his shot over the right field wall. Roger Federer can return a tennis ball traveling 100 mph from in-between his legs. There are other incredible athletes, but they'll never be as truly dominant as the true greats.

These types of people aren't only athletes. I'm sure there are surgeons who can operate better than anyone else who's ever picked up a scalpel. I'm sure there are salesmen who can perform at a level that no other salesmen will ever see. That's because the greats get to set the new standard. The greats elevate their field higher than it's ever been before and that's what makes them great. When I was learning to sell at my first job I was told to watch what good salespeople do and mimick them. The greats excel a different way. They have no one to mimick because no one can perform as highly as they can and they know that.

It's one thing to try to act great, but it's another thing to truly know that you will succeed where others have failed and are able to do things that no one else has ever accomplished before. My desire to feel that way for one moment is why I love sports as much as I do.

Imagine looking at a golf course the way Tiger Woods does and to simply know that you're going to sink a putt. I strive to reach that level of confidence. I have a ton of faith in myself and my abilities, but that feeling of invicibility must be incredible. Watching a select few go through this is what draws my attention. Seeing someone else achieve greatness is what pushes me to be better at what I do. Maybe I'll never be able to experience that feeling, but striving to is what keeps me going.

The Clevelander (No, not the sandwich)

2007-03-28T13:15:00.000-05:00

Lots of things to be excited about as a Cleveland sports fan. The Cavaliers currently hold the #2 seed in the East playoffs, the Indians' season is about to start, the Buckeyes made the Final Four, and the Browns are still in town.

As long as Lebron James is wearing #23 for the Cavs, simply clinching a playoff spot should be expected. Unless Kevin McHale takes over as GM, Cleveland fans should enjoy the excitement of the NBA playoffs for years to come. Ever since Larry Hughes took over at the point guard position and Sasha Pavlovic decided to play defense and earn more playing time, this team has been playing like a true contender. However, this team still has room for improvement. They still need to show more consistency. They seem to fall into a rut during games where everyone stands around and waits for someone to shoot a jump shot. This isn't going to get it done against the Pistons, Bulls, or Heat. If the playoffs started today the Cavs would host the Orlando Magic in the first round of the playoffs. Despite having Dwight Howard this team has free fallen over the last few months. If the Cavs allow the Bulls to catch them, they'll drop from the #2 seed all the way to #5. At number 5, they'd lose their home court advantage and (as of today) face the Toronto Raptors. The Cavs would still be favored to win, but Toronto is a better team than Orlando and I'd rather see the games being played at the 'Q' instead of in Canada. With only a game and a half separating the Cavs and Bulls, the end of the season will be exciting. Lebron has already begun picking up his game, hopefully his teammates are able to improve theirs as well.

Next door to the Q the Indians' season is about to get started and the team has some promise this year. The bullpen was a big problem for the team last year and was improved this offseason by picking up Joe Borowski from the Cubs and journeyman Roberto Hernandez. We also get to see Andy Marte and Josh Barfield move into starting roles in the infield for the team and there are high expectations for both. Once Cliff Lee comes back from his injury the starting lineup will be strong with Cliff, C.C. Sabathia, and Jake Westbrook at the top of the rotation. Enjoy C.C. while you still can, his contract with the Tribe is up after 2008 and it'll be very expensive to sign him. He's a young, huge, lefty with a power arm. Those guys usually price themselves out of the Indian's budget when they hit the open market. This is a team that has the talent to battle for a playoff spot in a suddenly very good Central Division. These obviously aren't the same Sox, Twins, and Tigers from the days when the Indians dominated the division year after year.

Another local team with postseason success is the Buckeyes. They'll be facing Georgetown in the Final Four after surviving several excruciatingly close games. Greg Oden will be the centerpiece of a team that has really matured throughout the tournament. He'll be facing Roy Hibbert in one of the best matchups of March so far. Mike Conley, Jr. has been extremely impressive. He was almost an after-thought before the season when he came to Ohio with Oden. Point guard play is extremely important, especially in the tournament. Conley was extremely clutch in the overtime win over Xavier and has only grown from there. He can penetrate, distribute, and shoot the ball like an upper classman. After Oden, Mike Conley will play a huge part if the team is able to beat the Hoyas. I'd personally love to see a rematch with Florida after the embarrassment they laid on OSU at the National Championship game. A win for the NCAA title would be sweet revenge.

That was the good news. Now for the Cleveland Browns. If one of the other Cleveland teams were losing this consistently they'd be almost forgotten. However, this is the Browns. Cleveland lives and dies by this team and right now fans are showing that you can die more than once. First lets go over the holes this team has. Despite bringing Eric Steinbach and Seth McKinney aboard, the offensive line still could use an upgrade. Kellen Winslow just had microfracture surgery which is a very risky operation. The running backs are a past-his-prime Jamal Lewis and a handful of nobodies. Neither Charlie Frye nor Derek Anderson are starting caliber quarterbacks. The defensive line added Shaun Smith and Robaire Smith, but the defensive line is still very weak. The secondary lost Brian Russell and Gary Baxter can't seem to stay healthy. The linebacker core may be the best group on the team with Andra Davis, D'Qwell Jackson, Leon Williams, Kamerion Wimbley, Willie McGinest, and Antwan Peek. This is a huge draft for the Browns. Hopefully they won't be picking in the top 3 again for a long time. There are rumors that they could trade up for Jamarcus Russell or Brady Quinn, or stand pat for Adrian Peterson or Joe Thomas. Whatever they decide to do they'd better make a good decision. This town can't handle anymore miserable high picks like they did in the past. This offseason could either be the turning point or the starting over (again) point for this team.

With all of the excitement over the local teams right now, I almost forgot to mention the biggest event to hit Cleveland in years. The women's NCAA Final Four is in town!! Let's kick out the Cavs for a five game road trip while they're in the middle of a playoff chase so some miserable basketball can be played at Quicken Loans Arena. Does anyone other than the players' families watch these games in person? While accidentally putting one of these games on my t.v. while waiting for Sports Center to come on, I couldn't help but notice that the arenas are basically empty except for a few rows of seats at mid-court on either side. The sides of the arenas behind the hoops are totally empty. Why play these games in an NBA arena when a small high school gym would be perfectly suitable? If Dallas Lauderdale, 3 of my friends, and I can beat the national champion, why would I spend the time to watch?

Washington D.C. Sports Report

2007-03-28T09:24:00.000-05:00

Things haven't started off too smoothly for the new ownership group of the Washington Nationals. Ticket sales are slowed down in general, including season ticket sales, and many season ticket holders are complaining about slow deliveries of their ticket packages (some are even concerned they won't get their tickets before opening day). Team President Stan Kasten has said he's determined to have the final season opener at RFK be a sell-out, but it looks like it won't even be close.

It's no secret that RFK sucks and this Nats team sucks even worse. Could anyone outside the D.C. area name five guys on this team? Could anyone in the D.C. area name five guys on this team? It's not an easy sell for these guys, trying to pass off a team rebuilding on a city that has no choice but to feel like a bandwagon fan (these things happen when a team is dumped on you after 35 years without baseball in your city). 2007 has the obvious feel of a placeholder year for the Nats before moving into their new stadium in 2008 and maybe then building a respectable team.

Last night, Sidney Crosby and the Penguins symbolically skated into town and put a fitting epitaph on the '06/'07 season for the Washington Capitals, with a 4-2 win. In the 8th battle between the potential Bird-and-Magic of the NHL, Crosby came up with a memorable behind-the-net goal in the 2nd period, and added an assist to increase his NHL scoring lead. Alex Ovechkin, meanwhile, came up with an early assist but was otherwise held in check, further frustrated by the lackadaisical efforts of his teammates.

There's no question the Penguins are doing a much better job building around Crosby than the Capitals are doing building around Ovechkin. With the win, the Pens clinched their first playoff berth since 2001. Washington, meanwhile, is mired with the second worst record in the Eastern Conference and will miss the playoffs for the third straight season. Similar to Lebron in Cleveland or Johan Santana in Minnesota, fans have to wonder how long Ovechkin will be willing to put up with subpar teammates, subpar coaching and subpar ownership/general management.

By the way, in eight meetings since they both joined the league, Crosby's Penguins have beaten Ovechkin's Capitals seven times. Not quite Magic-and-Bird yet.

After losing four out of the five games on their West Coast swing, the Washington Wizards have now fallen behind the surging Miami Heat in the Southeast standings, and have tumbled from the East's 3-seed to the East's 6-seed. They hope to get things back on track tonight with a home game against the Philadelphia 76ers, as the oft-injured Caron Butler is expected to return from a left knee contusion.

Gilbert Arenas played pretty well on the road trip, all things considered, but his blog on nba.com has been suspiciously quiet ever since his "talking to" from the league for making a $10 bet with a Portland fan during the game. Could it be that an athlete's online blog is being compromised by the very company that employs him and hosts his blog on their website? Who would've thunk it.

Unfortunately for the Wizards, they're only the second most beloved basketball team in town right now, as the Georgetown Hoyas prepare for Saturday's Final 4 match-up with Ohio State. The team, coached by John Thompson's son and featuring Patrick Ewing's son off the bench, has tapped back into the college hoops soul of the nation's capitol, similar to Maryland's Final 4 runs in 2001 and 2002.

One statistic Georgetown has going for them: no Big East team has ever lost a national semifinals game against a non-Big East team. Georgetown is the 13th Big East team to reach the Final 4, and 9 of those 13 teams won their semifinal game against teams from another conference. The only time a Big East team has lost in this round of the tournament is when facing another Big East team (Georgetown beat St. John's in '85 and Syracuse beat Providence in '87).

And finally, the Washington Redskins are looking to add yet another overpaid linebacker to the team, as they continue trade talks with the Chicago Bears for the disgruntled Lance Briggs. If the trade goes through, the Redskins will give up their #6 overall draft pick in exchange for the Bears' #31 overall pick. Keep in mind they've already traded away their 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks. It's as if Dan Snyder and Joe Gibbs know they only have a couple years left to live and couldn't care less about the franchise's future. There's probably a good joke in there somewhere, but the reality is enough of a joke.

Broken Tackle's Weekend Wrap-up

2007-03-27T13:56:00.000-05:00

Georgetown is in the Final 4, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles is #1 at the box-office and a Korn MTV Unplugged album is climbing the Billboard charts. What kind of cultural fucking time warp are we stuck in right now?

With that in mind...

1) Billy Donovan is an idiot if he accepts the Kentucky job. This would not be upward mobility, this would be lateral. Yes, his entire starting 5 will be wearing NBA jerseys next year and yes, Gainesville, Florida is a hick town. But why would leave one high-profile job (where they treat you like a god) to start over at an equal but much more stressful and much more scrutinized high-profile job (where they'll treat you like an asshole)?

Why do head coaches do things like this? Is there something inherent in the personality of a head coach that he's always looking ahead to the next job, even if it isn't a better one? They act like the sleazy guy who takes his girlfriend to the bar and checks out every whore in the place, no matter where they stand on the [fugly --> delicious] scale. It doesn't matter if it's better or worse, it just matters if it's different.

2) The story about comedian/actor/race car connoisseur Eddie Griffin is a classic. First of all, the story is accompanied by a photo of Griffin just standing next to the wrecked vehicle with a goofy look on his face, as if this is just a normal happening. No remorse, no shame, just "Oh hey, destroyed a rare Ferrari worth $1.5 million today. Need a snapshot? No problem. Can you get a good look at the wreckage from this angle?"

But even better is the quote from the car's owner, Daniel Sadek.

"I'm glad Eddie came out of the crash OK, but my dream car got destroyed," Sadek said. "I went to my trailer for about 15 minutes and I thought, there's people dying every day. A lot of worse things are happening in the world."

Yeah, dude, I went through the same thing when someone stole my video iPod from the gym a few weeks ago. Somewhere in China, a starving child appreciates your empathy.

Waaaaahhhhh, the black guy from Deuce Bigalow destroyed my Ferrari. Waaaaaaaaahhh!

3) Rasheed Wallace. Not only makes one of the greatest shots I've ever seen in a basketball game. But afterwards, acts like he does it all the time. Jumanji!

Zach Randolph: Livin' the Dream

2007-03-27T10:20:00.000-05:00

Zach Randolph is going to grieve the way Zach Randolph wants to grieve.

How do you mourn the lost of a loved one? You don't sit shivah at a strip club? Well that's your thing. That's not Zach Randolph's thing.

Maybe you always pay your tab after leaving the titty bar. But not Zach Randolph. Zach Randolph knows that the club owner will just hold the tab over for the next time he visits. Zach Randolph doesn't need to be bothered with paying his tabs when he's in mourning.

Zach Randolph also throws some great sex show parties.

If you're a mouthy bitch who doesn't enjoy Zach Randolph's sex party, then you never should have shown up to Zach Randolph's sex party in the first place.

When Zach Randolph is putting it in your ass, then you better just relax and take it in your ass.

Nate McMillan understands Zach Randolph's needs.

"He felt he needed to go," said McMillan. "It's a death in the family ... you get a feel for what you need to do."

What you need to do. Fuckin' A, Nate. Fuckin' A.

Zach Randolph. Livin' the dream.

Ouch... my bracket (The mid-major quandary)

2007-03-26T08:52:00.000-05:00

The Final 4 is set and it's the first Final 4 since 1993 that doesn't include a 3-seed or lower. This is quite a sharp contrast to last season, where for the first time in the modern 64-team era, not a single 1-seed reached the Final 4; and 11-seed Cinderella George Mason was everybody's sentimental favorite.

A lot of people will argue over the next few days whether this is a good thing or a bad thing, whether this means college basketball is progressing forward or progressing backwards. How about progressing sideways?

People like to think of the advent of the "mid-major" powerhouse as a modern construct. But what's really happened is our perception of what makes a mid-major has changed.

You may have heard the stat that only six mid-majors received at-large bids this year, the lowest amount in a long time. And this is true, but don't forget that the Atlantic-10, Mountain West, WAC and Conference USA conferences are included in these statistics (Conference USA was created in 1995 when two previous mid-majors, the Metro and Great Midwest conferences merged).

Look at some of the mid-majors through the years who have reached the Final 4 long before George Mason: Utah in '98, Massachusetts in '96, Cincinnati in '92, UNLV in '87, '90 and '91 and Memphis in '85. Everyone knows Larry Bird took little Indiana State to the title game against Magic Johnson and Michigan State in '79. But did you realize who else made the Final 4 that year? The Pennsylvania Quakers, probably the final Ivy League team who will ever reach the Final 4.

If you want to go back further, the 60's and 70's were littered with mid-major Final 4 teams: Drake, Jacksonville, UNC Charlotte, New Mexico State, Wichita State and Dayton, to name a few.

The eight-year drought for mid-majors between Utah reaching the Final 4 in '98 and George Mason reaching the Final 4 in '06 was the longest such drought for mid-majors in tournament history.

So what happened to the mid-major?

Well, for starters, TV happened, and it made the tournament a big-time event. The NCAA tournament has become one of the most telegenic sporting events year after year, and this means big money. But this big money isn't going to everyone, as you might suspect. This multi-billion dollar TV contract is divided amongst the schools in a manner that systemically creates a level of institutional monetary discrimination against the smaller schools. For starters, half the revenue goes to conferences based on their performance in previous tournaments. So conferences that perform well year after year, like the ACC or Pac-10 get fatter, while the smaller conferences are stuck in a cycle of lower funding.

The irony of this is that the NCAA tournament on TV exploded thanks to Larry Bird and Indiana State. To this day, the 1979 championship game between Indiana State and Michigan State remains the highest rated college basketball game in TV history. It's no coincidence that the 1980 tournament was the first to feature TV broadcasts of the first two rounds of the tournament.

But can we still perceive Indiana State as a mid-major? A Cinderella? The Celtics were allowed to draft Larry Bird 6th overall in the 1978 draft thanks to a rule back then that teams could draft players before their college eligibility was up (imagine if that rule still existed). Can the public really get behind a team as a Cinderella which featured arguably one of the five greatest players in basketball history (albeit arguably the greatest white player in basketball history)?

There's no question we love our underdogs in this country. Rooting for the underdog is a chance to regrasp our historical remnants of beating the odds. We were George Mason in the Revolutionary War and Indiana State in the War of 1812, but only 200 years later we were Duke in Vietnam and Kentucky in Iraq. Everyone knows Americans have it better than the rest of the world in almost every aspect of life, so we affiliate with our underdogs where we can find them, and sports is the underdog's ultimate milieu. We love our Rockys and we love our Miracles on Ice. We love our Glory Roads and we love our Hoosiers (the fact that Glory Road was an underdog story of all-black players taking on the all-white heavy favorites and 20 years later Hoosiers was a completely racially transmuted exposition is probably a section of our mid-major conscience that deserves its own separate writing).

So look back at those mid-majors who reached the Final 4 between Indiana State and George Mason. Though they all technically count, in the eyes of the American sports fan, they were not true underdogs. UNLV had NBA talent in Larry Johnson and Stacey Augmon, not to mention a shady coach and shady dealings with Las Vegas ne'er-do-wells. Cincinnati in '92 had a galling superstar (Nick Van Exel) and an even more galling head coach (Bob Huggins). UMass in '96 was ranked #1 for much of the season and was led by a future NBA star in Marcus Camby. Utah in '98 might have been the closest we've had in this bunch to a Cinderella (and it's probably not a coincidence they were the "whitest" team out of all of them). Most of these teams in retrospect feel less like underdogs and more like big fishes in little ponds, technical mid-majors that were really just waiting for a BCS conference to come along and snatch them away (it actually happened with Cincinnati joining the Big East in 2005).

Turns out we love underdogs, but only up to a point. The NCAA tournament exists as an unique construct, truly the only major sporting event where the so-called little guys get to take their best direct shot at the big boys. But once one of those little guys breaks through and makes it happen, we only want more, and we want it on a bigger and grander scale.

After Indiana State glued everyone to their television sets, the real modern era of the NCAA tournament began. So we sat, and we waited for another mid-major to break through to the Final 4. We saw 14 seeds inexplicably reach the Sweet 16 (Cleveland State in '86 and Chattanooga in '97) and we clamored for more, we clamored for great things. We watched 15 seeds pull off stunning first round upsets and we asked for even bigger and better things.

In the late 90's, thanks to high school players taking an increasing interest in skipping college ball to jump straight to the pros, mid-majors busted back through the gates by reaching the Elite 8. First it was Gonzaga in '99, then Tulsa in '00 and Kent State in '02. Once could say these teams paved the way for George Mason finally breaking through in '06.

And then what were we left with? The final frontiers for mid-major basketball in the tournament were a mid-major in the Final 4 and a 16-seed upsetting a 1-seed. We've now seen one and not quite yet the other. So how are we supposed to be interested in the Winthrops or VCUs of the world reaching only the 2nd round?

Mid-major success in the NCAA tournament is not a modern construct. Similar to teen pregnancy or drug use, it's something that's always been there, and if anything it's on the decline, only now our concept of it has changed. Our perception is different. Some people will always call things an "epidemic" for better or worse. But an epidemic is only created in how you perceive it.

We love our underdogs. We need our underdogs. Next year, we'll probably have another underdog make a run, because college basketball, like anything else in life, is cyclical. And we'll all act surprised because we want to act surprised.

The culture of sports fans is a nation of suckers, in the true P.T. Barnum sense of the word, and when our underdogs no longer satisfy us we will create new ones. And if the new ones come up short we'll construct different ones in our own inspired image.

There is no progressing forward or backwards in this formula. Only different variations of sideways.

Tubby Smith and Duality of Coaching

2007-03-23T12:53:00.000-05:00

Sometimes things just make sense because they make sense.

Listening to the reactions from both sides over Tubby Smith bolting Kentucky for the head coaching job at Minnesota (and I think we all agree he left Kentucky before they had a chance to shit-can him), it's left me with a lingering thought.

Can someone exist as a good coach and a bad coach at the same time?

I'm not talking about some kind of Jungian schizophrenic type of deal.

But maybe duality is a matter of perception. Tubby Smith coached Kentucky to the national title in his first year on the job, 1998, using players previously recruited and coached by Rick Pitino. Their finishes since then: Elite 8, 2nd Round, Sweet 16, Sweet 16, Elite 8, 2nd Round, Elite 8, 2nd Round, 2nd Round. Pitino, in contrast, took over a team with a bare cupboard (they suffered a nine-year drought from the Final 4 before Pitino brought them back in '93, this year marked their second nine-year drought in school history) and within three seasons he had them one miracle Christian Laettner shot away from the Final 4. They would then reach the Final 4 three times in Pitino's final six years as coach, including a national title in '96.

The knock on Smith wasn't his recruiting skills (though, in comparison to Pitino, anyone's recruiting skills probably seem inadequate), but his in-game coaching skills. Pitino is revered as the only coach in NCAA history to take three different schools to the Final 4. Look at his mid-90's Kentucky teams, revered by many as one of the great college teams of the modern era, and you see only one NBA all-star in the mix, Antoine Walker.

So why is Pitino universally mocked by Celtics and Knicks fans while Tubby Smith is still beloved by Tulsa and Georgia fans (two programs that haven't been the same since he left) and has Minnesota fans salivating over their future?

Again, sometimes it's a matter of perception. Sometimes it just makes sense because it just makes sense. The man Rick Pitino replaced at Kentucky was the legendary coach (and legendary alcoholic) Eddie Sutton. Sutton was an utter disastrous failure at Kentucky; he was the only coach never to lead the team to the Final 4 in his tenure, and he vacated the position after damaging the school's reputation with recruiting scandals. Before Sutton was Joe B. Hall, a long-time assistant of Adolph Rupp, who led the Wildcats to the '78 title. Rupp coached the team for four decades, winning four national titles and is best remembered for refusing to recruit black players, only to have his all-white team upstaged by an all-black Texas Western team in the '66 title game. I listened to a recent interview with Billy Packer, where he mentioned the '78 Kentucky team was "the least excited" of any national title team he ever covered.

Think that one through. Billy Packer is claiming your team was not having enough fun, and was not excited enough.

The point being? Kentucky basketball is a tough sell.

Tubby Smith will probably take the Minnesota basketball team back to the NCAA tournament within the next two years. This might not seem like a big deal, but the Gophers have made just two tournament appearances in the decade since Smith took over the Kentucky job. Their fans would kill for a chance to have an "off-year" similar to the typical Kentucky "off-year."

Chances are, Tubby Smith will get too much credit for bringing Minnesota back to prominence. The truth is, Smith is not a solid in-game coach and he often got out-maneuvered by SEC rivals such as Billy Donovan, Bruce Pearl and Kevin Stallings.

Chances are, Tubby Smith won't get enough credit for what he did at Kentucky. The truth is, in modern college basketball, consistent excellence is very difficult for even the most prestigious of programs. Just look at the struggles this year of Duke, Arizona, UConn, Michigan State and Utah.

Somehow, both of those assumptions seem relatively commonsensical and such is the duality of coaching. Existing simultaneously as a good coach and bad coach is a product of environment and it's a product of perception. Smith exists as good and bad because he exists only through a prism of who is interpreting him. There are very few coaches in basketball, be it pro or college, that everyone can agree on is a good or bad coach. Some claim Phil Jackson is a genius, some claim he's the most overrated coach in sports. Some claim Mike Krzyzewski is a terrific leader and floor general, others point to his complete lack of in-game adjustments.

And usually that kind of thing makes sense because it just makes sense.

This Week in Douchebaggery: Coast-to-Coast

2007-03-22T09:10:00.000-05:00

SACRAMENTO -- Ron Artest will be arraigned on Thursday, meaning he'll plead Guilty or Not Guilty to charges of beating the shit out of his wife. Perhaps this distracted him last night as the Kings blew a 7-point 4th Quarter lead and lost at home to the Timberwolves, but he has been playing better since the incident. This is the fifth time now that police have been called out to his Sacramento home due to a "spousal dispute" (who knows how many teams a "spousal dispute" didn't lead to a 9-1-1 call), not to mention the Sacramento police taking away Ron Artest's dog due to negligence.

When asked how he's handling the situation at home, Artest responded "Once the schedule clears up, I'll be able to do things." The "schedule" he's referring to is the Sacramento Kings, battling to make up ground on the Clippers and Warriors for the final playoff spot in the West (or, in other words, they're 3 games back from the opportunity to get swept by the Mavericks).

So what do we know about Ron Artest? He beats his wife. He hates dogs. He's willing to take time off from his professional career to work on producing a rap album, but he's not willing to take time off to try and piece together the shattered remnants of his broken family.

Ron Artest, King of the Douchebags.

TUCSON -- Kerry Wood and Mark Prior will start the season on the DL again. Yes, I know, sorry if you spit out your coffee reading that tidbit.

When was the last time both these guys were healthy? Let's play a little game, was it before or after?:

1) The Red Sox and/or White Sox ended their drought
2) We invaded Iraq the first time
3) We invaded Iraq the second time
4) Tinker, Evers and Chance were the Cubs infield
5) Lincoln was shot
6) Dinosaurs roamed the Earth (trick question if you're Carl Everett)

Cubs fans and management will be in denial, saying that Prior and Wood are merely luxuries at this point on a talented team. But it's time they let go of these douchebags and move on with life.

WEST PALM BEACH -- Tony LaRussa might be a genius at utilizing the double-switch, but he's a moron when it comes to driving buzzed.

LaRussa fell asleep at a stoplight in his SUV, leaving the vehicle in drive, but luckily falling asleep with his foot on the brake. When the cops questioned him, he blew a 0.093 on the breathalizer. 0.093? What a pussy. What is that, like a six-pack of Zima? I know guys who can drink five times that and still be coherent enough to drive home safe and sound. Hell, Billy Martin led the Yankees to the '77 pennant with an average BAC of 0.25 at any point during the season.

Regardless, it's always good to see a self-aggrandizing douchebag like Tony LaRussa get into trouble.

In a related story, Khalif Barnes thinks the KKK slipped something in LaRussa's drink.

Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: North Carolina vs. Southern Cal

2007-03-21T10:39:00.000-05:00

(1) North Carolina -8 vs. (5) Southern Cal (O/U: 149.5)

The final game of the Sweet 16 round features some of the most exciting young talent in the country, as Ty Lawson, Brandan Wright and North Carolina take on Taj Gibson, Nick Young and USC.

Tyler Hansbrough played out of his mind against Michigan State, single-handedly fending off the Spartans at times, and looking much more comfortable without his schnozaroo mask on. But anyone who's followed the Tar Heels the last couple years know Hansbrough can be very streaky and UNC very well might need their other talented youngsters to take this game over. Hansbrough might have his hands full on both ends of the court with USC freshman big man Taj Gibson.

USC had a very interesting year, it started in tragedy with the shooting death of standout Ryan Francis, continued with the surprising and possibly shady recruiting of O.J. Mayo, and the Trojans had one of their best seasons in a long time under Tim Floyd, who is probably just happy to no longer be known primarily as "The Guy stuck with the Bulls after Jordan and Pippen left town" (similar to fellow Trojan faculty member Pete Carroll, happy to shed his image as "The Guy who almost ran the Patriots into the ground between Parcells and Belichick").

The Trojans play some stout defense, similar to their Bruin counterparts in Westwood. They can, however, suffer an occasional lapse, as they did in the Pac-10 title game vs. Oregon. North Carolina isn't nearly as tough on the defensive end, but they'll pressure you and pressure you well with Roy Williams bringing in wave-after-wave of subs to wear down the opposition. They're also an excellent rebounding team, something USC might struggle with.

Battle of the Mascots: Trojans are totally hot right now, with the success of 300. Tar Heels refers simply to inhabitants of the state North Carolina. So, a bunch of ancient warriors with a big wooden horse or a bunch of hillbillies with bare feet and their pet rams. Surprisingly closer than you'd think. Edge: Even

Battle of the Famous Alumni: UNC can claim Peter Gammons, Andy Griffith, Lewis Black, Julius Peppers, Dan "MTV Sports" Cortese and old what's-his-name, the guy who's GM of the Bobcats now. USC has all the typical athletes (Marcus Allen, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Lott), actors (Will Ferrell, Forest Whitaker, Tom Selleck), directors (George Lucas, John Carpenter, Ron Howard), hot chicks that Matt Leinart has probably nailed (Kelly Preston, Lisa Ling, Sophia Bush) and murderers (O.J. Simpson) you'd expect. Also, Neil Armstrong. Dude went to the fuckin' moon. Edge: USC

The play to make: A lot will depend on whether UNC can use their pressure defense to rattle USC and force them into some turnovers. Because if USC can hang around and keep this game close, their defensive prowess will be a serious advantage late in the game, when the Tar Heels might struggle to get stops in the half-court. The 8 points seems like a lot, but if you expect UNC to win, you're expecting them to probably cover the number and vice versa... if you expect USC to cover, you're probably expecting them to win. Play: USC +8 (medium confidence); Under 149.5 (low confidence)

Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: Oregon vs. UNLV

2007-03-21T10:38:00.001-05:00

(3) Oregon -2.5 vs. (7) UNLV (O/U: 140)

No matter who wins, this one should be good. How could you not like a team from Oregon with a pissed-off Donald Duck as their mascot, arguably the ugliest uniforms in the history of mankind, a coach named Ernie and a PG named Aaron Brooks who's actually clutch under pressure and doesn't throw the ball the opposite length of the court. And they're trying to become the first school from Oregon to reach the Final 4 since the Oregon State Beavers in 1963 (I didn't even realize we had discovered Oregon by then. Did everyone on the team have cholera and dysentery or drown trying to "ford" the river to the Final 4?).

Or how could you not enjoy a team from Las Vegas nicknamed the Runnin' Rebels (seriously, has there ever been a bigger "fuck you" to the NCAA than putting a school in Las Vegas and nicknaming it the Rebels?). They're led by one guard named "Wink" and the other guard, Kevin Kruger, son of their legendary head coach Lon Kruger and delivering a serious blow to nepotism everywhere with every big game he's put up for the team. After being shunned by the selection committee (most "bracketologists" had them projected in the 4-to-6 seed range); they took down everyone's least favorite favorite, the boring-as-white-bread Wisconsin to reach the Sweet 16. They're looking for the school's first Final 4 trip since 1991, the heyday of Larry "The Original LJ" Johnson, Stacey Augmon, Jerry Tarkanian and the famous picture of several UNLV players sitting in a hot tub with Richie "The Fixer" Perry (here's a clue as to what Perry did for a living: he didn't "fix" toilets).

Battle of the Mascots: Ol' Reb looks like he's a badass, even when he's participating in activities Tim Hardaway wouldn't approve of. But we have great appreciation for a duck that's wearing a shirt and no pants. Edge: Oregon

Battle of the Famous Alumni: Even the alumni for both these schools are pretty cool. UNLV probably wins in the athlete department (Larry Johnson, Shawn Marion, Ickey Woods and Randall Cunningham... though Oregon does have some football legends (Gary Zimmerman, Dan Fouts and Norm Van Brocklin). The Rebels can also claim Jimmy Kimmel, Suge Knight, Kenny Mayne, one Maloof brother and the drummer for the Killers. Most people know Phil Knight, founder of Nike, attended Oregon. But how are you gonna sleep on the guy who wrote One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (Ken Kesey) and the guy who wrote Fight Club (Chuck Palahniuk). You're not, that's how. Edge: Oregon

The play to make: Oregon hasn't really been challenged, so to speak, in the first two rounds. They had a tough game against Miami (OH) but the outcome was never really in doubt, and they followed it with a cake-walk against Winthrop (this is following double-digit Pac-10 tournament wins over Arizona, Cal and USC) . UNLV, meanwhile, had tough match-ups with Georgia Tech and Wisconsin come down to the final minute (following a tough MWC title win over BYU). Neither team has lost since February 22nd, so something has to give here. UNLV matches up pretty well here, they can run a little bit with Oregon if need be, but would prefer to draw them into a half-court game and limit possessions. Miami and Winthrop did show at times that Oregon can be suckered into playing outside their comfort zone. Play: UNLV +2.5 (medium confidence); Under 140 (medium confidence)

Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: Georgetown vs. Vanderbilt

2007-03-21T10:37:00.000-05:00

(2) Georgetown -7.5 vs. (6) Vanderbilt (O/U: 131)

The Big East champs continue their quest for their first Final 4 trip in 22 years. The Commodores meanwhile, are looking for only their second Elite 8 trip in school history (the first coming in 1965).

These teams met on Vandy's home floor on November 15th, with Georgetown cruising to an 86-70 victory. A lot has changed since then, obviously. Senior PF Derrick Byers is the reigning SEC Player of the Year, and with good reason. The do-it-all transfer from Virginia has led this team on both ends of the court, and came up huge in the 2nd Half come-from-behind victory over Washington State. But the key for Vanderbilt is their outside shooting, if the shots aren't falling they're not a strong enough defensive team to keep themselves hanging in the game. They don't want too much pressure on Byers to carry the entire offense.

Georgetown was a vogue Final 4 pick heading into the tournament and with good reason. Their back-court really came together late in the year, and that's when the team gelled. The match-ups of the guards will be interesting in this game. One major advantage Vanderbilt had over Washington State was the size of their guards disrupting the Cougars' outside shooting. Georgetown is not a team that relies heavily on the outside shot, but they do have two guards who will be undersized in this game. The Jeff Green-Derrick Byers match-up could be a classic. Two players who didn't get quite as much attention but are styled in the Kevin Durant mode, oversized wing players who can do all the big things and little things to help their team win.

Battle of the Mascots: Though their mascot is a goofy looking bulldog, a Hoya is defined as a tropical plant. We're assuming Commodores is referring the naval rank, but in our fantasies Vanderbilt University named itself after the seminal Lionel Richie-fronted 70's soul band famous from bringing us "Brick House." Edge: Vanderbilt

Battle of the Famous Alumni: Unfortunately though, Lionel Richie did not attend Vanderbilt. They can, however, claim Al Gore, David Brinkley, Amy Grant and the legendary Will Perdue (maybe the worst player in NBA history with 4 championship rings). Party. Georgetown has Dikembe Mutumbo, Bill Clinton and... fuck, does it even really matter? Dikembe Mutumbo and Bill Clinton! Edge: Georgetown

The play to make: Vanderbilt already toppled one well-coached well-balanced team in the 2nd Round, can they make it rain again? Most likely not, but laying more than two possessions in a game that could go either way is a terrible idea. The defense will tighten up in the 1st Half, but I expect both teams to open it up in the 2nd. Play: Vanderbilt +7.5 (low confidence); Under 131 (low confidence)

Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: Florida vs. Butler

2007-03-21T10:36:00.000-05:00

(1) Florida -10.5 vs. (5) Butler (O/U: 125)

Joakim Noah and the Gators roll into the Sweet 16, coming off a tougher-than-expected victory over Purdue. Butler got here a little more easily than expected, steam-rolling Old Dominion and then shutting down Maryland.

Butler's offense is highly predicated on its star guard, A.J. Graves. The small town boy from Switz City, Indiana is enjoying his 15 minutes right now, and will have to come up huge for the Bulldogs to have any chance against Florida. Even though the Gators have been showing a propensity lately to play down to their opponents, Butler is still going to need big games from Graves and his back-court mate Mike Green on the offensive end. They can't expect to keep the pressure on Florida on the defensive end the way SIU did against Kansas. There will be stretches where the Bulldogs have to just match Florida basket-for-basket to keep themselves afloat in this one.

As for Florida, it's no secret these guys are probably the best collection of talent and experience in the field this year. Billy Donovan probably remembers the last time the Gators met with the Bulldogs, it was the 1st Round of the 2000 tournament, and Florida needed a Mike Miller runner at the buzzer in overtime to bail them out of the 12-vs.-5 upset. The Gators went all the way to the Final 4 that year, only the second trip in school history. Butler, meanwhile, propelled themselves to become one of the leading mid-major programs in the country. And so they meet again, this time Butler is the 5 seed, Florida a 1 seed, likely on their way back to the Final 4 with the victory here and another historic quest for the school's program.

Battle of the Mascots: Come on, now.

Battle of the Famous Alumni: Butler has a legendary author (Kurt Vonnegut), a legendary porn star (Hyapatia Lee) and a legendary cult leader (Jim Jones). Florida has Faye Dunaway, Emmitt Smith and Bob Vila. And, oh yeah, Jesse "The Bachelor" Palmer and Rex "Sex Cannon" Grossman. Also, Erin Andrews was a member of the dance team... but Jesse Palmer probably soiled her in college, so f that. Edge: Butler

The play to make: This is a tough one, because Butler doesn't have the defensive prowess that allowed SIU to hang with Kansas. The Bulldogs do typically play in low scoring games, but that's more of a credit to their ability to set a slow tempo with their offense, though their pressure defense is nothing to sneeze at. Florida had a tough time with a Purdue team that plays a similar style, but you get the feeling the Gators can pick their final score in this one. Still, 10.5 is a lot of points to ask for in what could be a very low scoring game. Play: Butler +10.5 (low confidence); Over 125 (low confidence)

Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: Ohio State vs. Tennessee

2007-03-21T10:34:00.000-05:00

(1) Ohio State -4.5 vs. (5) Tennessee (O/U: 144.5)

After escaping against Xavier in Round 2, things don't get easier for TOBTTR (The only Big-10 team remaining). The Buckeyes face Tennessee in the 2nd Round and the Vols are hot. Tennessee has won 9 of its last 11 games, including big wins over Florida, Arkansas and Kentucky; and a tough 2nd-round victory over Virginia. Of course, Ohio State is hotter, winners of 19 straight, a winning streak that started on January 13th with a victory over, who else, the Tennessee Volunteers.

TOSU needed a big game from their guards to bail them out against Xavier and they got it, as Mike Conley took over down the stretch and in overtime to lead them to victory. But the game might have exposed Ohio State's greatest weakness, that Greg Oden can be somewhat neutralized if you open up the offense, spread the floor and run up-and-down the court.

This could play right into Tennessee's hands. The Vols love to play in transition, getting open 3 pointers and cuts to the basket. Look for them to utilize a lot of dribble penetration when they're forced into a half-court set to try and lure Greg Oden into foul trouble. Wayne Chism had a great game against Virginia, but won't be able to hold his own against Oden. However, Tennessee can attempt to draw Oden away from the rim by getting the ball to Chism early for a couple of his patented short jumpers.

Ohio State usually can adapt to their opponents and beat them at any pace. They might pull out a match-up zone in this one to try to cut off Tennessee's penetration lanes and keep Oden out of foul trouble. This is a very young Buckeyes team, and now that we've reached the big stage, they'll need solid coaching to keep them going. Can Thad Matta provide that? It's debatable.

Battle of the Mascots: This has to be the wussiest mascot battle of the 3rd Round. A droopy-eared hound vs. a giant fuckin' buckeye. I guess the dog would eat the buckeye and that would be that, huh? Edge: Tennessee

Battle of the Famous Alumni: Tennessee has its fair share of famous athletes (Peyton Manning, Reggie White, Justin Gatlin, Todd Helton). Also famous country singer Deanna Carter. Ohio State also has a laundry list of great athletes (Jerry Lucas, Jesse Owens, Cris Carter and Jack Nicklaus). And famous country singer Dwight Yoakam. So who would win in a fight, Deanna Carter or Dwight Yoakam? Your answer to that probably says a lot about you as a person. Edge: Ohio State

The play to make: It's hard to imagine Ohio State going down this early in the tournament, but they have had the closest call of any 1 seed thus far. The truth is, Tennessee is a dangerous match-up for the Buckeyes, this Vols team outgun Ohio State and Chris Lofton is playing like a man on a mission right now. If you're going to play Tennessee, definitely consider their money line as well. Play: Tennessee +4.5 (high confidence); Under 144.5 (low confidence)

Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: UCLA vs. Pittsburgh

2007-03-21T10:32:00.000-05:00

(2) UCLA -3 vs. (3) Pittsburgh (O/U: 123)

Rarely do you get to see a college basketball game where one team is so much stronger than the other on the perimeter, while one is so much stronger than the other on the interior. Such is UCLA vs. Pitt, a game which could end up as a serious battle of attrition.

Pittsburgh is not the hard-nosed defensive team we typically think of when we think of the Panthers. This team can play tough on defense, but they can also score in bunches. They wore down an undersized VCU team early with some terrific post play from Levon Kirkland and Aaron Gray. But late in the game, the Pittsburgh guards wore down and VCU took advantage before Ronald Ramon surprisingly took the game over in overtime.

UCLA has struggled at times this year against teams with tough interior presences. This was on display in the regular season during losses to Stanford, Washington and West Virginia. But Pittsburgh also struggled mightily against teams with quick and deep back-courts, such as Louisville, Georgetown and Marquette.

So which side gives? Aaron Afflalo struggled for most of the game against Indiana, but came up huge in the clutch when the Bruins needed him. He and Darren Collison are arguably the best guard duo left in the tournament.

Battle of the Mascots: UCLA's Joe Bruin can sometimes look pretty tame, and can sometimes look pretty ferocious. Pitt's Panther looks like the sneaky type, but we can't forgive for having this perfect opportunity to viciously maul Mike Greenberg and not taking advantage of it. Plus, looking back at that first picture, you'd imagine Joe Bruin just shows his tame side to roll in the bitches. Edge: UCLA

Battle of Famous Alumni: UCLA has a pretty substantial list here, including Francis Ford Coppola, James Dean, Jack Black, Tim Robbins, the chick who played Winnie on the Wonder Years, a Hall-of-Famer in almost any sport you can imagine (Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Jackie Robinson, Arthur Ashe, Troy Aikman, Jackie Joyner Kersee and Rafer Johnson to name a few) and of course everyone's favorite drop-out, Jim Morrison. Pittsburgh has a pretty extensive list of football players and coaches (Dan Marino, Jimmy Johnson, Curtis Martin, Mike Ditka). But they also have Orrin Hatch. Fuck him. Edge: UCLA

The play to make: UCLA is the better team here, they play better defense, they're the better coached team, they're the more explosive offensive team, they're the better perimeter team, they're the more experienced team, they have the location advantage playing in California and most people expect them to win. And they're laying only 3 points. In other words, buyer beware all around. Play: UCLA -3 (low confidence); Over 123 (low confidence)

Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: Memphis vs. Texas A&M

2007-03-21T09:30:00.000-05:00

(2) Memphis +3 vs. (3) Texas A&M (O/U: 134.5)

The Memphis Tigers had quite a season under the radar in '06/'07. They went undefeated and untied through the weak Conference USA. They haven't lost since 2006, taking home a victory in their last 24 games in a row by an average of 19 points per game victory margin. The problem is, only 5 of their 33 regular season battles were waged against an honest-to-god tournament team (wins against Kentucky and Gonzaga, losses to Georgia Tech, Arizona and Tennessee).

A lot of pundits (yours truly included) expected the Tigers to flame out early in this tournament, but they're still standing in the 3rd Round, which is a testament to their tough defense and their unmatched athleticism. One the downside, this is a young team prone to inexperienced mistakes down the stretch and absolutely abysmal free throw shooting (62% in regular season).

The intrigue of this game might be Memphis' PG situation. They start freshman Willie Kemp because they like his speed and his outside shooting. But he typically steps out of the game late anyway, because he's maybe the worst FT shooting PG in NCAA history. Andre Allen is only 5-11, but he's an incredible man-to-man defender and may be getting more playing time in this game to try and neutralize Acie Law. Unfortunately, Allen is less of an offensive threat and almost just as god-awful as a FT shooter.

Memphis has some strength inside, but a lack of size, but the Aggies probably won't take advantage of that. This Memphis is very similar to the Louisville team that A&M defeated in Round 2. They did it by getting the Cardinals' big men in foul trouble early and then letting their guards wear down the help defense with dribble penetration. Expect more of the same here from Law and Dominique Kirk. It'll be interesting to see if A&M gets their center, Antanas Kavaliaskus more involved, he was a virtual no-show vs. Louisville.

Battle of the Mascots: So, what is an aggie? It's a type of marble, you know those little things kids played with like 50 years ago? We could see some type of scenario where the marbles are spread out across the ground and the tiger comically stumbles over them. But in the end, he's still a tiger. Edge: Memphis

Battle of Famous Alumni: A&M's list includes Lyle Lovett, Rip Torn, Chuck Knoblauch and a whole bunch of Miss USA, Miss Texas USA and Miss Teen USA winners. Memphis doesn't have much, but they do have Isaac Bruce, Penny Hardaway and the legendary Wink Martindale. Edge: A&M

What's the play to make: It's no surprise the public is willing to lay some points with the lower seed in this situation. Memphis has long been considered the most overrated of all the top seeds (even though they made it longer than Wisconsin), and A&M was a sleeper Final 4 pick for a lot of people. The fact is, Memphis matches up pretty well with Texas A&M, so this should be a close game. Rule of thumb is take the points in that situation, but it's also hard to pick against the Aggies. They seem like a team on a mission right now and they know if they can get past the Tigers, they match up incredibly well against Ohio State (or Tennessee if needed). I'm not expecting a lot of points in this game at all, look for something in the 65-62 final score range. Play: Texas A&M -3 (low confidence); Under 134.5 (medium confidence)

Greg Oden's "Unintentional Foul"

2007-03-21T09:08:00.000-05:00

The only coverage I've heard of Ohio State's comeback win over Xavier in round 2 of the NCAA tournament was that Greg Oden's foul near the end of regulation should have been called intentional and sealed the game for Xavier. This idea is absurd.

First of all no one seems to mention how Oden was fouled while trying to make that rebound. Apparently holding a player's arms back while the ball is up for grabs is ok now. However, the referees did their jobs and swallowed their whistles at the end of the game in order to let the plaers decide the outcome. Exactly what they should have done.

However, the most disturbing thing about the media's reaction to the play is their hypocrisy. Typically, the general consensus is that the players should decide the end of games, not the officials. Well isn't that exactly what happened? Oden had to foul Cage in order for the clock to stop and to bank their entire season on a missed free throw and a clutch three pointer to tie. He bumps into the guy to ensure a foul, Cage leaps out of bounds and that should be the deciding play of the game? If the ref calls and intentional foul and claims Xavier the winner after that play we never would have seen Cage miss the 2nd free throw and never would have seen Ron Lewis' incredible 3 pointer to tie the game and send it overtime where it was decided exactly where it should have been, by the players on the court. Whether or not a foul should be deemed intentional is a judgement call. In this particular instance, that's like eliminating the score of a game and having a judge decide at the end who won.

Why are sports analysts calling for this? Is it because they need something to fill all of the time they've alloted for Around the Horn, Pardon the Interruption and Sportscenter; 2 straight hours of people taking about the exact same stories? I understand it must be hard to pick sports stories to talk about in order to fill a day, but it seems like stories are being created rather than reported. Ohio State-Xavier was a phenomenal game. Xavier played an incredible game and almost had the Buckeyes dead and buried. Ohio State's ensuing comeback and clutch shooting made for one of, if not the best game of the 1st 2 rounds. Why not talk about the game rather than an appropriate "non-call"? If refs are deciding the outcomes of games, fans will lose interest quick. Then what will all these talking-heads do for a living? Be careful what you wish for.

Latvia, Estonia and Cyprus Embrace Gambling

2007-03-21T08:39:00.000-05:00

The European Union is demanding that Finland, Hungary and Denmark lift laws against sports gambling in their country.

What is the European Union? It's a bunch of European countries who feel like their power in the world is slipping, what with all the colonies growing up on their own now and all, so they've consolidated into one union that makes Europe as a whole feel like it matters at all in a world now dominated by the United States, China and crazy people with oil.

There's 27 nations in the European Union. Those countries include France, Great Britain and Germany, but they also include such mainstays and world power players as Latvia, Estonia and Cyprus.

This was their reasoning behind putting the screws to Finland, Hungary and Denmark:

"The countries could not claim they were trying to protect consumers from gambling if, at the same time, they incite and encourage people to use state lotteries and other gambling operators that pay the proceeds to the government."

So, great. The United States is now officially dumber than Latvia, Estonia and Cyprus.

For anyone who doesn't know, our illustrious U.S. Congress last year passed the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, which set in place a set of laws intended to curb online sports gambling in this country (as well as poker playing). Essentially, in an effort to increase "family values" and further protect us from ourselves, it's no longer o.k. for consenting adults to place wagers on sporting events, but it's still perfectly o.k. in participate in government-sponsored gambling such as the lottery.

The only politician who has had any balls at all is Barney Frank, who is trying to put together a bill that will appeal the decision. So if Latvia, Estonia, Cyprus and the gay, Jewish congressmen get it, why doesn't everybody else?

Sweet 16 Preview Bonanza: Kansas vs. Southern Illinois

2007-03-20T12:20:00.000-05:00

(1) Kansas -8.5 vs. (4) Southern Illinois (O/U: 125.5)

It's put up or shut up time for the young Jayhawks. After rolling past Niagara and Kentucky, Kansas faces their toughest test of the tournament in Southern Illinois (arguably their toughest test since losing to Texas A&M on February 3rd). The Jayhawks now own a 13-game winning streak, the 3rd longest in the country behind Ohio State (19) and Memphis (24).

These are two surprisingly similar teams. Both like to dictate pace with tight man-to-man defense and quality rebounding. Both have solid dribble penetration and outside shooting, but their offense can go cold if the jumpers aren't falling.

A few things have to go right for the Salukis to win this thing. They have to neutralize Kansas' transition offense and force them into jump shots in the half-court offense. Randal Falker has to play above his size (as he usually does) and match up with Julian Wright. Matt Shaw has to stretch the defense and keep Sasha Kaun away from the boards. And Jamal Tatum has to shoot lights-out while expending energy on the defensive end.

Battle of the Mascots: Jayhawks have the ability to fly but otherwise they seem like pacifists. Salukis are dopey looking dogs, but they are hunting dogs and they hunt by sight, so the unsightly blue bird shouldn't be difficult to track down. Edge: SIU

Battle of Famous Alumni: Bob Dole, Kirstie Alley, Paul Rudd and Wilt Chamberlain for Kansas. For Southern Illinois, it's Jim Belushi, Walt Frazier, Jenny McCarthy and the guy who played Shaft. But remember... Jim is the lame Belushi. Edge: Kansas

What's the play to make: This is a tough one to call. Normally, you shouldn't be backing an underdog unless you think they have a chance to win the game. It's been a rough tournament for underdogs... after covering in a remarkably low 7 out of 32 1st Round games, underdogs had a good run on Saturday, going 6-2 ATS, only to falter again on Sunday, going 3-5 ATS. So overall, underdogs are only 16-32 ATS so far this tournament (8-40 straight up). This is far-and-away the toughest team Southern Illinois has played this year, even though SIU is arguably the toughest defensive team Kansas has faced all year. The natural inclination in this game is to take the points, expecting a tough defensive battle. Even though I don't expect SIU to win, it's hard to argue against that play. The total seems like it's set low, and the public is biting, so the Under is a decent play. Play: Southern Illinois +8.5 (low confidence); Under 125.5 (medium confidence)

Gus Johnson and James Brown

2007-03-20T09:57:00.000-05:00

CBS is replacing Gus Johnson with James Brown as an announcer for the remainder of the NCAA tournament. This is troubling.

First of all, Gus Johnson's "full time" job is radio announcer for the Knicks, so the guy's life is difficult enough as is, why do we have to send him back to it so soon?

But more importantly, Gus Johnson is tits. Gus Johnson makes any NCAA tournament game about 325% more exciting than it already was. Allow me to be the 3,000th person in the last week to joke about how sweet it would be if Gus Johnson announced your daily life at work:

"He takes a sip of coffee.... from his thermossssss... and the dream is alive! The data has been analyzed! The mouse pad still fits! Woooowwwwwww!"

I don't necessarily hate James Brown. I don't like him either. That's the problem with James Brown. He's like the color gray or Snapple lemon iced tea or the third Lethal Weapon movie. It's hard to really have an opinion on him, he's just sort of there.

Even his name is dull. James Brown the late funk legend? Oh, sorry, you mean James Brown the guy who pretends to laugh at Boomer Esiason's jokes and once hosted America's Funniest Home Videos.

Joey Porter Fight Club

2007-03-19T13:49:00.000-05:00

So, Joey Porter beat the crap out of Levi Jones at a blackjack table at the Palms.

Two lingering questions:

1) Levi Jones plays for the Bengals. You're telling me when the cops showed up, they didn't just arrest Jones out of habit? I mean, when you have two black men in the room, you make it hard enough for the cops to instantly decide who's guilty, but you had to involve a Cincinnati Bengal as well? I'm surprised Jones didn't get tasered within the first 30 seconds of his statement to Vegas police.

2) What were they arguing about? Maybe Levi Jones hit on a 14 when the dealer was showing a 6? Is Jones the type of guy who splits 10's? Did Jones make a joke about the painting of dogs playing poker with a miniature horse as the dealer? These all seem realistic, but I tend to believe they were arguing over their favorite Air Supply album. Porter strikes me as the kind of guy who will defend the studioized glamor of the Lost in Love album, while Jones is more interested in the thoughtful later work of News From Nowhere.

These are the types of disagreements amongst adults that tend to come to blows.

Broken Tackle's 2007 NFL Mock Draft

2007-03-19T13:13:00.000-05:00

1. Oakland Raiders - QB Jamarcus Russell - LSU
Russell seems to be the consensus number 1 overall pick and with good reason. He's enormous, has a cannon for a right arm, can evade the rush, and has great accuracy. However, with Al Davis still making the decisions in Oakland he very well may draft a toaster. This is the same guy that passed up Matt Leinart for a safety just last year.

2. Detroit Lions - QB Brady Quinn - Notre Dame
Speaking of clueless GMs. The reports are that the Lions want to stay with Jon Kitna as their starting QB. That makes sense, blow 3 consecutive drafts on WRs and then stick with Kitna to get them the ball. However, they did pass up Leinart last year for an undersized OLB. Quinn was thought to be the #1 QB coming into the '06 season and really didn't do anything to change that except play on an overrated team.

3. Cleveland Browns - RB Adrian Peterson - Oklahoma
After finishing 2nd in the Heisman race as a freshman, Peterson's stock has dropped in some people's minds because of a few injuries. If the doctors clear him medically, Peterson should be a top pick. The Browns signed Jamal Lewis to a one year contract (probably so he won't run all over them for a change), so bringing in Peterson still makes perfect sense.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR Calvin Johnson - Georgia Tech
I don't even think the sky is the limit for this guy. He's got incredible hands, he's 6'5 240lbs., runs a 4.4 40, blocks in the run game, and constantly beat double and triple teams in college. John Gruden has always been an offensive minded coach and this is the perfect opportunity to get him a real threat in the passing game.

5. Arizona Cardinals - LT Joe Thomas - Wisconsin
As good as this looks on paper for the Cardinals, it is the Cardinals we're talking about. They got a top notch QB in Matt Leinart last year and now can get him some protection. Something just has to give though, I mean this is the Cardinals. Either Thomas' knee will explode or someone will trade up and get him just before their pick. I mean, come on, it's the Cardinals.

6. Washington Redskins - DE Gaines Adams - Clemson
Considering their lack of a pass rush last year, this is a perfect "need pick" for them. Adams may be a little smaller than the ideal, but he's still quick and able to get to the QB. Once again though, Dan Snyder, the Ghost of Joe Gibbs, and Tom Cruise are making this selection, so who knows who will be drafted.

7. Minnesota Vikings - WR Ted Ginn - Ohio State
They tried to get a raw receiver with blazing speed once before and that hasn't quite worked out yet. Ginn is another story though. This guy was extremely productive, versatile, and dangerous at OSU and would be a great downfield threat for whichever QB the Vikings suit up in '07.

8. Houston Texans - LT Levi Brown - Penn State
I've been trying and trying to figure out how the Texans will surprise everyone and completely blow yet another draft, but I don't think they could possibly pass up a potential franchise LT in Brown. However, a team that can pass up both Vince Young and Reggie Bush in the same draft can certainly blow this one as well.

9. Miami Dolphins - DT Alan Branch - Michigan
If this guy actually tried to play hard in college, he could have been a top 5 pick. He's huge and very athletic for his size, but just like the saying, size isn't everything (I swear). On potential alone this guy is a top 10 pick, but I'd consider this guy a gamble for sure.

10. Atlanta - DT Amobi Okoye - Louisville
He's a top 10 pick and he's only 19 years old. That's incredible. If he turns out to be a player in this league, and I think he will, he'll be able to sign several big time contracts. An interior line of Rod Coleman and Okoye will certainly help their lack of a pass rush. Too bad the nickname "Nigerian Nightmare" was already taken.

11. San Francisco - WR - Dwayne Jarrett - USC
This offense may actually be formidable next year. Jarrett moves just up the state and the Niners gain a big time play maker to add to their offense. The defense was helped quite a bit in free agency, but I bet they continue to address it in later rounds of this draft.

12. Buffalo - RB Marshawn Lynch - Cal
The Bills have had a stellar offseason so far losing several starting LBs and their #1 tailback. Now Marshawn Lynch gets to move from sunny California to not-so-sunny Buffalo. Sorry Marshawn, I wouldn't want to live their either.

13. St. Louis - DE Jamaal Anderson - Arkansas
Combine Anderson with Leonard "I'm fine to drive" Little and QBs in the NFC West may actually sweat a bit playing the Rams. The offense will continue to be a force with Bulger, Holt, Jackson, and of course the much needed white slot receiver in Drew Bennett; but I really can't remember the last time this defense was any good.

14. Carolina Panthers - S Laron Landry - LSU
If he does drop this far the Panthers are extremely lucky. If I'm the NFL genius I think I am, the Panthers have quite a player here at #14. With Landry patrolling the deep middle, this defensive backfield is loaded which will give Julius Peppers even more time to get to the QB.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers - DE/OLB Jarvis Moss - Florida
I'm really sick of seeing the Gators. Call me bitter (I'm an OSU fan), but I hate that Gator Chop thing. Now this Gator will play for the Steelers so I can continue booing him, perfect, I needed someone to replace Joey Porter.

16. Green Bay - WR Robert Meachem - Tennessee
Since they're not going to get Randy Moss, they get to settle for Robert Meachem. If Favre remembers which jersey to throw to Meachem should be able to produce right away. He's got the size, the speed, and the hands to help this team make it to 2nd place in the worst division in football again.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars - DE Adam Carriker - Nebraska
Adam should fit in nicely next to John Henderson and Marcus Stroud on the Jaguars' D-Line. I wouldn't want to be a running back facing that line. The Jaguars have built themselves a nice defense, now, about that QB...

18. Cincinnati Bengals - CB Leon Hall - Michigan
They tried drafting Mother Theresa to help with their recent image problem, but she wasn't available. So instead they turn to the other DB tumbling down the draft. He may not have Deion Sanders' speed, but he'll help out with their awful run game and be a consistent player in the secondary; until he gets arrested.

19. Tennessee Titans - TE Greg Olsen - Miami
Nothing helps a young QB develop like a good safety valve to throw to. Olsen ran past all the other TEs during the combine and made himself several million dollars.

20. New York Giants - S Reggie Nelson - Florida
Reggie Nelson will make plenty of big play interceptions playing for the Giants. I mean, he'll make them in practice, Eli isn't Peyton.

21. Denver Broncos - WR Dwayne Bowe - LSU
Once Dre Bly settles down and quits whining, he'll stay in Denver and make the best CB combo in the league. Then the Broncos can turn their attention to their aging offense. Rod Smith was once catching passese from Moses, so his time in the league is just about done. If Bowe can catch the ball consistently, I hear that's important for WRs to do, he'll be a good player.

22. Dallas Cowboys - DB Aaron Ross - Texas
Ross is capable of playing corner or safety for the Cowboys. They definitely could use someone to cover the deep middle of the field and Ross should be perfect for that.

23. Kansas City - WR Sidney Rice - South Carolina
Whoever the Chiefs decide to make their starting QB needs someone to throw the ball downfield to. They've been using Tony Gonzalez as their only pass catching option for years and still haven't figured out that it's not enough. If they don't stretch the defense Larry Johnson is going to continue to get pounded every game and my fantasy team will suffer. We can't have that.

24. New England Patriots - CB Chris Houston - Arkansas
Hard working, tough as nails corner looks perfect for the Patriots. However, if they add depth to the secondary Bill Belichick's praise for winning despite an injury riddled team may slow down some. I'm sure ESPN will find something else to obsess over with him.

25. New York Jets - DE/OLB Charles Johnson - Georgia
Mangini follows Belichick's scheme and attempts to turn a DE into a pass rushing OLB in the 3-4. Maybe he can talk Chad Pennington into mimicking Tom Brady's every move and the cloning will be complete.

26. Philadelphia - C Ryan Kalil - USC
After trying unsuccessfully to sign LeCharles Bentley a year ago, the Eagles do what they do every year and draft a lineman. Unlike Bentley, Kalil may actually play in a game. If the Eagles are lucky enough for that to happen Kalil looks like a pretty sure-fire center.

27. New Orleans Saints - LB Patrick Willis - Ole Miss
The Saints get Reggie Bush last year and Pat Willis this year. Two cornerstones for this team for years to come. Willis is a play maker. Throughout his career at the great football factory of Ole Miss, Willis has made tackles all over the field and will be a great addition to the Saints.

28. New England Patriots - LB Paul Posluszny - Penn State
He just has to be drafted by the Patriots. He looks like a Patriot linebacker (he's white) and plays like one (he's good). And that's that.

29. Baltimore Ravens - OG Ben Grubbs - Auburn
The Ravens need O-Line help immediately. Jamal Lewis took a lot of blame for his run production slipping, but it's hard to run when there isn't anywhere to go. Grubbs looks like the best guard in the draft and should start immediately for them.

30. San Diego Chargers - WR Steve Smith - USC
A lot of teams need pass catching help and this is the year to draft them. The Chargers offense is great, but adding a receiver like Smith would really help Rivers attack defenses from multiple angles.

31. Chicago Bears - LB Lawrence Timmons - FSU
Whether Lance Briggs plays for the Bears ever again is pretty much up in the air. If he plays this year or not, he'll be gone at the end of the season and Timmons will be there to take over. Now, about that QB...

32. Indianapolis Colts - LB Jon Beason - Miami
They did win the Super Bowl, but I don't think anyone is arguing that the Colts need to improve their run defense. Adding to the need, Cato June signed with Tampa Bay this offseason. At the least they're hoping Beason can make up for that loss.

Broken Tackle's Weekend Wrap-up

2007-03-19T09:38:00.000-05:00

Some things to ponder if your bracket now looks like the last 15 minutes of The Departed:

1) What does this say about Kevin Durant? He couldn't carry his team the Final 4, so he's no Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Mike Bibby, Marcus Camby, Grant Hill or Danny Manning. Then again, he's also no Jay Williams, Juan Dixon, John Wallace or Bryant Reeves.

How many current NBA stars failed to reach the Sweet 16? Shaq is probably the most well known, going 0-for-3 when he played for LSU. Steve Nash never reached it in 4 tries, but he played for little-known Santa Clara, and in his presence they made 3 tournament appearances in 4 years, including one incredible upset as a 15-seed over a 2-seed.

Probably just as important: Kobe Bryant, Tracey McGrady, Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming and Amare Stoudemire never reached a Sweet 16, let alone a Final 4. So yeah, there's that.

2) This is the first bracket since '95 without a single double-digit seed reaching the Sweet 16. This is no coincidence. The '95 draft was also the year Kevin Garnett was taken 5th overall straight out of high school. This opened the door for Kobe Bryant and Jermaine O'Neal in '96; Tracey McGrady in '97; and you know the story from there.

This was the first year that the NBA instituted its age limit, and college basketball has been the beneficiary. Though the irony may be that a lot of these freshman sensations flamed out in the first two rounds, and the Sweet 16 is littered with veteran teams like UCLA, Florida, Butler, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Southern Illinois and Pittsburgh.

3) David Wells has diabetes. In other news: Pete Rose bet on baseball, Roger Clemens can't make a decision, the sky is blue and the War in Iraq is fucked.

Game preview #16: Indiana vs. Gonzaga

2007-03-15T12:13:00.000-05:00

(7) Indiana -1.5 vs. (10) Gonzaga (O/U: 142)

Deja vu for these two teams, battling again in the NCAA tournament with the winner moving on to play UCLA.

Indiana had their most solid year in a long under new coach Kelvin Sampson. And Sampson has had some tournament success in the past. But they've really struggled on the road this year which makes you question their toughness for an NCAA tournament run. This is a pretty typical IU club, they can shoot the lights out from 3-point land and they have only one true inside presence, the undersized but tough-as-nails D.J. White.

Gonzaga, meanwhile, had their worst season in a long time. This team looked dead in the water about a month ago, with Josh Heytvelt suspended, their home winning streak snapped and Santa Clara pulling away in the conference standings. But the Bulldogs rallied, and came away with the WCC regular season and tournament titles. Incredibly, this team has had more success as a 9-16 seed (8-4 record with 3 Sweet 16 appearances in 4 tries) than they've had as a 1-8 seed (4-4 record with 1 Sweet 16 appearance in 4 tries). So, if the underdog shoe fits you might as well wear it, and this is the team who redefined underdog in this decade, opening the door for the Kent States and George Masons of the world.

This game will be a battle on the perimeter. With Adam Morrison playing in Charlotte and Josh Heytvelt conversing with giant pink elephants in his jail cell (speculatory), the Zags rely heavily
on their 1-2 guard combo of Jeremy Pargo and Derek Raivio. It may sound trite and over-simplified, but this game really will come down to which team's guards do a better job shooting the ball. If one team or the other goes through a cold stretch, that could spell the end.

The play to make: The public is surprisingly split about 50/50 on this game, considering that espn.com users picked Gonzaga as their only consensus upset of the 1st Round in the National Bracket. Obviously that 1.5 points doesn't leave any room for error on either side, so you need to keep it simple and pick who you think is going to win. Though it may be public perception, I think Gonzaga +1.5 is still the correct side. Also, some line movement indicates the Under is a sharp play as well, maybe a better play than siding with the Zags.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Well, this depends on which Hoosier we're talking about. Larry Bird is a "hoosier" and he could kick a bulldog's ass. But Michael Jackson is also one and he most certainly couldn't. In fact, just for having a nickname that could potentially describe Michael Jackson, this is an choice. Edge: Gonzaga

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Kelvin Sampson is like a big, cuddly, formal teddy bear in a suit. Edge: Indiana

Game preview #15: Pittsburgh vs. Wright State

2007-03-15T09:41:00.000-05:00

(3) Pittsburgh -10 vs. (14) Wright State (O/U: 119.5)

Reviewing the pre-requisites for a 14-over-3 upset, this one doesn't qualify at all. Wright State is not a high scoring squad, in fact they barely score at all, the Raiders averaged a paltry 64 points per game this season. Wright State is led by DaShaun Wood, a do-everything PG that was the Horizon Conference player of the year. Really though, they don't have much else. They played ok for much of the season, then turned it on at the end, upset Butler in February, and then upset the Bulldogs again in the Horzon title game to make it to the big dance.

Wright State's lack of any interior presence really could spell doom for them, especially against a Pittsburgh team that can pound the ball inside with Aaron Gray. Not to mention the 6-10 Levon Kendall, and the 6-8/245 Tyrell Biggs off the bench. Pitt's guard play is underrated as well, Levance Fields is athletic enough to hang with Wood and make the rest of Wright State beat them.

The play to make: Wright State has become a pretty vogue upset pick, but I think that's reaching. So long as the line isn't outrageous, you should really never take the dog unless you expect them to win outright. That being said, it's hard to bank on Pittsburgh winning this game by double-digits. Make a small play on Pittsburgh -10 in this one, and as low as the Under seems, it still might be a good play.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Not sure what a raider is really, but for some reason their logo is a coyote-looking thing. Still, they're going against a pretty pissed-off looking panther. Edge: Pittsburgh

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Aaron Gray is delicious. Edge: Pittsburgh

Game preview #14: BYU vs. Xavier

2007-03-15T09:00:00.000-05:00

(8) BYU +2 vs. (9) Xavier (O/U: 148.5)

Very few people are talking about this game, probably because it's going to be on late at night and the winner is most likely going to be served up on a platter to Ohio State on Saturday. Both these teams flew completely under the radar this year.

BYU is led by senior PG Austin Ainge, son of former NBA star and current NBA lottery ticket holder (grand prize: Kevin Durant), Danny Ainge. Ainge plays a lot like his dad, a good floor general and a good 3-point shooter but can get absolutely embarrassed on defense. Their star player however is Keena Young, one of the most underrated players in the nation, probably because he's a black guy who plays for BYU.

Xavier is getting ripped on for their inclusion in the tournament after they flamed out against Rhode Island in the A-10 semifinals. But this is a pretty solid team, they like to get out and run and they have some solid upperclassmen leadership. This game will be determined on the perimeter, neither team has a true post presence. That could make for a really wide open contest, and also could open the door for Keena Young to really dominate this game.

The play to make: This is one of the most curious lines in the 1st Round. After Xavier's tournament inclusion caused a collective groan from most of the tourney analysts, one would expect BYU, a team many considered under-seeded to be established as the favorites. But not only has Xavier been given favored status, the line has increased a half-point even though the general population is taking BYU as the underdog. Maybe because MWC teams have fared so poorly in the NCAA tournament? BYU looked like one the best plays on the board at first, but that line movement has to give you some pause. I still think the BYU money line (+127 if you can get it) is the best play. Give the Under some consideration as well, especially if you think BYU is winning this game.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: As opposed to popular belief, BYU actually has a pretty bad-ass mascot, a cougar. A musketeer might put up a fight for a while, but eventually the cougar is going to overcome that wussy little thin sword and have himself a musketeer buffet. Edge: BYU

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Something about Mormons always creeps her out. Edge: Xavier

Game preview #13: UCLA vs. Weber State

2007-03-15T08:46:00.000-05:00

(2) UCLA -20 vs. (15) Weber State (O/U: 128)

So what happened to UCLA? The Bruins rolled along all season before dropping their regular season closer to Washington and then their Pac-10 quarterfinal match-up with California. For those scoring at home, that's two teams that didn't even make the NIT. Then again, maybe the Bruins are crazy like a fox. While every other 1 and 2 seed played at least two games this past weekend, UCLA has been resting since last Thursday.

UCLA is arguably the best defensive team in the tournament. If they're making their shots, they can and will beat anyone else in the field, the problem is the shots aren't always falling. If someone's going to beat UCLA they're going to do it by pounding the ball inside and wearing away at the Bruins' lack of interior size or depth. Still, they've got three perimeter guys: Darren Collison, Aaron Afflalo and Josh Shipp, who are capable of taking over a game at any time and willing this team to victory.

Weber State... well, they're Weber State. They like to keep things tight defensively as well, but they obviously don't have the scorers or athletes to match UCLA. Not to mention, they like to turn the ball over a lot, which plays right into the Bruins' hands. Harold "The Show" Arceneaux is not walking through that door.

The play to make: This is a rare case where the public is expecting the 15-seed to keep it within 20 points. This is pretty possible, but I'm not sure why anyone would expect it to happen. UCLA can have their way with this team however they want, the real question is whether coach Ben Howland feels it's necessary to run up the score once it gets comfortable. My guess is no, and that's probably what Weber State backers are banking on. But this is playing with fire. I like the Under in this game, especially if it gets ugly early.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Finally, a man's man's fight, a wildcat and a bruin. The wildcat is wily and quick (and in this case, purple), but in the end the bruin will simply overpower it and get things over with. Edge: UCLA

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Gotta go with the heart here and show some appreciation for UCLA's classic blue-and-gold uniform color scheme. Edge: UCLA

Game preview #12: Marquette vs. Michigan State

2007-03-14T23:17:00.000-05:00

(8) Marquette +2 vs. (9) Michigan State (O/U: 123)

Hey, did you guys know Tom Crean used to coach under Tom Izzo? No foolin'.

This is a tough draw for Marquette, who had a terrific season and probably deserved better than an 8-seed. You have to wonder if star guard Jerel McNeal's injury had anything to do with their seeding. So the question becomes: does this young team rally without their star player? Or are they doomed to one-and-done without him on the floor? Much of it will come down to PG Dominic James, who was inconsistent down the stretch with McNeal hurt. Marquette is young, quick and potentially deep enough to overcome McNeal's absence.

Michigan State is a pretty similar team, their star is guard Drew Neitzel. But they do have more of a solid inside presence than Marquette with Marquise Grey, Goran Suton and Drew Naymick down low. Sometimes the Spartans get themselves into trouble (sign of their youth) when they play isolation offense and everyone stands around watching Neitzel create. But otherwise, they have all the makings of a tourney sleeper: solid rebounding, hard-nosed defense and good scoring balance on offense. Plus this team was banged up much of the year but is healthy now.

The Big-10 is being seen as overrated heading into the tournament this year and with pretty good reason. The Big-10 style of play can be tedious to watch, and Big-10 teams had a tough time for the most part in their non-conference schedules. But with everyone overlooking them, don't be surprised if at least a couple Big-10 teams over-perform their seed. Few people expect Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois and Indiana to get past the 1st round, let alone into the Sweet 16. So don't be surprised when one or more of these squads make a surprise Sweet 16 run.

The play to make: Early money was on Marquette in this game, but once it became announced that McNeal was out indefinitely, the Spartans money train started flowing in. Yet, Vegas has shifted the line only half a point? Something is suspicious about that one. Play this one at your own risk, you'll probably end up feeling silly either way. The best play here is probably the Over. Tread carefully no matter what you do.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Another classic battle of human ingenuity vs. the ability to fly. Calling them the Spartans, however, leads you to imagine an entire army of Spartans. 300 is so hot right now. Edge: Michigan State

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Tom Izzo is dreamy, Drew Neitzel... not so much. That Marquette black-and-yellow color scheme? Blech. Edge: Michigan State

Game preview #11: Duke vs. Virginia Commonwealth

2007-03-14T22:51:00.000-05:00

(6) Duke -6.5 vs. (11) Virginia Commonwealth (O/U: 135)

The selection committee must have some sense of humor, taking the two most reviled teams in the field (Duke and Notre Dame), sticking them on the 6-seed line and then matching them up against the two most popular Cinderella hopefuls heading into the tournament, VCU and Winthrop. Are they setting us all up, or setting it up for us to knock it down.

Your opinion on the outcome of this game is indicative of who you expect to set the pace in this game. Will Duke pound the ball inside and take advantage of their much bigger and more talented front-court? Or will VCU speed the game up and take advantage of their much quicker and smarter back-court? The Rams' PG Eric Maynor is a cult hero now (here's why, just in case you've been living in a cave the last 10 days), and most people are expecting him to make Greg Paulus his bitch. The rest of the Rams guard rotation is formidable as well: B.A. Walker, Jesse Pellot and Jamal Shuler are all excellent ball handlers and 3-point shooters. Their inside guys are over-matched, but they are active on defense and the glass and might be able to hold their own for stretches so long as the guards are stretching the opponent's defense with their dribble penetration and cutting off dribble penetration and passing lanes on the other end.

Duke is your typical Duke team: soft in the inside, thin bench, veteran leadership, well-coached, somewhat obnoxious. This is however, arguably, the least talented Duke team in over a decade. Josh McRoberts shows some flashes of greatness on the inside, but also will disappear for large stretches of the game. Greg Paulus is a slightly more talented Steve Wojchiewski, while freshman swingman Jon Scheyer definitely improved as the year progressed. The best player on the roster is probably DeMarcus Nelson, not only Duke's top scorer but also their best defender, and he'll probably be assigned to try and shut down Eric Maynor. Duke still plays their typical aggressive man-to-man defense, but often the offense will completely sputter and put them in bad spots.

The play to make: VCU +6.5 seemed like one of the easiest plays of the week when I first saw the lines released, but the more I've thought about it I've realized Duke is favored by more than two possessions for a reason. This team is over-rated as always, but they can be dangerous when Coach K has a few days to prepare his troops (say what you want about Coach K, but he will always have his guys ready to play if he gets a few days to do it... give him only a day or two to prepare and well, he's fucked, but that doesn't matter here). Getting Gerald "Left Hook" Henderson back after his one-game suspension could also be a serious boost. I think anyone who lays the points with Duke is crazy, but I also don't think VCU +6.5 is that solid of a play. However, if you do make that play, make sure you add VCU +248 and Over 135, because if the Rams are winning this game, they're going to do it by exacerbating the pace and wearing out the Blue Devils down the stretch with loads of points scored. Keep in mind too, the public is only slightly favoring the Dukies, which is a rarity vs. such a lesser known opponent.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Still not sure why a devil is blue. Would the devil make some sort of deal with the Ram for his soul? More likely, the ram would just roshambo the devil square in his nuts and that would be the end of it. Edge: VCU

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Lovin' those cute white boys from Duke. And when the NBA thing doesn't work out, that MBA thing will. Edge: Duke

Game preview #9/#10: Ohio State vs. Central Connecticut / North Carolina vs. Eastern Kentucky

2007-03-14T22:40:00.000-05:00

(1) Ohio State -21 vs. (16) Central Connecticut State (O/U: 126.5)
(1) North Carolina -27 vs. (16) Eastern Kentucky (O/U: 142.5)

Not much to say about these games. North Carolina and Ohio State are going to win, let's start with that. Why anyone feels the need or desire to lay over 20 points in an NCAA tournament game is beyond me. The Buckeyes and Tar Heels know they will win these games easily, and couldn't care less how much they win by.

However... one interesting thing to note, similar to the note early on 2 vs. 15 games, 7 of the last 8 1 vs. 16 match-ups have been decided by 20 points or less. The only team to win by more was North Carolina, who beat Oakland by 28 points in the 1st Round in '05.

The play to make: Whether you're laying points or taking them, you're a braver man than I. The UNC-EKU line is somewhat interesting. Even though the public has been backing Eastern Kentucky, the spread is increasing (it opened at UNC -26). So it would appear there's some "sharp" money coming in on the Tar Heels to create that reverse line movement. Still, you'd have to somewhat batshit insane to want to make that play.

Game preview #8: Vanderbilt vs. George Washington

2007-03-14T22:19:00.000-05:00

(6) Vanderbilt -3.5 vs. (11) George Washington (O/U: 140)

It was an uninspiring season for both these squads, but they're here, so get used to it. The Commodores had their typical type of season, difficult to beat at home, difficult to get anything done right on the road. The difference this year, was their easy-as-pie non-conference schedule and a very mediocre SEC level of competition. Thus, despite their SEC quarterfinal flame-out, their strong RPI lifted them to a 6-seed. So what's good about Vanderbilt? They have upperclassmen leadership (they start two seniors and three juniors), they're a terrific perimeter shooting team and they can spread the floor pretty effectively and wear out a team's defense. Unfortunately, Vanderbilt's own defense has struggled at times this year, including in back-to-back losses to Arkansas to finish the season (the second coming in the SEC quarterfinals).

George Washington, as usual, was led by some strong guard play, Maureece Rice and Carl Elliott are a formidable duo, who fill in each other's strengths and weaknesses quite well in all aspects on the court. Unfortunately for the Colonials, they lack any real size: the biggest man in their rotation is their 6-9, 220 pound center, Dokun Akingbade. Karl Hobbs has built a decent team in D.C., this is their third straight trip to the big dance. But this is probably the weakest of the three teams, GW snuck through the A-10 tournament thanks to top seeds Xavier and Massachusetts getting upset before the Colonials had to face them.

The play to make: Vanderbilt might be the weakest 6-seed on the board, but luckily for them, they drew arguably the weakest 11-seed. George Washington strikes fear in the heart of nobody in this tournament. Vanderbilt -3.5 is a good play, but not a great one. If you expect Vanderbilt to win, then you expect them to have no trouble slowing down the pace of this game and cutting off GW's transition offense. Therefore, instead of laying the 3.5 points, I recommend sticking to the Under.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: This is probably the gayest mascot battle of the entire first round. Commodores vs. Colonials? Let's just move on. Edge: even

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Ladies love guys with power, especially executive power, even if they've been dead for 200 years. Edge: George Washington

Game preview #7: Texas A&M vs. Pennsylvania

2007-03-14T16:33:00.000-05:00

(3) Texas A&M -13.5 vs. (14) Pennsylvania (O/U: 135)

It's been a rough decade so far for the Ivy League schools, who made so much noise in the NCAA tournaments of the '90s. Pretty much no one expects Penn to win this game, let alone be competitive and well, maybe that's a sign you should consider betting on them. No one's really talking about Penn, but they do feature the legendary Ibby Jaaber, two-time Ivy League player of the year. Jaaber comprises a solid inside-outside duo with 6-7 Mark Zoller and the two tore up the Ivy this year. This is also the third straight tournament trip for this senior duo, so the bright lights won't be getting into their eyes.

Unfortunately for Jaaber, he's matched up against arguably the tournament's best PG in Acie Law. A&M is being considered a very dangerous team in this tournament and for good reason, the Aggies have experience, leadership, solid guard play, solid rebounding and clutch performances all around.

The play to make: The more I've looked this one over, the more I've been talking myself into Pennsylvania +13.5. They have the kind of slashing-and-shooting perimeter play that has given A&M trouble this year. Unfortunately for the Quakers, they also thrive off of sloppy guard play leading to turnovers, and that's something Acie Law won't be helping them out with. The public likes A&M to cover and I could see why, by the talent disparity this game could get ugly. But with everyone concentrating on Wright State and Oral Roberts as potential 14-seed upsets, Pennsylvania +13.5 might be a smart off-the-radar play. I also really like the Over in this game. Penn is regarded by the public as a defensive team, but they actually got out and scored some points this year, in both half-court and transition. The Over might be the best play overall in this match-up, though Penn +13.5 is the most inspired one.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: I have no idea what an aggie is, but I know that Quakers are pussies. I mean, look at this guy. I'll meet him in a dark alley any day. Edge: Texas A&M

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: When in doubt, go with the city (Philadelphia) that has hosted a season of The Real World. Edge: Pennsylvania

Game preview #6: Georgetown vs. Belmont

2007-03-14T16:27:00.000-05:00

(2) Georgetown -17 vs. (15) Belmont (O/U: 124)

This is the first game on the docket where the favorite can probably just name the final score and do whatever they want with it. Georgetown is one of the most talented and well-balanced all-around teams in the entire bracket. If they're going to get beat, a team will have to put pressure on their guards to force turnovers, and try to rattle this relatively young team into forcing their half-court offense. Belmont is not going to beat Georgetown.

But can Belmont cover against Georgetown? The Bruins are a more solid team than the one who lost to UCLA in last year's first round by 34 points. They actually do have some athletes in the back-court, who could pressure Georgetown... to an extent. Unfortunately Belmont is also rather turnover-prone themselves, and like most small schools in the tournament, they live and die with the 3-pointer. To their credit, Belmont won't be phased after playing UCLA in the first round last year, and playing road games against Illinois and Michigan State earlier this season.

The play to make: The line has shifted slightly in Georgetown's favor, and the public is backing them to cover. This is unsurprising, as the Hoyas have become a trendy Final 4 pick and most people don't even know where Belmont is (it's in Nashville). For Belmont to even cover in this game, they'll probably have to make at least a dozen 3-pointers. Why would you want to depend on that? But then, why would you want to depend on Georgetown deciding to keep their foot on the pedal and win by at least 17? One interesting note: in the last two tournaments only one 2-seed has won their game by 17 points or more, and that was the aforementioned UCLA over Belmont last year. So the odds are in Belmont's favor to cover, but if you're going to play it, play it small. Meanwhile, I'm developing an interest in the Over in this game. The public is betting the Under based on Georgetown's perception as a defensive team, but the total isn't budging. I think if you want to make a play in this game, I recommend it be the Over.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Dogs and bears should learn to get along, but there's no doubt the bear is winning this one. By the way, I don't know what an actual hoya is either. Edge: Belmont

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Did you know that Trisha Yearwood like, totally graduated from Belmont? But Georgetown has great shopping, great bars and lots of pre-meds. So, yeah, there's that. Edge: Georgetown

Game preview #5: Butler vs. Old Dominion

2007-03-14T16:24:00.000-05:00

(5) Butler -1.5 vs. (12) Old Dominion (O/U: 123)

The most obvious upset pick on the board Thursday, besides maybe VCU. After starting the year with victories over Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee and Gonzaga the Bulldogs saw their momentum slow down considerably down the stretch, losing to Illinois-Chicago, Loyola and Wright State twice (and So Ill in Bracket Busters, but there's certainly no shame in that). Old Dominion, meanwhile, struggled some early after stunning Georgetown in November, but won 12 straight games down the stretch before succumbing to George Mason in the CAA semis.

The CAA is the hot conference right now, and Old Dominion is an appealing team. Team experience and frontcourt scoring are key factors for a 12-seed upset and the Monarchs have both. They start 3 seniors and 2 juniors and have a bona fide inside threat in Valdis Vasilyus. Their coach has NCAA experience and this team was one-and-done in '05 and made an NIT Final 4 run in '06.

Butler is an uninspiring team, but they're a dangerous. They will set the tempo, and they will set it slow. If the game gets above the mid-60's they're in trouble. If they can take a lead, they tighten up their perimeter defense, making it difficult for opponents to play catch up. But if their outside shots are falling early, they will fall behind and they're not built to come from behind.

The play to make: Vegas sure knew this would be a popular upset pick when they set the line so low for Butler. The public is still making plays on Butler however, at what seems to be about a 65/35 clip. I have no idea why. The play here is Old Dominion +1.5 and Old Dominion +114 (hopefully you can find better, and you probably can on Matchbook). If you're playing the total, play the Under. Personally, I won't be playing the total.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Well, a Monarch could probably pass some rules that no bulldog would be able to petition. Plus, their mascot is a lion, who also seems to be king and I'm just not messing with that. Edge: Old Dominion

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Bulldogs are just fucking adorable and you're just going to have to learn to deal with that. Edge: Butler

Game preview #4: Washington State vs. Oral Roberts

2007-03-14T15:56:00.000-05:00

(3) Washington State -6.5 vs. (14) Oral Roberts (O/U: 120.5)

I have to admit when I was watching the bracket announcement show and Andy Katz pointed this out as a possible upset, I immediately circled Washington State to probably cover. Nothing against Andy Katz, I think he's a great analyst, but the odds of a 14-seed upsetting a 3-seed 3 years in a row are miniscule at best.

Washington State is an interesting team. They came pretty much out of nowhere this year, which is probably one of the main reasons most people expect them to not survive the first weekend. The tournament history is littered with teams like this, BCS conference teams that have unexpected seasons and then flame out when it's all on the line (look at Iowa in '06, Boston College in '05 and NC State in '04). Wazzu does fit the profile: they have an inconsistent PG, they lack size, they have a rookie coach, they play tough defense but their offense can sputter. One thing working for them, is the novelty of their defense could really confuse opponents that are predisposed to facing basic man-to-mans and zones. And they were a tough out on the road this year, with 3 of their 4 road losses coming against tournament teams (those 3 losses were by an average of just 4 points vs. UCLA, Oregon and Stanford... they had one blip on the schedule, a 14-point road loss to Utah).

So why Oral Roberts? Well, they will have the best player on the floor, Caleb Green. They have surprisingly good size for a mid-major. And they have senior leadership. Unfortunately they also turn the ball over a lot, which is murder for these small schools trying to pull off a big upset.

The play to make: The 6.5 points has to be one of the shortest lines in history for a 3 vs. 14 match-up, and Wazzu may see this as an insult. Remember, these guys just beat their rivals from Washington on a neutral court by 10 points less than a week ago in the Pac-10 semis. Unfortunately, from what I'm reading, the Cougars and their coach are displaying a "just happy to be here" kind of vibe which might not bode well in this game. There is no doubt Oral Roberts is a live dog, but I'm not willing to take just 6.5 points. I'd possibly be willing to lay 6 points or less with the Cougars. The public seems pretty much split 50/50 and you have to figure Andy Katz has something to do with that. I have absolutely no insight on this total, but if you're going to play it, I have no idea why you'd take the Over? Especially if expect Oral Roberts to keep it close.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Eagles vs. Cougars. Early edge to the eagle obviously, because it can fly. But have you seen their logo? Edge: Washington State

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Depends on what kind of oral! Ba-da ching! No, but seriously, she's taking Washington State. Edge: Washington State

Game preview #3: Louisville vs. Stanford

2007-03-14T15:50:00.000-05:00

(6) Louisville -5.5 vs. (11) Stanford (O/U: 127)

Two teams that went in opposite directions in February. Louisville came out of the edge of bubble obscurity to rally through the Big East, got hot at just the right time and turned a Big East semifinals trip into an NCAA 6-seed. Stanford, meanwhile, went from a Pac-10 sure thing to a team square on the bubble, whose inclusion many mocked due to their lack of wins in a field that included so many 20-game winners.

Juan Palacios' status is key in this one. Louisville needs him healthy and playing even though they do have a relatively deep bench even without him. For Stanford, will they get any production at all from their guards? Their front-court is formidable, but at times it seems like they're playing 3-on-5 out there. Mitch Johnson can handle the ball well, but can't do much of anything else. No one on this team can shoot jumpers, especially from 3-point range.

So does Rick Pitino come up with something here? Can he collapse on the Lopez brothers and force Stanford's guards to beat them? This is an interesting match-up, especially with the fact that Louisville could very easily fall asleep for large portion(s) of this game. But Stanford might literally fall asleep, after making the West-to-East road trip it will feel like this game is starting before 10 a.m. to them. And we all know college kids don't get much done before 10 a.m.

The play to make: If you're playing this game, you just have to take the points. Stanford +5.5 is a solid play, and if you're going to play that, you have to make a smaller play on Stanford +224 to supplement it. This might be another situation where the 1st Half line is the safer bet, though Stanford 1st Half +2.5 doesn't provide very solid value and besides the Cardinal might be rusty. I have absolutely no opinion on the total, but if you like Stanford, you probably like the Under too.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: A cardinal vs. a tree? But, remember the tree looks like this. That's some serious HR Puffnstuff shit. That tree is fucked up on acid and ain't no cardinal taking it down. Edge: Stanford

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: If she's a Southern girl, her heart might be with Louisville, KY, even though Rick Pitino has definite creepy old guy vibes. More likely though, she likes those smart boys at Stanford who are heading into law, medicine and politics. Edge: Stanford

Game preview #2: Boston College vs. Texas Tech

2007-03-14T15:44:00.000-05:00

(7) Boston College -3 vs. (10) Texas Tech (O/U: 136.5)

The public definitely loves BC in this one and Vegas has already shifted the line accordingly. What's not to love about fading Texas Tech? They played a tough schedule in the Big-12, but didn't come up with many big wins. They were annihilated on a neutral court by Kansas State in the Big-12 quarterfinals. Many people consider them one of the weakest at-large choices. And, of course, first round flame-outs have become a Bobby Knight staple in the past decade (though to be fair, he did lead the Red Raiders to the Sweet 16 two years ago).

This is essentially a match-up of Jarius Jackson and Jared Dudley. Let no one fool you, these are "one man" teams. And both teams looked really tired at the end of the season, as if they peaked too early and ran out of gas. It's hard to imagine Tech, who will stubbornly stick to the man-to-man (or the "mandaman" as Gus Johnson would call it) will have an answer for Dudley. BC may have a trick up its sleeve however in PG Tyrese Rice, who improved greatly as the season progressed and could make Jarius Jackson work on the defensive end, somewhat neutralizing his offensive output.

The play to make: This is going to be an ugly game. Probably the ugliest game of the 1st round in the 6-11, 7-10, 8-9 match-ups. Typically in these types of games, you take the points and hope for the best, but in this situtation, I'm not sure why you'd pass up Boston College -3. I don't consider this a strong play at all, especially because the public likes BC to cover. As for the total, the Under might be a sneaky play, the 136.5 seems like a low number and the public is taking the Over, but this one should be pretty ugly and I think the Under might be the play to make if you're making a play in this game (which I don't recommend doing. I also don't recommend watching this game or caring about this game).

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: BC's Eagle is pretty formidable, but Tech's Raider Red looks like Yosemite Sam, complete with the guns. Would the Eagle out-smart him by wearing a dress and lipstick? And if the Red Raider and Bobby Knight went eagle hunting together, would Knight "accidentally" shoot Red, Dick Cheney-style? Edge: even.

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Bobby Knight definitely has bad-boy appeal, but the allure of the big city Boston and its Irish Catholic boys is too much. Edge: Boston College

Game preview #1: Maryland vs. Davidson

2007-03-14T15:36:00.000-05:00

(4) Maryland -7 vs. (13) Davidson (O/U: 155.5)

The Wildcats reached everyone's radar with their run through the SoCon tournament led by Stephen Curry, son of former NBA star Dell Curry. Of course, Maryland has a famous son of their own, D.J. Strawberry, son of former coke-head Darryl Strawberry.

Davidson does have some things going for it as a possible Cinderella besides just the big name freshman sensation. They have a balanced scoring attack, with some inside play from Boris Meno and Thomas Sanders who can probably hang with Maryland's talented but thin front-line.

The real keys here are PG play and Maryland's concentration. Both teams have inexperienced PG's who are prone to turnover streaks. A big key to the 13 vs. 4 upset is that the 4 seed gets a low amount of offensive production from their guards to offset the 13 seeds inside play, and I don't think Maryland will get much production from their back court in this game.

Also, we know Gary Williams coached teams have a tendency to fall asleep against lesser foes. Take a look at their first round matchups with UTEP in '04, UNC Wilmington in '03 and George Mason in '01. Or just look at their loss to Miami in the ACC tournament first round this year (or go back to 2003, the last time they were favored in an ACC tournament opening round game and proceeded to lose to North Carolina).

The play to make: Davidson +6.5. Davidson 1st Half +4 is good value. Davidson +253 might be worth a small chance, but don't go heavy on the ML. I have no thoughts really on the total, though I suspect this game goes over.

Who to take based on which mascot would win in a fight: Turtles are sneaky. You'd think they'd be an easy out in this, but they've got those tough shells that they can camoflauge themselves in, and possibly outlast their opponent. That being said, however, a wildcat would probably just find a rock to smash the turtle against enough times until its shell broke. Edge: Davidson.

Who Suzy from accounting is taking: Stephen Curry is a hottie, but Davidson plays out in fuckville, North Carolina and Maryland has the cuter mascot. Edge: Maryland.

The NIT and the play-in game

2007-03-14T15:27:00.000-05:00

My advice to anyone betting the NIT:

Don't do it.

Why would you bet the NIT?

Why am I constantly reading people saying they're betting on "motivation" in the NIT? If these mid-majors getting snubbed come into the NIT so motivated, then why does the NIT Final 4 year after year consist of mediocre BCS conference teams? I give credit to Old Dominion for breaking through last year, but did you look at the teams they played en route? They got to start with a terrible Colorado team. Then they took down Manhattan and Hofstra and suddenly they were playing in MSG (where they then annihilated by Michigan).

Point being: who the hell knows which teams are motivated and which aren't. And even if you did know, that's only going to tell half the story. Personally I'd love to see an NIT Final 4 of Drexel, Missouri State, Air Force and Bradley. I think that would be a lot more exciting than say West Virginia, Syracuse, Kansas State and Florida State. But it's probably not going to happen.

It's so hard to "cap" motivation in meaningless exhibition games. I always laugh to myself when people on here make their college football bowl picks based on which team is "motivated" or "snubbed", etc. This year, Boise State probably felt somewhat "snubbed" and "underappreciated" and came out and upset Oklahoma. But then remember two years when Oregon was "snubbed" and "underappreciated" by the BCS, got stuck in the Holiday Bowl and properly laid an egg and lost despite being huge favorites?

You never know how these kids are going to react in games that don't mean a damn thing.

The play-in game:

Florida A&M vs. Niagara

What does anyone know about these two teams?

I know they both have cool jerseys and cool logos. I know A&M has a sweet marching band, which I'm assuming translates to having a sweet pep band as well. I remember A&M being stuck in this silly play-in game a few years ago.

Why do they do this, by the way? I understand they want to squeeze in one more at-large bid, but come on. There are always going to be "snubbed" teams. Honestly, would the NCAA feel worse this year if Clark Kellogg's "list of snubs" was "Drexel, Kansas State, Syracuse, Illinois" instead of just "Drexel, Kansas State, Syracuse". Would this cause a serious shift in the space-time continuum.

The NCAA tournament is great because of the novelty of it. And I think the play-in game really ruins the novelty for the kids on these two teams, one of them is going to miss out on the true NCAA Tournament atmosphere that you just can't get from a game between two nobody schools in front of a half-full crowd in Dayton on a Tuesday night. Why not make the play-in game between Arkansas and Illinois? Why not a 16-team play-in game tournament with all the top "bubble" teams? Why not put the game in Miami or Vegas or MSG so at least these kids can feel like they get some kind of reward of this?

But anyway, as for the game itself, those who are making their picks based on "motivation" are going to have a hard time here. See if you can guess which quote came from which head coach:

1) "If we're the 65th best team in this tournament this year, that surprises me. I don't think that's possible."
2) "We feel disrespected, I'm sure you'll be able to see when we play on Tuesday how disrespected we feel."

The answer: it doesn't matter. Though slight edge I suppose to quote #2, that sounds a little more "rallying" and "motivational."

Niagara seems to have most of the intangibles going for them. They feel a little more "snubbed" because they really properly deserved to be a straight 16 seed, if not a 15 seed. That is the interesting sideplot of this game: why is Niagara in it? Did the committee want to avoid yet another battle of black schools by putting in Jackson State as a straight 16? Or are they punishing the Purple Eagles for their off-court "discretions" earlier this year? Of course, if that was the case, I'd have to imagine the Gonzaga "Dude, the basketball is talking to me" Bulldogs would've been lower than a 10 seed.

Also, Florida A&M is likely tired, having to travel overnight after their victory on Saturday, while Niagara has been sitting at home since March 5th. Or maybe Florida A&M has the advantage because they're a bunch of viral 19-to-22 year olds and this is just keeping them focused while Niagara will be rusty?

I'm guessing there's not a lot of people in the general public making a play on this one, but the ones who are are heavily favoring Niagara laying the 8.5 points. Folks, that's three, arguably four possessions. Why would you lay three-to-four possessions in a game like this?

The play to make is either Florida A&M +8.5 or no play at all. I'll probably stick with the latter, though making a very small bet on Florida A&M +410 over at Matchbook is very enticing.

Update #1: By the way, I meant "virile" not "viral". Even "virile" was a silly word to use there, unless Tom Brady plays for them.

Update #2: The play-in game went about as expected. Congrats to all the Florida A&M backers, that must have been a barn-burner. Which makes you realize, why would you bet a game like that?

Everyone's "sure thing" Drexel got beat in the NIT. So last night you had two teams who were "better motivated" and "more rested" and they both failed to cover.

I probably won't make any plays today for the Thursday games, I don't like to make plays until game day. However, I will be breaking down every game in here as the day goes on and revealing which picks I likely will be playing.

1st Round Upsets: Initial Thoughts

2007-03-14T15:24:00.000-05:00

A few thoughts on potential first round upsets:

1) Old Dominion over Butler (reminds me of: Montana over Nevada, '06). Butler played terrific at the beginning of the season, but really slumped as things progressed. At the end of the year, they were arguably not even the best team in the Horizon conference. Old Dominion has all the makings of a class cinderella: they can shoot the 3, their guards are experienced and protect the ball, they have a bona fide inside presence in Vasilyus, and they have solid upper-classmen leadership (they start 3 seniors and 2 juniors).

2) Winthrop over Notre Dame (reminds me of: Southern Illinois over Texas Tech, '02). Sometimes an 11-over-6 upset is just meant to be, even if everyone sees it coming. Notre Dame maybe deserved better after a decent showing in the Big East tournament, but they drew a 6 seed and the toughest possible 11 seed, a Winthrop school that's ready to finally break through and make some noise in the big dance.

3) Illinois over Virginia Tech (reminds me of: Missouri over Miami, '02). People are saying the pressure is on Illinois to prove they belong in this tournament and that the Big-10 deserved the 6 bids it got. I always thought this was a little silly... isn't the pressure of playing in the NCAA tournament enough pressure as is? Virginia Tech had a solid year, but no one on this team, be it players or staff, has any extensive experience in tournaments of any kind. The Hokies, a senior-laden team, took advantage of an off-year for several ACC powerhouses to nab a 5 seed, but the Illini's inside presence could really cause them problems.

4) VCU over Duke (reminds me of: UAB over LSU, '05). Most people who know what they're talking about would argue Duke doesn't even deserve this high a seed, while the public at large is probably amazed to see them this low. I've never been a big fan of picking games based on where teams "should" be seeded (picking upsets based on teams seeded "too high" or "too low"). Duke matches up relatively well, and should be able to dominate VCU inside in this game. Most factors point to this being the final case, and that last year was the mojo year for the CAA teams. But I'm not willing to accept that, I think VCU's guard play will dominate Duke all over the floor and Coach K will once again look silly and outcoached in a one-game situation.

A few upsets I haven't been able to talk myself into:

1) Holy Cross over Southern Illinois (reminds me of: Boston College over Penn, '05); (could remind me of: Tulsa over Dayton, '03). So Ill plays some tough defense, so you're not going to sneak up and shoot them out of the building. That's for damn sure. Holy Cross seems poised to break through after a few near misses over the last few years, but I get the feeling the Salukis are just too good and well-coached to let the Crusaders hang around.

2) Wright State over Pittsburgh (reminds me of: Georgia Tech over Northern Iowa, '04); (could remind me of: Northwestern State over Iowa, '06). I don't think Pitt deserves so high a seed, and I don't think Wright State deserves so low of one. But I also don't think that necessarily means Wright State can pull this upset. I will give them a chance to cover the number though.

3) Arkansas over USC (reminds me of: Villanova over New Mexico, '05); (could remind me of: UNC Wilmington over USC, '02). Yes, the similarities are somewhat freaky to the 2002 tournament where an overachieving USC team made it to the Pac-10 Finals, was blown out by Oregon, stumbled into the tournament tired and unattentive and got properly upset in round 1. Two major differences: Henry Bibby is no longer the coach (though sadly, Tim Floyd now is); and Arkansas doesn't really deserve to be here in the first place (similar to the Lobos in '05).

4) Oral Roberts over Washington State (reminds me of: Mississippi over Iona, '01); (could remind me of: Bucknell over Kansas, '05). The last time I can remember a 14-seed getting this much credit as a possible Cinderella was Iona in 2001, who gave Ole Miss their best shot and came up short. Everyone expects Wazzu to flame out early this year and shoot back into mediocrity. I see them probably reaching the Sweet 16 or beyond. By the way, a 14 seed has upset a 3 seed two years running, so the odds of it happening three years in a row are miniscule at best.

5) Long Beach State over Tennessee (reminds me of: Wisconsin over Weber State, '03); (could remind me of: Pacific over Providence, '04). Typically the 12 and 13 seeds who pull upsets are teams who have been to the tournament within the last couple years, so their players and coaches have the big game experience. The LBC hasn't been to the big dance in over a decade. However, Tennessee seems like the typical 5-seed ripe for an upset, and Long Beach has the senior leadership and outside shooting typical of a 12-seed Cinderella.

6) Albany over Virginia (reminds me of: Cincinnati over East Tennessee State, '03); (could remind me of: Kent State over Indiana, '01). Similar to the game above, this one just doesn't "feel" like an upset to me, which is too bad because Virginia is coming into this tournament ripe for an upset. It's sad that either Virginia or Tennessee is going to make the Sweet 16, neither really deserves it and neither will give Ohio State any trouble. In a perfect world, Tennessee would have gotten stuck in a match-up with Old Dominion while Virginia would've drawn Davidson.

Ohio State vs Florida

2007-01-04T16:21:00.000-05:00

Matt: this game is reminding you of ohio state-miami a few years ago
Scott: with osu as miami?
Matt: yep
Scott: i don't think osu is as cocky and arrogant as miami was
Scott: they won't underestimate florida
Scott: and larry coker can't hold tressell jock
Matt: we'll see... i like jim tressell, but i think urban myer is a great coach too
Scott: yeah, he is
Scott: and they had some great teams to play too
Matt: larry coker is a joke
Matt: that miami team was stacked though
Matt: yeah, i'd say florida is more battle tested in general
Scott: we shall see
Matt: what bowl was that? fiesta bowl?
Scott: yeah
Matt: ken dorsey
Scott: dorsey, winslow, mcgahee
Matt: roscoe parrish
Matt: andre johnson
Scott: that's the game mcgahee's knee was blown out
Matt: sean taylor
Scott: vilma and dj williams
Matt: antrel rolle
Matt: got called for that phantom pass interfernce
Scott: the play i remember the most is when sean taylor intercepted krentzel and maurice clarret chased him down and rip the ball away from him
Scott: that interception would have clinched the win for miami
Matt: yeah i remember that too
Matt: frank gore was on that team
Matt: vince wilfork
Matt: orien harris
Matt: wasn't there another late play where miami had a huge pass play but then the guy fumbled downfield when they could've just put the game away with a score
Scott: yeah, but frank gore never played
Scott: gore was supposed to start over mcgahee until gore got hurt again
Scott: i don't remember a fumble
Matt: yeah i swear late the 4th
Matt: what was the score at the end of regulation?
Scott: i don't remember
Matt: ohio state tied it with a late FG right?
Scott: yeah, i think so. mike nugent
Matt: yeah, i swear their game-tying drive... it happened b/c miami was up 3 and driving and dorsey hit someone downfield for a big gain, but then he fumbled
Matt: maybe i'm crazy
Matt: those are the top 3 games of the decade right... the '03 fiesta bowl, the '06 rose bowl and the '07 fiesta bowl
Scott: i would say so
Scott: they're definitely the ones that stand out to me
Matt: i think the '06 rose bowl is the biggest
Matt: ohio state-miami had more stars... but texas-usc had the 3 biggest stars
Scott: i don't know. it's in your memory more so than the miami-osu game
Matt: that's true
Matt: but i don't think we'll ever see a game again where we can truly say the 3 greatest college players in the country are all out on the field
Matt: miami never really recovered from losing that game did they?
Matt: isn't it funny how the next day we all thought willis mcgahee was done for his career and the sky was the limit for maurice clarett
Scott: yeah, that's true
Scott: how much things change
Matt: it's a tough call, those were 2 huge games
Scott: yeah, they were great games and both for all the marbles
Scott: it doesn't get any better than that
Matt: nope
Matt: what were the great games of this decade?
Matt: we've had a couple great super bowls
Scott: yeah, rams-pats
Matt: was rams-titans technically in '99 or '00?
Scott: panthers-pats
Scott: rams-titans
Matt: yeah, those are 3 of the all-time greatest super bowls
Scott: i think it was the 99 season, but the 00 superbowl
Matt: i think you're right
Matt: the music city miracle game
Scott: that kentucky lsu game where they dumped gatorade on the kentucky coach just before they lost the game
Scott: that was a hilarious game because of that
Matt: yeah, that hail mary
Matt: yeah it was
Matt: i can't think of any other football games even worth mentioning
Matt: the pats-raiders snow game maybe
Scott: yeah, that was a good game
Matt: remember the rams-bucs NFC title game the year the rams won it all?
Matt: that was a classic
Scott: yeah, that was another good one
Scott: the colts-steelers game last year
Matt: yeah, i just thought of that one too
Scott: that niners playoff game where TO caught the game winning TD pass from steve young Matt: that was awesome
Matt: was that 2000?
Matt: against the packers right?
Scott: i think that was before thatMatt: i think it was '99
Scott: yeah, i think the packers
Matt: i think that was the year the falcons made the super bowl
Scott: i think the niners lost the falcons the next week
Matt: yep
Matt: and then that falcons-vikings classic
Matt: game 7 red sox-yankees in '03, games 4 and 5 red sox-yankees in '04
Scott: yeah, there are a lot of great red sox yankees games
Scott: how about the game that a-rod got punched in the face by the catcher? now that's a great game